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Topic: Unofficial Official MACC Probabliities Thread
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Athens
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Posted: 11/23/2025 6:07 PM
SportSource is not second to last this season.

https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2025/11/12/FB_111225543...

MAC Football Championship Tiebreaker
Championship Game Participants


A. The participating teams shall be decided by conference winning percentage. In the event of a tie, the following tiebreak formula shall be used to determine which team(s) will participate in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.


B. Scenario – Two Teams
1. Head – to - head competition between the two tied teams.

2. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

3. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee.


C. Scenario – More than Two Teams
1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

5. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

6. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee
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Last Edited: 11/23/2025 6:08:26 PM by Athens
L.C.
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Posted: 11/24/2025 10:47 AM
FormerMember wrote:expand_more
It's pretty obvious right now...

The tiebreakers are silly and ridiculous but Miami gets in if there's a 3-way tiebreaker between them, Toledo and us because of the stupid common opponents BS and not eliminating MU despite them losing to Toledo and us.

Toledo gets in with a win and either a Ohio or Miami loss.

Ohio basically needs a crazy miracle at this point.

You have it exactly. Head to head should be the primary determinant. The rule starts fine, that if all tied teams have played all the other teams, then win percentage among those games should decide. What is missing is what should come next:
1. If one team has beaten all of the other tied teams, it advances <-- This is there
2. If one team has lost to all of the other tied team, it is eliminated. <-- This is missing

Thus, in a three way tie between Ohio, Miami, and Toledo, Ohio is 1-0, Miami is 1-1, and Toledo is 0-2. What should happen is that Toledo is eliminated, having lost to both, and then Miami is eliminated, having lost to Ohio. That's the way it used to work, I'm pretty sure. Now, instead, since Ohio didn't play Toledo, you skip the head to head and move to into the sketchy tiebreakers. It used to be that the only way to moved to the next tiebreaker was in the situation where A beat B, B beat C, and C beat A.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Last Edited: 11/24/2025 10:51:55 AM by L.C.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/24/2025 12:37 PM
I'm still as confused about this as ever, but if CMU beats UT, and we beat the Beefs and Miami loses its last game, CMU has some mythical tie-breaker over us? Say it ain't so, Joe!
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Shawn Sellers
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Posted: 11/24/2025 4:32 PM
https://getsomemaction.com/news/2025/11/24/2025-mac-footb...

The MAC has 3 of the 16 scenarios, that the bobcats get in:
These winners this week get us in:
1. WMU, Ohio, Ball State, CMU
2. EMU, Ohio, Miami, CMU
3. EMU, Ohio, Ball State, CMU

I should say, this is all based on current analytics. The final analytics will be updated on the morning of Sunday, Nov 30th
Last Edited: 11/24/2025 4:36:03 PM by Shawn Sellers
Shawn Sellers
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Posted: 11/24/2025 4:57 PM
Last Edited: 11/24/2025 5:00:43 PM by Shawn Sellers
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 11/24/2025 5:47 PM
Shawn Sellers wrote:expand_more
https://getsomemaction.com/news/2025/11/24/2025-mac-footb...

The MAC has 3 of the 16 scenarios, that the bobcats get in:
These winners this week get us in:
1. WMU, Ohio, Ball State, CMU
2. EMU, Ohio, Miami, CMU
3. EMU, Ohio, Ball State, CMU

I should say, this is all based on current analytics. The final analytics will be updated on the morning of Sunday, Nov 30th
It's right here in black and white and I still don't follow lol



I can't believe we lost to Ball State. What a mess we got ourselves in.
Last Edited: 11/24/2025 5:48:07 PM by M.D.W.S.T
mf279801
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Posted: 11/24/2025 6:26 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
SportSource is not second to last this season.

https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2025/11/12/FB_111225543...

MAC Football Championship Tiebreaker
Championship Game Participants


A. The participating teams shall be decided by conference winning percentage. In the event of a tie, the following tiebreak formula shall be used to determine which team(s) will participate in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.


B. Scenario – Two Teams
1. Head – to - head competition between the two tied teams.

2. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

3. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee.


C. Scenario – More than Two Teams
1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

5. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

6. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee
Oh damn, I missed that newer tie-breaker procedure pagr
StevenTimothyVitte
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Posted: 11/24/2025 7:11 PM
Shawn Sellers wrote:expand_more
https://getsomemaction.com/news/2025/11/24/2025-mac-footb...

The MAC has 3 of the 16 scenarios, that the bobcats get in:
These winners this week get us in:
1. WMU, Ohio, Ball State, CMU
2. EMU, Ohio, Miami, CMU
3. EMU, Ohio, Ball State, CMU

I should say, this is all based on current analytics. The final analytics will be updated on the morning of Sunday, Nov 30th
MAC leadership needs to change their tiebreaker system next year. I'm not budging from this stance.

Direct head-to-head win over a team you're tied with not mattering, and instead combined win % over common opponents meaning everything is flat out stupid.
Diamond Cat
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Posted: 11/24/2025 7:16 PM
If that's the 3 options for us to get in, #2 seems like the only possible probability to me. Fiami has new life given the surprise QB play. Any scenario with Ball sack winning is a non starter.
ExCat21
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Posted: 11/24/2025 7:20 PM
Glad I was right. Only scenario I didn't see was the potential repeat of the MAC Championship. No more guessing now:

https://x.com/TheMSCPodcast/status/1993092006395232290?t=...
Victory
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Posted: 11/24/2025 8:36 PM
Athens
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Posted: 11/24/2025 9:05 PM
Scenario #11 – Central Michigan vs. Miami**
EMU def. WMU
Buffalo def. Ohio
Miami def. Ball State
CMU def. Toledo

CMU/Miami/WMU tie (6-2)

Tiebreaker Step #1: All three tied teams did not play head-to-head
Tiebreaker Step #2: No team defeated each of the other two teams
Tiebreaker Step #3: CMU 2-0, Miami 1-1, WMU 1-1 vs. common opponents (EMU, Toledo)
CMU clinches berth
Revert to two-team tiebreaker between Miami/WMU
Tiebreaker step #1: Miami def. WMU head-to-head; Miami clinches berth

This scenario has CMU vs. Miami in a title game. What is the point of tie-breaker #2 if it was already established the teams didn't play head-to-head?

This is a good resource for the future at least. They are reseting tie-breakers when teams are eliminated in this release.

Based on the percent of scenarios included here are the chances.

Western Michigan 75%
Toledo 44%
Miami 44%
Ohio 19%
Central Michigan 19%
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Shawn Sellers
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Posted: 11/24/2025 11:03 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
Scenario #11 – Central Michigan vs. Miami**
EMU def. WMU
Buffalo def. Ohio
Miami def. Ball State
CMU def. Toledo

CMU/Miami/WMU tie (6-2)

Tiebreaker Step #1: All three tied teams did not play head-to-head
Tiebreaker Step #2: No team defeated each of the other two teams
Tiebreaker Step #3: CMU 2-0, Miami 1-1, WMU 1-1 vs. common opponents (EMU, Toledo)
CMU clinches berth
Revert to two-team tiebreaker between Miami/WMU
Tiebreaker step #1: Miami def. WMU head-to-head; Miami clinches berth

This scenario has CMU vs. Miami in a title game. What is the point of tie-breaker #2 if it was already established the teams didn't play head-to-head?
Not defending the tiebreaker rules entirely, but I think the purpose of tiebreaker #2 is to avoid this problem with tiebreaker #1:

3 way tie tiebreaker #1 head to head:
Team A: 2-0
Team B: 0-1
Team C 0-1

This would require a move on to tiebreaker #2, since all weren’t common opponents. Tiebreaker #2 would fix that problem. But the other thing they should have considered is eliminating a team that was 0-2 against the other 3 way tie teams.
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 11/25/2025 12:42 PM
So it appears if Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan tonight, then the result of the Ball State-Miami game doesn't matter for Ohio. In that case, the Bobcats need to beat Buffalo and have Toledo lose to Central Michigan. If Western Michigan wins tonight, then Ohio also needs Ball State to beat Miami.

All of that is assuming the teams stay in the same SportsSource ranking order. If Ohio somehow passed Toledo in the rankings, despite both teams winning, there would be other scenarios that could get the Bobcats into the championship game.
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 11/25/2025 12:55 PM
Some BAers, perhaps mostly me, have bemoaned the uneven conference scheduling that's unavoidable in conferences with 13 (MAC) to 18 (SEC) teams. Most of my focus has been on how it affects which two teams qualify for league championship games.

These uneven scheduling also have an impact on the 12-team playoff selection process. Texas A&M is undefeated and has so far earned a spot in the playoffs. But what if the Aggies lose this weekend to Texas?? Should the selection committee strongly consider that there are currently seven SEC teams below the Aggies in the CFP Top 25 and Texas A&M hasn't played one? In other words, how much emphasis is put on strength of schedule? Or what about Oregon, also currently in the playoffs with just 1 loss. They played only its second game against a CFP Top 25 team this past weekend, beating an average USC team at home. It's other game against a CFP Top 25 team was also at home but ended in a 10-point loss to Indiana.
Shawn Sellers
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Posted: 11/25/2025 1:43 PM
UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more
So it appears if Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan tonight, then the result of the Ball State-Miami game doesn't matter for Ohio. In that case, the Bobcats need to beat Buffalo and have Toledo lose to Central Michigan. If Western Michigan wins tonight, then Ohio also needs Ball State to beat Miami.

All of that is assuming the teams stay in the same SportsSource ranking order. If Ohio somehow passed Toledo in the rankings, despite both teams winning, there would be other scenarios that could get the Bobcats into the championship game.

Edit:

Toledo has two scenario tiebreaker with analytics with us and that is scenario #14 and Scenario #6 where Ohio/Ball St/Toledo win this week. EMU/WMU does not matter. So I suppose that is a prayer chance.
Last Edited: 11/25/2025 1:49:18 PM by Shawn Sellers
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 11/25/2025 2:33 PM
Also, Ohio has to remain ahead of Central Michigan in the ranking or it does not have any chance.
ExCat21
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Posted: 11/25/2025 2:58 PM
CMU won't beat us out in the Analytics ranking. We would go before them.
mf279801
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Posted: 11/25/2025 4:04 PM
mf279801 wrote:expand_more
SportSource is not second to last this season.

https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2025/11/12/FB_111225543...

MAC Football Championship Tiebreaker
Championship Game Participants


A. The participating teams shall be decided by conference winning percentage. In the event of a tie, the following tiebreak formula shall be used to determine which team(s) will participate in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.


B. Scenario – Two Teams
1. Head – to - head competition between the two tied teams.

2. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

3. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

6. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee.


C. Scenario – More than Two Teams
1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

5. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

6. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee
Oh damn, I missed that newer tie-breaker procedure pagr
So actually having re-run my analysis, the rule change essentially doesn't matter: under the old tie-breakers we and CMU are pitted against each others Sport Source Analytics rankings in 6/64 scenarios and now we have that same change in 12/64 scenarios (the difference being down to the NIU/Kent game outcome no longer really mattering)

Still and all, massively beind the 8-ball thanks to our loss to Ball State (or our loss to WMU, take your pick)
mf279801
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Posted: 11/25/2025 4:08 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
Some BAers, perhaps mostly me, have bemoaned the uneven conference scheduling that's unavoidable in conferences with 13 (MAC) to 18 (SEC) teams. Most of my focus has been on how it affects which two teams qualify for league championship games.

These uneven scheduling also have an impact on the 12-team playoff selection process. Texas A&M is undefeated and has so far earned a spot in the playoffs. But what if the Aggies lose this weekend to Texas?? Should the selection committee strongly consider that there are currently seven SEC teams below the Aggies in the CFP Top 25 and Texas A&M hasn't played one? In other words, how much emphasis is put on strength of schedule? Or what about Oregon, also currently in the playoffs with just 1 loss. They played only its second game against a CFP Top 25 team this past weekend, beating an average USC team at home. It's other game against a CFP Top 25 team was also at home but ended in a 10-point loss to Indiana.
Even under divisions you've got unequal schedules: did the MAC-West team draw Akron and Kent, or did they draw Miami and Ohio; did the the SEC-West team draw Georgia and Vanderbilt, or did they draw Kentucky and Florida (lol).

Outside of true round-robin schedules within a conference, its all going to be unbalanced to a greater or lesser degree.
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 11/25/2025 4:25 PM
mf279801 wrote:expand_more
Even under divisions you've got unequal schedules: did the MAC-West team draw Akron and Kent, or did they draw Miami and Ohio; did the the SEC-West team draw Georgia and Vanderbilt, or did they draw Kentucky and Florida (lol).

Outside of true round-robin schedules within a conference, its all going to be unbalanced to a greater or lesser degree.
I understand this argument, which is why I'm not too strongly in favor of divisions. But I think the more teams in a conference, the more chances of uneven schedule difficulties.

This wasn't a problem when the Big 10 was truly a 10-team conference. Or when the MAC had 10 teams. Reason #276 for the good ole days of college sports.
ExCat21
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Posted: 11/25/2025 7:57 PM
I would love for us to go to 16 teams. Probably a good reason to go back to divisions then so each team can play the 8 teams on their side and 4 non-con games. Can we just snatch up Eastern Kentucky, Long Island and Southern Illinois already. We can even do PODs of 4's then. Eastern KY, BG, OU and Miami would be a nice POD.
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Posted: 11/25/2025 10:38 PM
so western is in. so go ball state and Central….right?
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 11/26/2025 1:01 AM
cc-cat wrote:expand_more
so western is in. so go ball state and Central….right?
Yes, gotta have help from those two in addition to winning.
77 Mulberry
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Posted: 11/26/2025 6:00 PM
If Northern Illinois University (NIU) wins against Kent State, the score's significance for Ohio University (OU) in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) Championship hinges on several factors:

Score Implications for Ohio University
Condition Details
Just a Win or Margin: NIU must win against Kent State to help Ohio's chances.
Tiebreaker Situations: A significant margin (e.g., 14+ points) may help Ohio in tiebreakers if it ends up with a similar record to other teams.
Ohio's Required Win: Ohio must beat Buffalo on the same day for the situation to matter.
Other Game Outcomes: OU also needs specific outcomes from other games (e.g., Ball State upsetting Miami) to support their championship hopes.
Key Points to Consider
Margin of Victory: While a win by NIU is necessary, a larger margin of victory (e.g., 14 points or more) could improve OU's standing in tiebreaker scenarios. A decisive NIU win might signal dominance, affecting perceptions of OU's comparative strength.
Overall Record: Ohio's chances of making the championship depend on their win against Buffalo, combined with an NIU victory. The overall records of competing teams will dictate tiebreaker scenarios.
Dependent Outcomes: Besides winning their game, Ohio would need specific results in other matchups to secure its place in the championship, adding complexity to the scoring implications of the NIU-Kent State match.
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