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Topic: Unofficial Official MACC Probabliities Thread
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OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/13/2025 9:31 PM
I thought that all this conjecture deserved its own special thread. It's now in two different threads.

I'll start off with new projections from playoffstatus.com. You can find their full prediction here: https://tinyurl.com/2mp99j4c

The top four in terms of participation in the MACC are:

WMU -- 90%
Ohio -- 32%
CMU -- 21%
UT -- 21%

However, if we make to Detroit, they only give us a 17 percent chance of winning.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Athens
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Posted: 11/13/2025 10:11 PM
My Detroit chances updated with the MAC tie-breaker rules

WMU 90% (Miami does have tie breaker, WMU has to lose out for UT/OU)
Ohio 60% (Win out and have Ball win 1 of remaining 3)
Toledo 42% (vs. Ball and @CMU not easy)
Miami 9% (Win out need both Ohio & Toledo to lose)
Ball St 6% (have to win out against EMU, @Toledo, @Miami)
CMU 4% (Win out and need both Ohio & Miami to lose)
Buffalo 3% (Win out and CMU drops 1 & BG over Akron)
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
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2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
Diamond Cat
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Posted: 11/13/2025 10:29 PM
Ball-less U is a non factor. Yes, they beat us. Check out their conference only stats. Horrible. They may beat EMU but they end with 2 road games @Toledo and @Fiami. See ya.
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 11/14/2025 9:12 AM
TWT wrote:expand_more
My Detroit chances updated with the MAC tie-breaker rules

WMU 90% (Miami does have tie breaker, WMU has to lose out for UT/OU)
Ohio 60% (Win out and have Ball win 1 of remaining 3)
Toledo 42% (vs. Ball and @CMU not easy)
Miami 9% (Win out need both Ohio & Toledo to lose)
Ball St 6% (have to win out against EMU, @Toledo, @Miami)
CMU 4% (Win out and need both Ohio & Miami to lose)
Buffalo 3% (Win out and CMU drops 1 & BG over Akron)
What if Toledo wins out? Which I think will happen with ease.

Even if OU wins out, Toledo will leap frog them - correct?

So the entire season comes down to OU finishing strong - and BALL STATE to pull another one out of their ass?
Last Edited: 11/14/2025 9:12:45 AM by M.D.W.S.T
AlexBobcats
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Posted: 11/14/2025 10:19 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
My Detroit chances updated with the MAC tie-breaker rules

WMU 90% (Miami does have tie breaker, WMU has to lose out for UT/OU)
Ohio 60% (Win out and have Ball win 1 of remaining 3)
Toledo 42% (vs. Ball and @CMU not easy)
Miami 9% (Win out need both Ohio & Toledo to lose)
Ball St 6% (have to win out against EMU, @Toledo, @Miami)
CMU 4% (Win out and need both Ohio & Miami to lose)
Buffalo 3% (Win out and CMU drops 1 & BG over Akron)
What if Toledo wins out? Which I think will happen with ease.

Even if OU wins out, Toledo will leap frog them - correct?

So the entire season comes down to OU finishing strong - and BALL STATE to pull another one out of their ass?
This is where I was up until last night a guy on Reddit posted to r/MidAmerican claiming that a 3 way tie could put Miami in over us? Even if we win out. He claims the tiebreaker for 3 teams is different than what we have all been saying…he has “verified with school and conference officials”
spongeBOB CATpants
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Posted: 11/14/2025 11:04 AM
The conference should lay it all out so people can follow along with some clarity.
StevenTimothyVitte
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Posted: 11/14/2025 11:31 AM
AlexBobcats wrote:expand_more
My Detroit chances updated with the MAC tie-breaker rules

WMU 90% (Miami does have tie breaker, WMU has to lose out for UT/OU)
Ohio 60% (Win out and have Ball win 1 of remaining 3)
Toledo 42% (vs. Ball and @CMU not easy)
Miami 9% (Win out need both Ohio & Toledo to lose)
Ball St 6% (have to win out against EMU, @Toledo, @Miami)
CMU 4% (Win out and need both Ohio & Miami to lose)
Buffalo 3% (Win out and CMU drops 1 & BG over Akron)
What if Toledo wins out? Which I think will happen with ease.

Even if OU wins out, Toledo will leap frog them - correct?

So the entire season comes down to OU finishing strong - and BALL STATE to pull another one out of their ass?
This is where I was up until last night a guy on Reddit posted to r/MidAmerican claiming that a 3 way tie could put Miami in over us? Even if we win out. He claims the tiebreaker for 3 teams is different than what we have all been saying…he has “verified with school and conference officials”
The dude has it wrong, and he's acting like he has an axe to grind against us. We and Toledo both beat Miami head-to-head. We have the tiebreaker over them. Miami should not factor into any of this unless we and Toledo completely collapse.

We should be concerned about Toledo and Ball State (uh-huh...) because they have certain edges over us.
Athens
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Posted: 11/14/2025 11:50 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
My Detroit chances updated with the MAC tie-breaker rules

WMU 90% (Miami does have tie breaker, WMU has to lose out for UT/OU)
Ohio 60% (Win out and have Ball win 1 of remaining 3)
Toledo 42% (vs. Ball and @CMU not easy)
Miami 9% (Win out need both Ohio & Toledo to lose)
Ball St 6% (have to win out against EMU, @Toledo, @Miami)
CMU 4% (Win out and need both Ohio & Miami to lose)
Buffalo 3% (Win out and CMU drops 1 & BG over Akron)
What if Toledo wins out? Which I think will happen with ease.

Even if OU wins out, Toledo will leap frog them - correct?

So the entire season comes down to OU finishing strong - and BALL STATE to pull another one out of their ass?
Reposting from another thread.

Scenario – More than Two Teams

1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all
tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_ ...

#1 Toledo/Miami/Ohio finish tied at 6-2.
1. Tied teams not opponents so doesn't apply.
2. Toledo and Ohio both beat Miami so they advance.
3. Win percentage against common opponents Toledo & Ohio have the same.
4. Win percentage based on order of finish Ball State > Bowling Green
5. Toledo has a better win percentage because didn't play UMass.

#2 CMU/Miami/Ohio finish tied at 6-2.
1. Tied teams not opponents so doesn't apply.
2. Ohio beat Miami so they advance.

#3 Ball St/Ohio finish tied at 6-2.
1. Ball State beat Ohio so they advance.

If BG and Ball State both finish 3-5 in MAC play then Toledo would edge Ohio out beause of better MAC strength of schedule.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
BryanHall
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Posted: 11/14/2025 11:59 AM
I am trying to figure out if the Bobcats win the next two, how can they NOT make it in? The only thing I see here is that they will not make it if Ball State loses all three of its games. Is there any other way they don't make it?

My feeling is that if they lose to Buffalo, they don't deserve to be in, so I don't care.
Athens
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Posted: 11/14/2025 12:14 PM
BryanHall wrote:expand_more
I am trying to figure out if the Bobcats win the next two, how can they NOT make it in? The only thing I see here is that they will not make it if Ball State loses all three of its games. Is there any other way they don't make it?

My feeling is that if they lose to Buffalo, they don't deserve to be in, so I don't care.
Miami with Finn out is more susceptible to a loss. Should it become a two way tie between Ohio & CMU and Ball St finishes tied with Akron then it could be a problem depending on where NIU, Kent finish. Of course CMU has to play both Kent and Toledo which are by no means easy for them.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
Victory
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Posted: 11/14/2025 7:26 PM
Toledo is now the betting favorite for the MACC over WMU. That indicates to me that Toledo wins close to all of the most likely tiebreakers. We are down at 8 or 10 to 1 in 4th below Miami.
OUbobcat9092
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Posted: 11/15/2025 1:12 PM
We wnat EMU to beat Ball St. today?
Bring Back Men's Track & Field
Athens
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Posted: 11/15/2025 1:39 PM
OUbobcat9092 wrote:expand_more
We wnat EMU to beat Ball St. today?
No because they need to finish above BG for that tie-breaker to hold over Toledo. With their poor performance today it looks as if they'll finsh 3-5 in the MAC with both Toledo and Miami left on the schedule. If they appeared strong in loss they'd have a real chance against Miami at least.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
StevenTimothyVitte
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Posted: 11/15/2025 2:39 PM
On one hand, I don't mind Ball State losing to EMU because they're no longer a direct threat to us for any tiebreakers.

On the other hand, we really could use a Ball State win vs. Toledo which would give us distance from the Rockets. So yeah...
Athens
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Posted: 11/15/2025 3:27 PM
**Updated from results of 11/15**

Scenario – More than Two Teams

1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all
tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_ ...

#1 Toledo/Miami/Ohio finish tied at 6-2.
1. Tied teams not opponents so doesn't apply.
2. Toledo and Ohio both beat Miami so they advance.
3. Win percentage against common opponents Toledo & Ohio have the same.
4. Win percentage based on order of finish Ball St. 3-3 > Bowling Green 1-5.
5. Toledo has a better combined win percentage because didn't play UMass.

#2 CMU/Ohio finish tied at 6-2.
1. Tied teams not opponents so doesn't apply.
2. Both have same record against common (1 loss to WMU).
3. Win percentage vs. common opponents losses BSU/Akron not connected.
4. Combined win percentage of conference Akron 3-4 > NIU 2-4

CMU has the stronger tie-breaker at the moment than Toledo. The easiest path for Ohio is if Toledo wins out and Akron beats Bowling Green. With a 6th MAC loss BG finishes behind Ball St.

Tie-Breaker remaining schedule:

Ball St (3-3) at Toledo, at Miami
Akron (3-4) at Bowling Green
Northern Illinois (2-4) vs WMU vs Kent St.
Bowling Green (1-5) vs. Akron, at UMass
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
Last Edited: 11/15/2025 3:29:05 PM by Athens
Athens
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Posted: 11/15/2025 3:59 PM
My Detroit chances 11/5 update:

WMU 90% (Miami does have tie breaker, WMU has to lose out for UT/OU)
Ohio 49% (Win out and keep tie-breaker over Toledo/CMU)
Toledo 16% (Win out over BSU/CMU and have BG finish 3-5)
CMU 8% (Win out, Miami to lose & Akron finish above Ball/BG)
Miami 5% (Win out need both OU/UT to lose, has tie breaker over CMU)
Buffalo 4% (Win out and have UT/CMU both lose)
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
Last Edited: 11/15/2025 4:00:23 PM by Athens
cc-cat
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Posted: 11/15/2025 5:56 PM
OK - Too many numbers and scenarios. Make it easy for me.

Ohio wins out - what needs to happen for us to play in MACC?
L.C.
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Posted: 11/15/2025 6:15 PM
IDK, but at this point I want Ball State to win out and CMU to lose to Toledo. That makes it easy.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 11/16/2025 3:14 PM
cc-cat wrote:expand_more
OK - Too many numbers and scenarios. Make it easy for me.

Ohio wins out - what needs to happen for us to play in MACC?
Toledo lose.

CMU lose.

Neither CMU nor Toledo gets to 6–2, so the only 6–2 teams are:
• Western (7–1 or 6–2)
• Ohio 6–2
• Maybe Miami 6–2 (own the head-to-head ).


• It’s gonna come down to the common-opponent tiebreaks.
• The edge will likely come down to:
• How strong Ohio’s MAC opponents finish
• How strong Toledo/CMU’s MAC opponents finish

It’s coming down to a calculator. I’d bank on it.
Tymaster
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Posted: 11/17/2025 8:09 AM
Team Record Champ Game
Western Michigan 5 1 44% 89%
Ohio 4 2 19% 36%
Toledo 4 2 12% 23%
Central Michigan 4 2 11% 22%
Miami OH 4 2 7% 15%
Buffalo 4 2 6% 14%
Ball State 3 3 1% 1%

Playoff Status dot com
Maryland Bobcat
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Posted: 11/17/2025 10:57 AM
This scenario (UT and CMU each losing) will be tough. CMU and Toledo play each other the last week so someone will lost 3. It will require Toledo to either lose at Kent or CMU to lose vs Ball St - neither which is likely.
77 Mulberry
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Posted: 11/17/2025 9:04 PM
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 11/18/2025 9:55 AM
77 Mulberry wrote:expand_more
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 11/18/2025 10:07 AM
colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…
We're gonna be on the outside looking through a dirty window all because we lost to f*cking BALL.STATE.
spongeBOB CATpants
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Posted: 11/18/2025 10:13 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…
We're gonna be on the outside looking through a dirty window all because we lost to f*cking BALL.STATE.
This is the way I'm seeing it too. Toledo has a much more favorable scenario as of right now than we do.

If I'm following this right, (not confident I am) its all going to come down to the CMU vs Toledo game. As long as we take care of Buffalo on the road.

But what if CMU beats Toledo and is tied with us?
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