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Topic: Ohio's MACC hopes aren't dead yet!
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OhioBobcat
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Posted: 11/12/2019 4:22 PM
There's been a lot of talk on the board about Ohio already being out of the MACC, which isn't the case at all. Yes, Ohio now needs some help, but Ohio is not out of the MACC race whatsoever. Ohio is still alive and well. The reality is, it's going to boil down to these 3 games:

Ohio vs WMU
Miami vs BG
Miami at Ball State

Ohio must beat WMU, BG must beat Miami and Ball State must beat Miami. Ohio is going to destroy BG and Akron and Miami will beat Akron in the other three games, so it really boils down to the other three matchups. I think Ohio will beat WMU in a good one tonight, leaving BG and Ball State to help seal the deal.
SBH
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Posted: 11/12/2019 4:50 PM
OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more
Ohio is going to destroy BG and Akron

Haven't you learned not to predict how a Frank Solich team Ohio will perform against any opponent, no matter how weak? Akron taught us that lesson a couple of years ago.
mf279801
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Posted: 11/12/2019 5:37 PM
Yeah...lets look at some math

As of a few minutes ago, the lines are suggesting that Ohio has a 53% chance of beating WMU and BG has a ~13% chance of beating Miami. Taking those together, you get implied odds of 7.4% (moneyline on that parley = +1255)

I can't find lines posted for next week or the week after that yet, but the implied odds for this week closely align with the FPI projected results, so I used their Projected probabilities for the remaining matchups.

These are their projected results for the remaining games:
Ohio vs WMU - Ohio wins 37.2%
Ohio vs BGSU - Ohio wins 82.4%
Ohio vs Akron - Ohio wins 91.4%

Miami vs BGSU - Miami loses 14.5%
Miami vs Akron - Miami loses 6.6%
Miami vs BSU - Miami loses 66%

If we run those numbers out, with Ohio winning out and Miami losing 2 of those 3, we are left with:

(100) * 0.372 * 0.824 * 0.914 * 0.145 * 0.066 * 0.66 =

Ohio has approximately a 2.68% chance of representing the MAC East in Detroit (that works out to a moneyline of ~+3500 or 35/1. In otherwords, a $10 bet would pay out $360).

Good luck!
Mark Lembright '85
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Mark Lembright '85
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Posted: 11/12/2019 10:08 PM
Ummmm...............
Urban Bobcat
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Posted: 11/12/2019 10:12 PM
Still in the thick of things!!!
Win our next two and Miami loses out.
URBAN BOBCAT
OhioBobcat
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Posted: 11/12/2019 10:15 PM
NOW all the vultures can officially state that Ohio’s MACC hopes are dead. Enjoy
Lande71
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Posted: 11/12/2019 10:17 PM
Waiting for ohiobobcat to come up with a way to win this championship. I hate all the predicting. It is worthless drivel.
shabamon
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Posted: 11/12/2019 10:23 PM
Win out and Miami lose out. The only way possible.
MonroeClassmate
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Posted: 11/12/2019 10:41 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
Win out and Miami lose out. The only way possible.
What about Buffalo?
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/13/2019 10:11 AM
But they're on life support. Expect the death knell by 11:00 tonight. Best we can hope for is to beat BG and Akron and wait for an outside shot at an early-season bowl game.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Last Edited: 11/13/2019 10:14:20 AM by Pataskala
Bobcat Grad 86
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Bobcat Grad 86
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Posted: 11/13/2019 10:49 AM
OUr hope for a MAC Championship probably ended when I enrolled at OU.
AlumDadDad
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Posted: 11/13/2019 9:28 PM
Turn out the lights, the party's over. Fiami up 37-3 in first half. Holy cow, we were overrated this year.
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