It's cute that you expected us to beat a Big Ten team on the road, but this is not the 5th season of your dynasty on NCAA Football 27. This is reality. Being within one score through 3 quarters is something to be happy about, considering the competition. I came away much mor optimistic than I expected to after that game.
Vegas certainly has higher expectations for us after the game - my two bets for us to hit over 6.5 wins and for us to win the MAC are both giving me options to cash out at a profit now.
I am not surprised that our win total went up but I would expect that mean only went up by a tenth or two. If I recall the 6.5 juice was lopsided for over vs. under, already indicating the 7 wins was expected by oddsmakers and the bettors to be more likely than 6. That still has to be the case, I think. I think our win total might have gone up because while WMU and UMass expectations went up, we don't play them, and, I think some tougher games that ARE on our schedule like JSU, Miami, and CMU look a little better for us than they did. I suppose that has to mean that are chances of being in Detroit look better because of that. If it is WMU on the other side that looks like a harder win than it did last week.
Looking at the MAC contenders starting with us:
Ohio - I think a very slight upgrade in expectation. We didn't cover which would be one of the first things you look at. However, we stayed in the game longer than would have been expected and the game stats would probably lead you to guess that the game result was right about the 23.5 point spread. Plus more of the concerns going into the year were on offense and they showed to be competent. The defense had enough returners that I might be wise in making future predictions against G6 opponents to put as much weight on how some of the players performed against other G6 opponents than how they looked weaker than expected in the end against Nebraska. I was concerned about the possibility of an offense that was unproven at almost every position just being inept. I don't feel nearly as worried there as I was going into the season. Probably close to a wash in the point value oddsmakers have beside our name.
WMU - The slight favorite going in. Their expectations went up the most in the conference other than UMass. You can also say that they should have won if not for some missed fouls on Michigan in the 4th. In fact, you can even argue that they actually DID win....
Miami - Usually the 2nd favorite going in. Probably an obvious and clear downgrade but not a monsterous one. They played a team right about the expected level of Nebraska and fell out of it much quicker than Ohio did and lost by a bigger margin.
Toledo - I think, similar to Ohio, a very, very slight upgrade. Vegas predicted 29-19 which was almost the exact result. I think they came a little closer to actually winning than expected. At the same time, Michigan State had more missed chances than Toledo so this may be a wash.
CMU - Was the 5th actual contender by the futures. If I recall there was a decent gap between 5 and 6. Their loss was probably the most disappointing among the contenders. I won't read a huge amount into the Miami loss as long as they showed at least some level of competence against a P4. This was a lopsided result against a higher end G6. Unlike the others where I had them on one of the TVs most of the game, I didn't see any of this game. I doesn't look like CMU can find much to hang their hat on here.
Next Level:
EMU - EMU losing as a favorite cancels out a better than expected result against Sac. St. I don't think EMU has changed much. Their won total might not have changed much but since they won the actual conference game their MAC chances are probably very slightly better than the were.
Buffalo - At least Buffalo won but it can't have helped expectations. Buffalo has probably very slightly dropped. I think not a lot to see here between these two.
BGSU - A loss to what will very probably be an FCS playoff team. This is a drop but probably not that big of one as some might guess at first glance.
Others:
UMass - opened at 300:1. They quickly went to about 250:1. Given their very unexpected performance and the performances of the 5-8 teams above they should already be in the same betting range as them.
Akron - Maybe a slight upgrade. They weren't considered a contender and the result doesn't say contender but given what else happened they are probably at least close to the range of those 5-8 teams as well.
Also rans:
I don't see any reason to have much faith in Kent State, Sac. St., and Ball State right now. Sac St.'s FCS win was very easy but they are they are the MAC team with a conference loss.
Last Edited: 9/8/2026 3:49:44 PM by Victory