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Topic: Week 12 MAC schedule
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Pataskala
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Posted: 11/7/2024 12:21 PM
Tuesday November 12
WMU (5-4, 4-1) at BG (5-4,4-1) 7 pm, ESPN2
CMU (3-6, 1-4) at Toledo (6-3, 3-2) 7 pm, ESPNU
BSU (3-6, 2-3) at Buffalo (5-4, 3-2) 7 pm, CBSSN

Wednesday November 13
EMU (5-4, 2-3) at OHIO (6-3, 4-1) 7 pm, ESPN2
Kent (0-9, 0-5) at MOFO (5-4, 4-1 7 pm, ESPNU
Akron (2-7, 1-4) at NIU (5-4,2-3) 7 pm, CBSSN
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

L.C.
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Posted: 11/8/2024 6:49 AM
Tuesday November 12
WMU at BG - if BG later defeats Miami, Ohio could play the winner of this game
CMU at Toledo - go CMU, would eliminate Toledo from being in a 6-2 tiebreaker
BSU at Buffalo - idc

Wednesday November 13
EMU at OHIO - A must win for Ohio
Kent at MOFO - Miracles can happen, Go Kent
Akron at NIU - An Akron win might help Ohio in a tiebreaker at 6-2
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/8/2024 6:08 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
EMU at OHIO - A must win for Ohio
Really, they're all must-wins for Ohio. The loss to MOFO plus not playing BG and WMU means we need help to get to the MACCG. I'm not sure that help is out there. WMU-BG is an elimination game. Then WMU has CMU and EMU, while BG has BSU and MOFO (which could be an elimination game or a MACCG preview). The best scenario would be for BG to beat WMU and lose to MOFO. That would give Ohio control of its destiny, assuming we take care of business vs EMU and Toledo.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Victory
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Posted: 11/8/2024 7:52 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
EMU at OHIO - A must win for Ohio
Really, they're all must-wins for Ohio. The loss to MOFO plus not playing BG and WMU means we need help to get to the MACCG. I'm not sure that help is out there. WMU-BG is an elimination game. Then WMU has CMU and EMU, while BG has BSU and MOFO (which could be an elimination game or a MACCG preview). The best scenario would be for BG to beat WMU and lose to MOFO. That would give Ohio control of its destiny, assuming we take care of business vs EMU and Toledo.
It is a must win. If we lose then the odds of us getting to the MACCG are grim. But as LC pointed out, we already got all the help that we needed when NIU beat WMU. Since BG plays Miami and WMU there can't be a four way tie. I pointed out that if WMU and Ohio win out and since they don't play each teams loss is to an uncommon opponent the tiebreaker would go all the step 5 which is the number of MAC conference wins of your MAC opponents and that we have a one game lead right now. LC showed that the only way this can matter is in a three way tie and the only three way tie would be Ohio, WMU and Miami. For that to happen Miami, who WMU doesn't play has to have three wins and BG, who we don't play, has to lose to WMU and Miami. We basically make 5 more games in the step 5 tiebreaker. Oddly this means in means in the only situation that matters they can't catch us from behind and that three way tie gives Miami vs. Ohio. We DO control our own destiny already.
Last Edited: 11/8/2024 9:24:56 PM by Victory
L.C.
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Posted: 11/8/2024 9:23 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
EMU at OHIO - A must win for Ohio

Really, they're all must-wins for Ohio. The loss to MOFO plus not playing BG and WMU means we need help to get to the MACCG. I'm not sure that help is out there. WMU-BG is an elimination game. Then WMU has CMU and EMU, while BG has BSU and MOFO (which could be an elimination game or a MACCG preview). The best scenario would be for BG to beat WMU and lose to MOFO. That would give Ohio control of its destiny, assuming we take care of business vs EMU and Toledo.

Ohio already controls it's destiny. See the analysis in the Championship Scenarios thread. This week, Ohio has only one must-win game, and that's EMU.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/11/2024 12:48 PM
Thanks.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 11/11/2024 2:57 PM
Side note... how / why did Florida State manage to schedule a non-con FCS opponent in week 12?

1-9 Florida State vs 1-9 Charleston Southern (FCS)

HUH?
Last Edited: 11/11/2024 2:57:39 PM by M.D.W.S.T
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 11/11/2024 3:55 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Side note... how / why did Florida State manage to schedule a non-con FCS opponent in week 12?

1-9 Florida State vs 1-9 Charleston Southern (FCS)

HUH?
that's them trying to prove they belong in the SEC
L.C.
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Posted: 11/11/2024 8:56 PM
WMU at BG: One team will have two losses after this. I have no preference
CMU at Toledo: I don't think CMU has much chance, but go CMU.
BSU at Buffalo: I have no preference on this at all
Kent at MOFO: Miracles happen...but not often, and probably won't happen here
Akron at NIU: An Akron win would be very helpful, because Akron is on Ohio's schedule, while NIU is not, so an Akron win help Ohio in tiebreakers
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/12/2024 1:10 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Side note... how / why did Florida State manage to schedule a non-con FCS opponent in week 12?

1-9 Florida State vs 1-9 Charleston Southern (FCS)

HUH?
Well, at least one of them will have two wins this season.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/12/2024 2:09 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
[QUOTE=M.D.W.S.T] Side note... how / why did Florida State manage to schedule a non-con FCS opponent in week 12?

1-9 Florida State vs 1-9 Charleston Southern (FCS)

HUH?
Well, at least one of them will have two wins this season.
I'll get a real chuckle out of it, if that team is Charleston Southern.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/12/2024 10:53 PM
Tuesday's results:

BG 31--WMU 13
Toledo 37--CMU 10
Buffalo 51--BSU 48 (OT)


Standings: BG 5-1; OHIO and MOFO 4-1; WMU, Toledo and Buffalo 4-2.

BG and Buffalo are bowl eligible.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

100%Cat
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Posted: 11/13/2024 7:33 AM
Buffalo was down 14 with under 7 mins to go last night. Scored a TD, missed the PAT, then got a late TD/2pt to force OT and beats Balls with an OT TD. Heck of an ending.
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/13/2024 3:56 PM
100%Cat wrote:expand_more
Buffalo was down 14 with under 7 mins to go last night. Scored a TD, missed the PAT, then got a late TD/2pt to force OT and beats Balls with an OT TD. Heck of an ending.
I haven't any data to back this up, but my guess is that when the team with the first possession in OT settles for a FG, they lose probably 75% of the time.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

L.C.
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Posted: 11/13/2024 5:24 PM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Buffalo was down 14 with under 7 mins to go last night. Scored a TD, missed the PAT, then got a late TD/2pt to force OT and beats Balls with an OT TD. Heck of an ending.

I haven't any data to back this up, but my guess is that when the team with the first possession in OT settles for a FG, they lose probably 75% of the time.

This doesn't specifically answer than question, but it does give a lot of interesting data on overtime games:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343888793_Colleg...

The home team wins overtimes 50.6% of the time, and the team on defense firstwins 51% of the time, so both are not very predictive. Interestingly, however, if the game goes to 3 overtimes, the team that on defense first in the third period (which would be the same team that went first in the first overtime) now has a 2/3 chance of winning.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Pataskala
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Posted: 11/13/2024 11:21 PM
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 35--EMU 10
MOFO 34--Kent 7
NIU 29--Akron 16

Standings: OHIO, BG, MOFO 5-1; Buffalo, Toledo 4-2.

MOFO and NIU become bowl eligible.

Kent: 96 yds rushing; 82 yds passing. Kent run, Kent pass, Kent State.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

ExCat21
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Posted: 11/14/2024 12:10 AM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 35--EMU 10
MOFO 34--Kent 7
NIU 29--Akron 16

Standings: OHIO, BG, MOFO 5-1; Buffalo, Toledo 4-2.

MOFO and NIU become bowl eligible.

Kent: 96 yds rushing; 82 yds passing. Kent run, Kent pass, Kent State.


Crazy scenarios building up.

🏈Ohio wins last two, we are in.
🏈Miami vs. BG elimination game
🏈Toledo needs a win out, a BG win against Miami (beat Miami straight up) and a Buffalo loss.
🏈Buffalo needs to win out plus an Ohio loss (preferably against Toledo) and a BG win over Miami (holds tie with win over Toledo and Miami losing to Toledo.)

Buckle up!
Last Edited: 11/14/2024 12:13:35 AM by ExCat21
L.C.
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Posted: 11/14/2024 8:57 PM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
Crazy scenarios building up.

Ohio wins last two, we are in.
Miami vs. BG elimination game
Toledo needs a win out, a BG win against Miami (beat Miami straight up) and a Buffalo loss.
Buffalo needs to win out plus an Ohio loss (preferably against Toledo) and a BG win over Miami (holds tie with win over Toledo and Miami losing to Toledo.)

Buckle up!

I'll take your word for it on the 6-2 tiebreakers. There are too many to even think about. Suppose Ohio beats Toledo, but loses to Ball State, while Miami loses to NIU, but beats BG, and BG beats Ball State, and Buffalo wins out, as does WMU. That leaves Ohio, Miami, BG, Buffalo, and WMU all at 6-2. There are other, equally messy combinations...
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Victory
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Posted: 11/14/2024 9:01 PM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
Wednesday's results:

OHIO 35--EMU 10
MOFO 34--Kent 7
NIU 29--Akron 16

Standings: OHIO, BG, MOFO 5-1; Buffalo, Toledo 4-2.

MOFO and NIU become bowl eligible.

Kent: 96 yds rushing; 82 yds passing. Kent run, Kent pass, Kent State.


Crazy scenarios building up.

🏈Ohio wins last two, we are in.
🏈Miami vs. BG elimination game
🏈Toledo needs a win out, a BG win against Miami (beat Miami straight up) and a Buffalo loss.
🏈Buffalo needs to win out plus an Ohio loss (preferably against Toledo) and a BG win over Miami (holds tie with win over Toledo and Miami losing to Toledo.)

Buckle up!
It feels like BG vs Toledo or Miami vs Ohio in a rivalry championship is possibly more likely than not.
ExCat21
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Posted: 11/14/2024 9:23 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Crazy scenarios building up.

Ohio wins last two, we are in.
Miami vs. BG elimination game
Toledo needs a win out, a BG win against Miami (beat Miami straight up) and a Buffalo loss.
Buffalo needs to win out plus an Ohio loss (preferably against Toledo) and a BG win over Miami (holds tie with win over Toledo and Miami losing to Toledo.)

Buckle up!

I'll take your word for it on the 6-2 tiebreakers. There are too many to even think about. Suppose Ohio beats Toledo, but loses to Ball State, while Miami loses to NIU, but beats BG, and BG beats Ball State, and Buffalo wins out, as does WMU. That leaves Ohio, Miami, BG, Buffalo, and WMU all at 6-2. There are other, equally messy combinations...
If that were the case, BG and Buffalo would play. Buffalo would get credit for wins over Toledo and NIU (both beat Miami and Miami beat us) and they have toughest in-conference schedule with opponents.
Last Edited: 11/14/2024 9:24:58 PM by ExCat21
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/14/2024 9:24 PM
BGSU vs OHIO! That’s my projection.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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