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Topic: G-5 versus P-4 results
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colobobcat66
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Posted: 12/1/2024 10:09 AM
ESPN has an article stating that the G-5 was 9-88 against the P-4 this year. That’s down from previous years (average 20% 2013-2023). It’s been 15% the last 3 years as NIL and transfer portal kicked in. They’re claiming that shows the widening divide between the haves and the have nots( my terms). I have to agree with them, it’s not pretty and will probably get worse. It probably does not help that the P-4 picked off some of the best G-5 schools in some of the last realignment chaos -BYU, CIN. UCF and HOUSTON. Pretty much just leaves Boise and Memphis behind.
Last Edited: 12/1/2024 10:20:31 AM by colobobcat66
L.C.
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Posted: 12/1/2024 11:13 AM
colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
ESPN has an article stating that the G-5 was 9-88 against the P-4 this year. That’s down from previous years (average 20% 2013-2023). It’s been 15% the last 3 years as NIL and transfer portal kicked in. They’re claiming that shows the widening divide between the haves and the have nots( my terms). I have to agree with them, it’s not pretty and will probably get worse. It probably does not help that the P-4 picked off some of the best G-5 schools in some of the last realignment chaos -BYU, CIN. UCF and HOUSTON. Pretty much just leaves Boise and Memphis behind.

SMU is another that jumped to P5. If I counted correctly, during 2021-23, these five teams, against the P5 were:
BYU: 10-11, 48%
UC: 4-9, 31%
Houston: 3-8, 27%
UCF: 3-10, 23%
SMU: 1-5, 17%

So, all of these teams were over the 15% average of the G5 for those years, and the loss of them definitely reduced the overall average win rate of G5.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Athens
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Posted: 12/1/2024 2:13 PM
colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
ESPN has an article stating that the G-5 was 9-88 against the P-4 this year. That’s down from previous years (average 20% 2013-2023). It’s been 15% the last 3 years as NIL and transfer portal kicked in. They’re claiming that shows the widening divide between the haves and the have nots( my terms). I have to agree with them, it’s not pretty and will probably get worse. It probably does not help that the P-4 picked off some of the best G-5 schools in some of the last realignment chaos -BYU, CIN. UCF and HOUSTON. Pretty much just leaves Boise and Memphis behind.
Its mostly the best resource programs were picked up by the P4, at least for this year. Next year 105 player roster limits are due to kick in which could swing things back another way. In the future the development of new Boise State level programs that are a cut above the G5 pack. But a lot of it is luck of the schedule. Boise having Oregon this year on the schedule and playing them early in the season has inflated their rankings.
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L.C.
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Posted: 12/1/2024 2:42 PM
As I understand it, next year they will have 105 players on the roster, all on scholarship. That will will mean that each P4 team will have 20 more players on scholarship than before, allowing them to reach further down into the talent pool and/or the portal pool. That will eliminate guys turning down G5 scholarships to walk on at a P4 school. Starting at G5 is better for those players anyway, because if they do well at the G5 school, they can head into the portal for another shot at P4, plus they get a scholarship in the meantime.

My guess is that, for G5 schools, the negatives of the 105 limit are much greater than the positives. The one thing that may help G5 stay competitive is that, just as they lose their best players to P4, they can cherry pick the best players from FCS and Division II, plus getting some good players who have been riding the bench at P4.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Last Edited: 12/1/2024 2:45:06 PM by L.C.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 12/1/2024 5:55 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
As I understand it, next year they will have 105 players on the roster, all on scholarship. That will will mean that each P4 team will have 20 more players on scholarship than before, allowing them to reach further down into the talent pool and/or the portal pool. That will eliminate guys turning down G5 scholarships to walk on at a P4 school. Starting at G5 is better for those players anyway, because if they do well at the G5 school, they can head into the portal for another shot at P4, plus they get a scholarship in the meantime.

My guess is that, for G5 schools, the negatives of the 105 limit are much greater than the positives. The one thing that may help G5 stay competitive is that, just as they lose their best players to P4, they can cherry pick the best players from FCS and Division II, plus getting some good players who have been riding the bench at P4.
I just think that players want to play football, not sit on the bench just to get a paycheck. There is apt to be major turnover on those 105 player rosters every year, it seems to me. That’s practically the only upside that could amount to much for the G-5 teams.
Athens
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Posted: 12/1/2024 6:44 PM
No they are maintaining 85 scholarships while limiting the walk-on roster to 105 (right now some programs have 135-140 total on the roster). SEC will be at 85/105 for next season.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-maint... /

How will Ohio recruit in the new environment? Does it make sense to focus on speed or guys that are winners? AJ Ouellette I suppose didn't walk in with P4 natural attributes but his determination made a difference. Before with 130 roster spots more chances could be taken on guys.
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2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
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2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
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BillyTheCat
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Posted: 12/1/2024 10:01 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
No they are maintaining 85 scholarships while limiting the walk-on roster to 105 (right now some programs have 135-140 total on the roster). SEC will be at 85/105 for next season.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-maint... /

How will Ohio recruit in the new environment? Does it make sense to focus on speed or guys that are winners? AJ Ouellette I suppose didn't walk in with P4 natural attributes but his determination made a difference. Before with 130 roster spots more chances could be taken on guys.
Wrong, schools are free to offer up to 105 scholarships, with a roster limit of 105. Meaninging lots of players will be looking for a home. The SEC may stay with the 85 limit, but their roster will trim to 105 players, as will OHIO’s. That means 25-30 players without a home.
Last Edited: 12/1/2024 10:04:03 PM by BillyTheCat
Athens
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Posted: 12/2/2024 1:17 AM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
No they are maintaining 85 scholarships while limiting the walk-on roster to 105 (right now some programs have 135-140 total on the roster). SEC will be at 85/105 for next season.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-maint... /

How will Ohio recruit in the new environment? Does it make sense to focus on speed or guys that are winners? AJ Ouellette I suppose didn't walk in with P4 natural attributes but his determination made a difference. Before with 130 roster spots more chances could be taken on guys.
Wrong, schools are free to offer up to 105 scholarships, with a roster limit of 105. Meaninging lots of players will be looking for a home. The SEC may stay with the 85 limit, but their roster will trim to 105 players, as will OHIO’s. That means 25-30 players without a home.
No they are keeping the same scholarships per sport as before. 85 full ride equivalents however they are allowed to split them into partial rides out to 105. There is no interest for increasing the number of scholarships partially because of Title IX. What they are trying to do is limit the roster with revenue sharing coming in so that money sent to the athletes is split less ways.

https://blog.sportsrecruits.com/2024/08/06/understanding-... /

Partial scholarships are not common in FBS but you see it in FCS regularly.
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2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 12/2/2024 6:35 AM
That is per SEC agreement, that is a them decision. Schools are free to offer and pay 105 players if the want to.


“Lastly, scholarship limits will be eliminated in all sports at the NCAA DI Level. NCAA DI programs will now regulate the number of athletes on each team by implementing roster limits, with many sports receiving an increase in the number of potential players they can have on the team”
Last Edited: 12/2/2024 6:37:47 AM by BillyTheCat
Athens
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Posted: 12/2/2024 11:52 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
That is per SEC agreement, that is a them decision. Schools are free to offer and pay 105 players if the want to.


“Lastly, scholarship limits will be eliminated in all sports at the NCAA DI Level. NCAA DI programs will now regulate the number of athletes on each team by implementing roster limits, with many sports receiving an increase in the number of potential players they can have on the team”
That 105 roster limit applies to all Division 1 even FCS where in some cases had been running as large of walk-on programs as FBS. The maximum number of scholarships in FCS continues to be 63 though but its equivalencies.

https://fearthefcs.com/2024/11/14/northeast-conference-re... /

"The Northeast Conference is planning to remove its 45 football scholarship limit, according to CollegeAD. The NEC will allow as many as 105 scholarships as outlined in the NCAA v. House settlement but one athletic director told CollegeAD that most schools are unlikely to offer more than 50. The maximum number of scholarships currently allowed in the FCS is 63 and that number has not changed for the 2025-26 academic year as of this posting. The final roster and scholarship limits are still subject to change for the 2025 season."

FCS is continued to be defined by 63 equivlancies and FBS by 85 equivlancies per the NCAA management council.

Moving forward scholarships aren't going to be as important as opting into revenue sharing and providing the max. Splitting 20 million in revenue sharing across a 105 roster is 190k a piece. Scholarship values are small in comparison.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
Athens
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Posted: 12/3/2024 12:30 AM
How are the new rules impacting the amount of Freshman recruited by year. Going back to 2018 pre-NIL to next year when revenue sharing kicks in and looking at the average size at the Top 10 HS recruiting classes (courtsey 24/7).

2018 23.3
2019 26.0
2020 24.2
2021 22.8
2022 24.8
2023 25.6
2024 25.5
2025 23.3

There isn't a notable difference in size of HS recruiting class with since the portal or so far with the reduced roster size. I'd expect rosters will move toward having 10-12 PWOs then another 8-10 openings for tryout players to earn a spot on the roster. Walk ons will have to fight for their roster spots each year and some will be cut from the roster and lose the revenue sharing money.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 12/3/2024 6:20 AM
TWT wrote:expand_more
That is per SEC agreement, that is a them decision. Schools are free to offer and pay 105 players if the want to.


“Lastly, scholarship limits will be eliminated in all sports at the NCAA DI Level. NCAA DI programs will now regulate the number of athletes on each team by implementing roster limits, with many sports receiving an increase in the number of potential players they can have on the team”
That 105 roster limit applies to all Division 1 even FCS where in some cases had been running as large of walk-on programs as FBS. The maximum number of scholarships in FCS continues to be 63 though but its equivalencies.

https://fearthefcs.com/2024/11/14/northeast-conference-re... /

"The Northeast Conference is planning to remove its 45 football scholarship limit, according to CollegeAD. The NEC will allow as many as 105 scholarships as outlined in the NCAA v. House settlement but one athletic director told CollegeAD that most schools are unlikely to offer more than 50. The maximum number of scholarships currently allowed in the FCS is 63 and that number has not changed for the 2025-26 academic year as of this posting. The final roster and scholarship limits are still subject to change for the 2025 season."

FCS is continued to be defined by 63 equivlancies and FBS by 85 equivlancies per the NCAA management council.

Moving forward scholarships aren't going to be as important as opting into revenue sharing and providing the max. Splitting 20 million in revenue sharing across a 105 roster is 190k a piece. Scholarship values are small in comparison.

Dude, I KNOW the 105 is for all schools! I also know that if a school wants to, they can NOW offer 105 scholarships!!!!!!!! The SEC for next year agreed to cap their's, however, not all leagues have made that commitment. And moving forward, you can provide the scholarship, the NIL, and revenue sharing at whatever level you want to partake up to the maximum. MY point all along was that 85 scholarships are no longer a thing unless the school wants it to be a thing.
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Posted: 12/4/2024 8:58 PM
Give it about 3-4 months. Wait until Lane Kiffin or Mario Cristobal get their way and they eliminate the ONE auto-bid for the G5 schools.

Bobcat Attack - > "Yes sir, may I have another"
BillyTheCat
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Posted: 12/6/2024 9:14 AM
Bobcat Love wrote:expand_more
Give it about 3-4 months. Wait until Lane Kiffin or Mario Cristobal get their way and they eliminate the ONE auto-bid for the G5 schools.

Bobcat Attack - > "Yes sir, may I have another"
That’s coming
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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Posted: 12/6/2024 9:32 AM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Give it about 3-4 months. Wait until Lane Kiffin or Mario Cristobal get their way and they eliminate the ONE auto-bid for the G5 schools.

Bobcat Attack - > "Yes sir, may I have another"
That’s coming
Of course it is. We're headed pretty directly to a "Premier League" set up for college football. The P5 programs in one tier, with their own playoffs. Everybody else playing pointless bowl games. Bobcat Love's the loudest about this. He's also the last person to notice. This conversation's already been going on on BA for 7 years.

Now that revenue sharing is here, the G5 is no longer going to be able to rely on welfare payments from programs with money. Bobcat Love is right about the problem, wrong about the solution. His only suggestion is just hold out our hat to the P5 with a bit more aggression, but for all of his talk about "BUSINESS" he hasn't come even remotely close to outlining a model that makes the G5 sustainable without the P5.

That requires generating enough fan interest to negotiate TV deals that start to generate outside revenue that doesn't pale in comparison to student fees. It's not impossible, but it is going to be very hard.
Last Edited: 12/6/2024 9:34:59 AM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
L.C.
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Posted: 12/6/2024 9:54 AM
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:expand_more
...a model that makes the G5 sustainable without the P5.

That requires generating enough fan interest to negotiate TV deals that start to generate outside revenue that doesn't pale in comparison to student fees. It's not impossible, but it is going to be very hard.

This, in my opinion, is the correct approach. The unfortunate truth is that the P4 doesn't really need the G5. What would happen if the G5 becomes unwilling to take $1.5 million to play them? The odds are that they can find someone else willing to lose to them for $1.5 million. That might be an FCS team, or even some semi-pro club team. Go back into history and you can find games such as the Chillicothe YMCA or the Deaf and Dumb Institute. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.

I just don't see this sort of thought as productive:
Possible thought wrote:expand_more
Oops, we were asleep at the wheel, and didn't see this future coming. We let some other schools generate a huge fan base, including many of our own alumi, and now they are are increasing their endowment so fast they are getting ahead of academically, too. They should give us lots of money so we can compete.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
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