Here's the MAC's schedule vs "P" teams this season (I've also noted a couple of interesting non-"P" OOC games):

Akron: @ Nebraska; @ Iowa St; @ Northwestern

BSU: @ Indiana [also @ Notre Dame]

BG: @ Georgia Tech; @ Oregon; home vs Maryland

Buffalo: @ Rutgers

CMU: @ Michigan St; @ Kentucky; home vs Kansas

EMU: @ Purdue

Kent: @ Illinois; @ Ole Miss; @ Penn St

Fiami: @ Minnesota

NIU: @ Florida St; @ Iowa; home vs Utah [also @ BYU]

Ohio @ Virginia

Toledo: home vs MiamiF

WMU: home vs Syracuse; @ Michigan



CMU essentially has a lock with Kansas at home, and might get a win at Kentucky. Toledo played MiamiF tough on the road last year and has a good chance for a win at home (even without Woodside). WMU and NIU should be favored in their home games. Ohio has a very good shot at a win, and I expect Fiami to give Minnesota a tough game.

How did Toledo get Miami at home? That seems like a crazy fantasty to imagine that for Ohio.

I think we have a pretty good chance to knock off Virginia, I think offensively if we can match them in points. Might come down to the turnover battle. If our defense can sneak one or two it might be enough.

It would be nice to see us load up in the non-conference schedule at this point. The strategy to play lighter non-conference schedules to rack up wins was good when the MAC had limited bowl opportunities. With 6-6 (5-7 with good APR) getting Ohio into a bowl game more chances can be taken.

The only game where the MAC will likely be favored is Kansas @CMU

I see three games which are tossups:
Buffalo @Rutgers
Ohio @Virginia
Syracuse @WMU

I see three more where the MAC has a reasonable chance for an upset:
Maryland @BG
Utah @NIU
CMU @Kentucky

Figuring 80% chance of CMU beating Kansas, 50% on the tossups, and .25% on the next three, it looks like the MAC will about 3 games versus the P5 again this year, which is about the same as the last few years.