The question I would say to you is if a split from the G5 is imminent then why hasn't it already happened and how do you explain the gradual improvement in post season access by the G5 over time in that context?
I actually don't think this is necessarily true. The access the G5s have been given has more or less been a handout to a major bowl game, but hampered their ability to compete for an actual national championship and every time a G5 gets close to that, they (committees, power conferences) change the rules or formatting.
During the BCS era, teams like Boise and TCU were regular "BCS Busters" and got as highly ranked in the BCS standings as #2 and #3 at one point. Boise was #3 in November 2010. NIU was given a BCS bowl berth on a technicality in 2012 and the system was changed to a 4-team playoff just two years later.
I don't care what anyone says, the 4-team playoff and subsequent New Year's Six bowls were designed to keep the G5 out of the national championship. Throw them a bone and give them an autobid to a Fiesta or Cotton Bowl, but it would almost take an act of God for one to be ranked in the Top Four. Oh and look what happened? American Conference Cincinnati gets good enough, has the right schedule and gets into the 4-team playoff.
What do they do? Immediately change it to a 12-team playoff and most people thought any G5 would be ranked #12 and get immediately washed in the first round, or at most round two.
Boise gets a 4-seed, whether or not they actually deserved it, they played by the rules and got a bye and what happens? The rules are changed and you'll probably never see a G5 get an auto bye again. Again, without a minor miracle, a G5 will never play for a national championship in this era. The system just won't allow it to happen.
No doubt not giving the Top 4 conference champs was a roll back but it was the first rollback for the G5. For the MAC in particular the post season represents steady advancement.
1998-2005
Top 6 to appear in a BCS game, MAC with 1-2 bowl games.
MAC with no payment from BCS.
2006-2013
Highest non-AQ champ Top 12 (Top 16 if above a champ), MAC with 3-4 bowl games.
MAC with 20% BCS payment of MWC/CUSA.
2014-2024
Highest G5 champ in a major bowl, MAC with 5-7 bowl games annually
MAC with 75% payment of MWC/AAC on average
2025-2026
Highest G5 champ w/ playoff spot.
MAC with equal payment received by the AAC.
There is talk of expanding to 24 with 4 autobids for the P4 and 2 autobids for the G5. That would lower the thereshold of making the playoff in addition to lowering the threshold of hosting a playoff game in Athens. This could be another 75% increase in money for the MAC.
More realignment would help the MAC. Memphis, UNLV, USF, SDSU into a P4 would serve to provide less competition for the 2 playoff spots leaving them for lower resourced programs.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740