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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Preseason poll vs reality
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Pataskala
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Pataskala
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Posted: 3/7/2020 6:30 PM
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Alan Swank
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Alan Swank
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Posted: 3/8/2020 9:34 AM
Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.
Other than Akron, I would say they were pretty accurate relatively speaking.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 3/8/2020 12:06 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.
Other than Akron, I would say they were pretty accurate relatively speaking.
It seems nearly every year there's a school like Akron that greatly defies expectations. This is even more true, I think, in MAC football predictions, but is true often in basketball as well.
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Pataskala
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Posted: 3/8/2020 6:46 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
Here's the preseason MAC coaches poll with each team's actual finish in parenthesis:

East
1. Bowling Green (2nd)
2. Buffalo (3rd)
3. Kent State (4th)
4. Miami (6th)
5. Akron (1st)
6. Ohio (5th)

West
1. Toledo (3rd)
2. Northern Illinois (Tied for 1st, lost tiebreaker)
3. Ball State (Tied for 1st, won tiebreaker)
4. Central Michigan (4th)
5. Western Michigan (tied for 5th)
6. Eastern Michigan (tied for 5th)

They were 0-6 in the East, 2-4 in the West.
Other than Akron, I would say they were pretty accurate relatively speaking.

I'd say they were pretty far off with Toledo as well. Not only did Toledo finish third instead of first, they were three games behind the co-leaders and didn't even have a .500 season in the MAC.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

GraffZ06
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Posted: 3/9/2020 8:08 AM
It's probably more accurate to look at how many points teams got across the whole league rather than the two divisions, as if they were seeding for the MAC tournament. Based on pre-season polls they were expected to finish:

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2019/10/30/mac-announces-...

1) Bowling Green (69)
2) Toledo (69)
3) Buffalo (58)
4) N Illinois (52)
5) Ball St (51)
6) Kent St (43)
7) C Michigan (41)
8) Miami (37)
9) Akron (33)
10) W Michigan (23)
11) E Michigan (16)
12) Ohio (12)

Comparing that to reality, with the amount they missed by in parenthesis:
1) Akron (+8)
2) Bowling Green (-1)
3) Ball St (+2)
4) N Illinois (0)
5) Buffalo (-2)
6) Kent St (0)
7) Toledo (-5)
8) Ohio (+4)
9) C Michigan (-2)
10) W Michigan (0)
11) E Michigan (0)
12) Miami (-4)

I don't think missing by up to +/-2 is very big at all. So really they just missed: Akron +8 and Ohio +4 on the positive side, and Toledo -5 and Miami -4 on the negative side.
CatsUp
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Posted: 3/9/2020 8:21 AM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
It's probably more accurate to look at how many points teams got across the whole league rather than the two divisions, as if they were seeding for the MAC tournament. Based on pre-season polls they were expected to finish:

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2019/10/30/mac-announces-...

1) Bowling Green (69)
2) Toledo (69)
3) Buffalo (58)
4) N Illinois (52)
5) Ball St (51)
6) Kent St (43)
7) C Michigan (41)
8) Miami (37)
9) Akron (33)
10) W Michigan (23)
11) E Michigan (16)
12) Ohio (12)

Comparing that to reality, with the amount they missed by in parenthesis:
1) Akron (+8)
2) Bowling Green (-1)
3) Ball St (+2)
4) N Illinois (0)
5) Buffalo (-2)
6) Kent St (0)
7) Toledo (-5)
8) Ohio (+4)
9) C Michigan (-2)
10) W Michigan (0)
11) E Michigan (0)
12) Miami (-4)

I don't think missing by up to +/-2 is very big at all. So really they just missed: Akron +8 and Ohio +4 on the positive side, and Toledo -5 and Miami -4 on the negative side.
Nice, concise analysis GraffZ. Well done!
OU_Country
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Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County
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OU_Country
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Posted: 3/9/2020 9:44 AM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
It's probably more accurate to look at how many points teams got across the whole league rather than the two divisions, as if they were seeding for the MAC tournament. Based on pre-season polls they were expected to finish:

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2019/10/30/mac-announces-...

1) Bowling Green (69)
2) Toledo (69)
3) Buffalo (58)
4) N Illinois (52)
5) Ball St (51)
6) Kent St (43)
7) C Michigan (41)
8) Miami (37)
9) Akron (33)
10) W Michigan (23)
11) E Michigan (16)
12) Ohio (12)

Comparing that to reality, with the amount they missed by in parenthesis:
1) Akron (+8)
2) Bowling Green (-1)
3) Ball St (+2)
4) N Illinois (0)
5) Buffalo (-2)
6) Kent St (0)
7) Toledo (-5)
8) Ohio (+4)
9) C Michigan (-2)
10) W Michigan (0)
11) E Michigan (0)
12) Miami (-4)

I don't think missing by up to +/-2 is very big at all. So really they just missed: Akron +8 and Ohio +4 on the positive side, and Toledo -5 and Miami -4 on the negative side.
I like the analysis. I remember finding how Akron and Miami were picked to be a little interesting. Miami is the cellar dweller until the prove otherwise, and you had to think Akron was going to be better than them. Win the division better is surprising though.
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