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Topic:  Back to State College in 2022?

Topic:  Back to State College in 2022?
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bshot44
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  Message Not Read  Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/23/2019 3:20:27 PM 
Penn St announcing they'll play Ohio Sept 10,2022

https://t.co/utrcrSz9Nh?amp=1

But Ohio was reportedly playing Syracuse on that date?

https://articles.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/20...
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/23/2019 3:48:01 PM 
bshot44 wrote:
Penn St announcing they'll play Ohio Sept 10,2022

https://t.co/utrcrSz9Nh?amp=1

But Ohio was reportedly playing Syracuse on that date?

https://articles.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/20...


I now think we know the date when Frank will retire before.
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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/23/2019 3:57:33 PM 
More than likely PSU will give Ohio double the money they would have received with Syracuse.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/23/2019 5:13:47 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
bshot44 wrote:
Penn St announcing they'll play Ohio Sept 10,2022

https://t.co/utrcrSz9Nh?amp=1

But Ohio was reportedly playing Syracuse on that date?

https://articles.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/20...


I now think we know the date when Frank will retire before.


Don't bet anything you can't afford to lose on it. I think Frank's model is Amos Alonzo Stagg. He may "die in the saddle" so to speak.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/23/2019 9:38:41 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
bshot44 wrote:
Penn St announcing they'll play Ohio Sept 10,2022

https://t.co/utrcrSz9Nh?amp=1

But Ohio was reportedly playing Syracuse on that date?

https://articles.syracuse.com/orangefootball/index.ssf/20...


I now think we know the date when Frank will retire before.


Don't bet anything you can't afford to lose on it. I think Frank's model is Amos Alonzo Stagg. He may "die in the saddle" so to speak.


I知 betting nothing. I have no idea when he値l retire. However, I figure the guys in blue will be reminded about the last time we played there.
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catfan28
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/23/2019 11:30:29 PM 
A small glimpse at the new administration's attitude towards athletics. Expect lots more "big money" games to close the gap in what we used to raise via ticket sales, donations, etc. Have to make up the budget somewhere - Nellis has given his marching orders.

FWIW, I've heard that some other future games and home-home series are on the chopping block too.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/23/2019 11:47:41 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:

I知 betting nothing. I have no idea when he値l retire. However, I figure the guys in blue will be reminded about the last time we played there.


Frank is relentless and fearless. Don't think he's intimidated by those "boys in blue." Now, the ones during the late Rebellion with muskets on their shoulders, that might have been a different story! ;-)


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/24/2019 12:50:00 PM 
I want one game with Ohio State. Just one more.
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rpbobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/24/2019 1:10:26 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:


I知 betting nothing. I have no idea when he値l retire. However, I figure the guys in blue will be reminded about the last time we played there.


2022 is a long time from now.

A lot can happen between now and then.

I have a friend whose kids went to PSU.

The whole family goes to a couple of PSU games every year.

According to him, a lot of people in not so Happy Valley aren't thrilled with Franklin,especially with his recruiting.

They think that he lost his shinning star with Barley.

That was apparent last season,even with a pretty good,now gone,QB.

Remains to be seen where PSU will be in a few years.




Last Edited: 1/24/2019 1:11:03 PM by rpbobcat

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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 8:53:45 AM 
Catfan28 is probably correct. I doubt the Bearcats from UC play in Athens in a few years. Both schools may be looking for bigger pay days.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 9:43:22 AM 
catfan28 wrote:
A small glimpse at the new administration's attitude towards athletics. Expect lots more "big money" games to close the gap in what we used to raise via ticket sales, donations, etc. Have to make up the budget somewhere - Nellis has given his marching orders.

FWIW, I've heard that some other future games and home-home series are on the chopping block too.

So, it's likely back to 5 game home schedules?


"When two men always agree, one of them is unnecessary." William Wrigley

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catfan28
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 10:24:22 AM 
Wouldn't be shocked to see some 5 game home schedules in the not-too-distant future. Kent State has been doing those for a while and making $2 million or more on road games.

IMO, Frank may push back enough to keep it at 6 home games for the remainder of his tenure. But I'd fully expect the next coach to be told a major goal for his program is generating revenue via guarantee games.

And yes, I wouldn't be shocked if the Bearcats never make the trip to Athens.
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finnOhio
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 11:15:52 AM 
catfan28 wrote:
Wouldn't be shocked to see some 5 game home schedules in the not-too-distant future. Kent State has been doing those for a while and making $2 million or more on road games.

IMO, Frank may push back enough to keep it at 6 home games for the remainder of his tenure. But I'd fully expect the next coach to be told a major goal for his program is generating revenue via guarantee games.

And yes, I wouldn't be shocked if the Bearcats never make the trip to Athens.


That's reminiscent of the Va Tech game. I'm still pissed they didn't come to Peden. That would've been HUGE.
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Uncle Wes
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 12:08:54 PM 
catfan28 wrote:
A small glimpse at the new administration's attitude towards athletics. Expect lots more "big money" games to close the gap in what we used to raise via ticket sales, donations, etc. Have to make up the budget somewhere - Nellis has given his marching orders.

FWIW, I've heard that some other future games and home-home series are on the chopping block too.


The cats destroyed some pretty good teams last season in WMU, Buffalo and San Diego St so now its time for more challenge. Frank put the 6 game home schedule in to help the program build some wins which was understandable. Wins to help them get to a bowl and when Frank started the MAC had 3 of them. Seven wins today and Ohio is a lock for a bowl.


Bobcat Sustainability
2018 Quentin Poling, 7th Round (Miami Dolphins)
2017 Tarell Basham, 3rd Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2017 Blair Brown, 5th Round (Jacksonville Jaguars)
2014 Travis Carrie, 7th Round (Oakland Raiders)
2013 Eric Herman, 7th Round (New York Giants)
2012 LaVon Brazil, 6th Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2010 Taylor Price, 3rd Round (NE Patriots)
2009 Mike Mitchell, 2nd Round (Oakland Raiders)
2008 Landon Cohen, 7th Round (Detroit Lions)

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Uncle Wes
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 12:34:34 PM 
L.C. wrote:
catfan28 wrote:
A small glimpse at the new administration's attitude towards athletics. Expect lots more "big money" games to close the gap in what we used to raise via ticket sales, donations, etc. Have to make up the budget somewhere - Nellis has given his marching orders.

FWIW, I've heard that some other future games and home-home series are on the chopping block too.

So, it's likely back to 5 game home schedules?


So far they've traded out a half a million dollar payday at Syracuse for a 2 million dollar payday at Penn State. Existing contracts are tough to get out of but I guess this one had room to make a trade. What I notice is Ohio only has FCS opponents scheduled out to 2022. FCS games should be on the chopping block as Ohio has to pay 350k-450k to get them into Athens. Ohio first takes a reduced payday from a mid tier P5 team and then turns around and pays almost the same amount to the FCS team.


Bobcat Sustainability
2018 Quentin Poling, 7th Round (Miami Dolphins)
2017 Tarell Basham, 3rd Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2017 Blair Brown, 5th Round (Jacksonville Jaguars)
2014 Travis Carrie, 7th Round (Oakland Raiders)
2013 Eric Herman, 7th Round (New York Giants)
2012 LaVon Brazil, 6th Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2010 Taylor Price, 3rd Round (NE Patriots)
2009 Mike Mitchell, 2nd Round (Oakland Raiders)
2008 Landon Cohen, 7th Round (Detroit Lions)

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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 1:00:09 PM 
I am not certain five home games is what is best for Ohio. Scheduling six home games still gives the Bobcats the best chance to be successful. A few seasons ago Western Ky. got $1.3 million for a trip to Bama and UMASS got about the same for playing the Gators. Troy brought in about $1 million to play LSU in 2017. Auburn is paying Southern Miss $1.85 million to play them in 2020 and in 2014 Southern Miss made $1.4 million for a game in Tuscaloosa. Does this university want to play away at Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin? Kent faces this schedule in 2019. The ASU game is not all that intimidating, but the other two games, Kent will be a heavy underdog. Injuries mount over the first month and then when the MAC season arrives, Kent will not be healthy to compete against league schools. If Ohio can get one huge payday from an SEC school or the Irish then two homes games are always a possibility. Play the usual home game with a FCS school and then face the likes of Marshall, Texas State, Louisiana, Fla. Atlantic, South Alabama, Western Ky., Navy, Middle Tenn home and away. They then can schedule teams like Maryland, Pitt, Wake, UVA, Indiana, Rutgers away on some seasons, knowing that it would be a one year deal. This won't satisfy some fans, but if some of the schools above are bringing in way over $1 million, then Ohio should also try to get some of that money.
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Uncle Wes
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 1:04:37 PM 
ExCat21 wrote:
I want one game with Ohio State. Just one more.


Loading up has its advantages. The money and recruits tend to like it. With Kent and Akron on the schedule every year its like having 2 FCS games built into the schedule anyways. Boise State has 6 home games every year with no FCS after 2019. They have remote location but are getting the games because they consistently win 9 or 10 games a year. Ohio could go to 5 with a good FBS opponent in Peden every September. I think one FCS at home in September and 3 money games a total sellout is not the way to go because good home opponents also bring in revenue. Those future games against Marshall, Cincinnati and Iowa State are guaranteed sell outs in Peden and at high ticket prices. Fans are tired of roasting at 2pm on labor day weekend to watch a guaranteed FCS win.


Bobcat Sustainability
2018 Quentin Poling, 7th Round (Miami Dolphins)
2017 Tarell Basham, 3rd Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2017 Blair Brown, 5th Round (Jacksonville Jaguars)
2014 Travis Carrie, 7th Round (Oakland Raiders)
2013 Eric Herman, 7th Round (New York Giants)
2012 LaVon Brazil, 6th Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2010 Taylor Price, 3rd Round (NE Patriots)
2009 Mike Mitchell, 2nd Round (Oakland Raiders)
2008 Landon Cohen, 7th Round (Detroit Lions)

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 3:13:38 PM 
Doing some rough math, let's figure:
A. A "money game" on the road produces $1m. Chance of winning = 10%
B. A home and home gives produces no payment, but Ohio gets to keep the home gate receipts when they play at home, or about $200k, which would divided over 2 games, so $100k/game. Chance of winning = 50%.
C. FCS game is always at home. They get the $200k gate receipts, but have to pay the other team $400k, so a $200k loss.

Using those numbers, here are some options:
1. Current system: Two home-home, one money game, one fcs game.
Home games=1/2*2+0+1=2, plus 4 conference games, so 6 home games/year
Money: $100k*2+$1m-$200k=$1m/year
Wins: .5*2+.1+.9=2 OOC wins/year

2. Drop the FCS game, replace it with another home and home.
Home games=1/2*3+0=1.5, or 5.5 home games a year (alternating 5 and 6 game schedules.
Money: $100k*3+$1m=$1.3m per year.
Wins: .5*3+.1= 1.6 OOC Wins/year

3. Keep the FCS game, drop one home and home and have 2 money games.
Home games=.5*1+0*2+1=1.5, or 5.5 home games (alternate 5 and 6)
Money: $100k+2*$1m$-200k=$1.9m per year
Wins: .5+2*.1+.9=1.6 OOC wins/year

4. 2 home and home, and 2 money games
Home games=.5*2+0*2=1 or 5 home games per year
Money: $100k+2*$1m$=$2.2m per year
Wins: .5*2+2*.1=1.2 OOC wins/year

5. FCS game and 3 money games, no home and home series
Home games=1+3*0=1, so 5 home games/year
Money: 3*$1m-$200k=$2.8m per year
Wins: .1*3+1=1.3 OOC wins/year

If you don't like my assumptions, feel free to substitute your own, but where I end up is this:

I. If you want 6 homes games, you have only choice 1, with the FCS game, and a couple other (usually G5) foes.
II. For 5.5 games, you can choose between 2 and 3. Both produce about the same number of wins and home games, but option 3 produces significantly more money, so that's the one that is the logical choice.
III. If you are forced down to 5 homes games a year, Options 4 and 5 produce similar win totals, but option 5 produces more money, so it's the logical choice.

so... it would seem to me that where you end up is with an FCS game, and however many money games you need in order to produce the revenue you need. Any other games would be home and home with other G5 teams. If the home gate receipts were much higher (say 35,000 people at $30 each, or $1m), then the need for money games goes away, and the home and home series become much more attractive, but that isn't going to happen.


"When two men always agree, one of them is unnecessary." William Wrigley

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 4:18:54 PM 
Do injuries really mount more in lopsided games? I'd like to see the numbers on that. I'm betting no.

Last Edited: 1/26/2019 4:19:44 PM by Deciduous Forest Cat

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Jeff McKinney
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 5:22:03 PM 
Word is Cincinnati has already bought out of their game in Athens. That's why I wanted to beat them so bad in Cincinnati this year.
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Uncle Wes
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 5:59:24 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Doing some rough math, let's figure:
A. A "money game" on the road produces $1m. Chance of winning = 10%
B. A home and home gives produces no payment, but Ohio gets to keep the home gate receipts when they play at home, or about $200k, which would divided over 2 games, so $100k/game. Chance of winning = 50%.
C. FCS game is always at home. They get the $200k gate receipts, but have to pay the other team $400k, so a $200k loss.

Using those numbers, here are some options:
1. Current system: Two home-home, one money game, one fcs game.
Home games=1/2*2+0+1=2, plus 4 conference games, so 6 home games/year
Money: $100k*2+$1m-$200k=$1m/year
Wins: .5*2+.1+.9=2 OOC wins/year

2. Drop the FCS game, replace it with another home and home.
Home games=1/2*3+0=1.5, or 5.5 home games a year (alternating 5 and 6 game schedules.
Money: $100k*3+$1m=$1.3m per year.
Wins: .5*3+.1= 1.6 OOC Wins/year

3. Keep the FCS game, drop one home and home and have 2 money games.
Home games=.5*1+0*2+1=1.5, or 5.5 home games (alternate 5 and 6)
Money: $100k+2*$1m$-200k=$1.9m per year
Wins: .5+2*.1+.9=1.6 OOC wins/year

4. 2 home and home, and 2 money games
Home games=.5*2+0*2=1 or 5 home games per year
Money: $100k+2*$1m$=$2.2m per year
Wins: .5*2+2*.1=1.2 OOC wins/year

5. FCS game and 3 money games, no home and home series
Home games=1+3*0=1, so 5 home games/year
Money: 3*$1m-$200k=$2.8m per year
Wins: .1*3+1=1.3 OOC wins/year

If you don't like my assumptions, feel free to substitute your own, but where I end up is this:

I. If you want 6 homes games, you have only choice 1, with the FCS game, and a couple other (usually G5) foes.
II. For 5.5 games, you can choose between 2 and 3. Both produce about the same number of wins and home games, but option 3 produces significantly more money, so that's the one that is the logical choice.
III. If you are forced down to 5 homes games a year, Options 4 and 5 produce similar win totals, but option 5 produces more money, so it's the logical choice.

so... it would seem to me that where you end up is with an FCS game, and however many money games you need in order to produce the revenue you need. Any other games would be home and home with other G5 teams. If the home gate receipts were much higher (say 35,000 people at $30 each, or $1m), then the need for money games goes away, and the home and home series become much more attractive, but that isn't going to happen.


You are assuming the gate is the same whether it be FCS or a top tier G5/P5 school. I would argue not only would revenue be higher but also season ticket revenue would be higher with a good non-conference opponent compared to FCS.


Bobcat Sustainability
2018 Quentin Poling, 7th Round (Miami Dolphins)
2017 Tarell Basham, 3rd Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2017 Blair Brown, 5th Round (Jacksonville Jaguars)
2014 Travis Carrie, 7th Round (Oakland Raiders)
2013 Eric Herman, 7th Round (New York Giants)
2012 LaVon Brazil, 6th Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2010 Taylor Price, 3rd Round (NE Patriots)
2009 Mike Mitchell, 2nd Round (Oakland Raiders)
2008 Landon Cohen, 7th Round (Detroit Lions)

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Uncle Wes
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/26/2019 6:02:49 PM 
Jeff McKinney wrote:
Word is Cincinnati has already bought out of their game in Athens. That's why I wanted to beat them so bad in Cincinnati this year.


They bought out a road game that is 2 hours away. What an egotistical decision.


Bobcat Sustainability
2018 Quentin Poling, 7th Round (Miami Dolphins)
2017 Tarell Basham, 3rd Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2017 Blair Brown, 5th Round (Jacksonville Jaguars)
2014 Travis Carrie, 7th Round (Oakland Raiders)
2013 Eric Herman, 7th Round (New York Giants)
2012 LaVon Brazil, 6th Round (Indianapolis Colts)
2010 Taylor Price, 3rd Round (NE Patriots)
2009 Mike Mitchell, 2nd Round (Oakland Raiders)
2008 Landon Cohen, 7th Round (Detroit Lions)

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/27/2019 12:45:54 AM 
L.C. wrote:
catfan28 wrote:
A small glimpse at the new administration's attitude towards athletics. Expect lots more "big money" games to close the gap in what we used to raise via ticket sales, donations, etc. Have to make up the budget somewhere - Nellis has given his marching orders.

FWIW, I've heard that some other future games and home-home series are on the chopping block too.

So, it's likely back to 5 game home schedules?



FWIW, fbsschedules.com has the Penn St game locked for 9/17/22, with four OOC games scheduled and Syracuse listed as TBA. One logical course would be to dump the 9/24 Fordham game that year for Syracuse, which is currently open on that date . It would mean only five home games with money games at Penn St and Syracuse, and the away part of a (currently) home-and-home with Iowa St. FAU is the fourth OOC game.


Actually, the phrase is "Ohio on the Charles."

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/27/2019 10:28:49 AM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
You are assuming the gate is the same whether it be FCS or a top tier G5/P5 school. I would argue not only would revenue be higher but also season ticket revenue would be higher with a good non-conference opponent compared to FCS.

I was just trying to give people a rough framework for understanding how the money works as an approximation. People are free to plug in different assumptions, and see how things come out.

Another thing thing that the above model glosses over is that that who you play from a specific group also matters. For example, a "money game" played at Rutgers will pay less than one at Alabama, but Ohio will also have a better chance of winning at Rutgers. In the end, the AD will look are real proposals from actual teams, and try to come up with the best solution. Obviously he want to maximize revenue, maximize wins, and maximize home games, but those goals are mutually exclusive, so the has to find the best combination that he can.

Uncle Wes wrote:
Jeff McKinney wrote:
Word is Cincinnati has already bought out of their game in Athens. That's why I wanted to beat them so bad in Cincinnati this year.


They bought out a road game that is 2 hours away. What an egotistical decision.

I doubt it was an egotistical decision. More likely it was a monetary one. They have to be feeling the cost pressures as well, especially with the relatively new stadium, and all their coaching changes. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that they bought out the Ohio game in order to replace it with a paid money game.


"When two men always agree, one of them is unnecessary." William Wrigley

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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Back to State College in 2022?
   Posted: 1/27/2019 11:20:41 AM 
Look for the Bearcats to play someone like Notre Dame for a big pay day rather than travel to Athens.
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