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Topic:  RE: Frank's replacement

Topic:  RE: Frank's replacement
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 9:49:30 AM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:

I'm sure that if someone wants to dig around, they can find plenty of examples of cases where an assistant coach took over for a retiring coach, and retained the rest of the staff. Probably some turned out well, and some not so well. On average, I'd expect a slight reversion towards the mean.


I know that is your opinion that Ohio would return to a sub .500 football team once Frank leaves but you neglect how much the program dynamics have changed since the 80's and 90's. Back in those days there wasn't the scholarship and academic limitations so Nebraska would stack players so other conference mates couldn't have them and so on down the line. Anything that happened in the MAC before 1997 when it moved to 12 teams is ancient history of events that occurred in a different era. Another huge factor is the 12 game schedule with 6 home games. Ohio can bake a few wins into the non-conference total to help pad on a down year like they did in 2014. Any winning season is now a bowl game which bakes in publicity. Grobe's tenure at Ohio twenty years later is now forgotten without a few bowl games as milestone. It wasn't his fault it was the rules of the day but it diminutizes the job he did at Ohio. Then of course the facilities, weight programs and technology have changed since the dark days of Ohio football. Its been 10 years since Ohio has won less than 6 games. Its been 15 years since Ohio has been really bad winning less than 4 games. This is a different era.

I think your most significant point is the importance of Grobes job at Ohio. He proved that you can win here, his tenure was a turning point in many ways.

I do think that Ohio is not alone in improving facilities. Our biggest negative is Peden which is falling apart and has to be the worst FCS stadium, although there may be a hellhole some where that I’m not familiar with.

Last Edited: 6/30/2018 9:50:16 AM by colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 10:33:19 AM 
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:

I'm sure that if someone wants to dig around, they can find plenty of examples of cases where an assistant coach took over for a retiring coach, and retained the rest of the staff. Probably some turned out well, and some not so well. On average, I'd expect a slight reversion towards the mean.


I know that is your opinion that Ohio would return to a sub .500 football team once Frank leaves but you neglect how much the program dynamics have changed since the 80's and 90's. ...

My opinion is that history gives us a base on what to expect. That doesn't mean we can't try to improve on that, nor that that you can't hope for better. I don't expect an instant drop back to the kinds of records that the Bryant years produced. I simply expect some reversion towards the mean. Thus, after Peden came Widdoes, who was good, but not quite as good. After Hess came Burke, who again, was not quite as good. Then, in the turnover that follows, sometimes you get another great coach, and sometimes you get something worse.


What you are saying is to completely ignore the fact that those records were produced in different eras under different rules and different competitive dynamics. Its like we should expect the UK to make another run at regaining the 13 colonies sometime within the next century because they did so 200 years ago. The current G5 competitive dynamic was put into place starting in 2014 where its the AAC, MAC, MWC, CUSA, SBC chasing a CFP bowl. In this new era Ohio has averaged 7.75 wins. Frank if he goes on to win 11 games each of the next season and retires that sets the mean at about 9 wins. Then we could expect the next coach to win 9 games in Athens as a revision to the mean. The bottom in the G5 era is 6-6 (2014). In the previous era of the Top 12/16 BCS bowl access rule going back to 2006 the bottom was 4-8 (2008). That era was also comparable enough since the 12 game schedule was in place and Ohio began to play an annual FCS program. The mean going back to 2006 for Ohio is 7.83 wins. Knorr ball was played in a different era of a 2 bowl MAC on 11 game schedules. Go back to the early Grobe years and the MAC only had 10 teams. Go back to the early 90's and the MAC played at a different scholarship limit then other conferences.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 11:06:53 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:

I'm sure that if someone wants to dig around, they can find plenty of examples of cases where an assistant coach took over for a retiring coach, and retained the rest of the staff. Probably some turned out well, and some not so well. On average, I'd expect a slight reversion towards the mean.


I know that is your opinion that Ohio would return to a sub .500 football team once Frank leaves but you neglect how much the program dynamics have changed since the 80's and 90's. Back in those days there wasn't the scholarship and academic limitations so Nebraska would stack players so other conference mates couldn't have them and so on down the line. Anything that happened in the MAC before 1997 when it moved to 12 teams is ancient history of events that occurred in a different era. Another huge factor is the 12 game schedule with 6 home games. Ohio can bake a few wins into the non-conference total to help pad on a down year like they did in 2014. Any winning season is now a bowl game which bakes in publicity. Grobe's tenure at Ohio twenty years later is now forgotten without a few bowl games as milestone. It wasn't his fault it was the rules of the day but it diminutizes the job he did at Ohio. Then of course the facilities, weight programs and technology have changed since the dark days of Ohio football. Its been 10 years since Ohio has won less than 6 games. Its been 15 years since Ohio has been really bad winning less than 4 games. This is a different era.

I think your most significant point is the importance of Grobes job at Ohio. He proved that you can win here, his tenure was a turning point in many ways.

I do think that Ohio is not alone in improving facilities. Our biggest negative is Peden which is falling apart and has to be the worst FCS stadium, although there may be a hellhole some where that I’m not familiar with.


In 1989 the only football facility Ohio had was a basic locker room and the MAC played at a lower scholarship limit. Grobe was the first coach at Ohio to play his entire tenure under the universal rule of 85 scholarships. The period between 1989 and 2005 was transitional for Ohio between competing in what amounted to FCS ball to the G5 ball we play today. As to Peden what would make sense is to draft up a plan for a 50,000 seat stadium and try to pitch it to a P5 conference that if invited we will build out.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 11:46:10 AM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
Hess was the one who should have put in the foundation for a next level 35,000 seat stadium. Peden Stadium was already 30 years old when he started coaching.


Well, I don’t know about the size, but Hess certainly had plans to build a new stadium and to further enhance the program. I once talked to him about his vision. He thought we could compete at a higher level in the future. His untimely death from testicular cancer really, really hurt our progress. As everyone here knows, his death and bad hiring decisions (and firing decisions in the case of Burke) lead to the Widerness Campaign of the mid-1980s to mid-1990s.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 11:47:22 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
I think we need to rename South Green drive appropriately, Frank Solich Way, it goes past the Academic Center and IPF that would not be possible without Frank.


+1

Not a bad idea, at all!

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Maddog13
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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 11:59:26 AM 
Bobcat1996 wrote:
Two historically top 10 programs come to mind when replacing coaches. The Sooners Lincoln Riley replaced Stoops and was excellent last season. Small sample size as he is only in his 2nd season, but Oklahoma was a top 4 team in 2017. Since Pete Carroll left USC for the NFL, they have been ok, but not dominant. Some would say they have underachieved.


Having previously lived in L.A. for 33 years, I don't think that you can use the University of Spoiled Children as a good example. They were hurt significantly by NCAA sanctions under Pete Carroll, which they are just beginning to distance themselves from. They also brought in former star from yesteryear turned conservative/Superman Scholar Pat Hayden to clean up the program and thus bring it credibility, only to discover that playing by the rules and not cheating like other programs that you are competing against is a clear recipe for disaster. In the process, Lane Kiffin was run out of town and Ed Orgeron saved what would have otherwise been a lost season in unexpectedly Heroic fashion, only to be passed over for Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian then succumbed to pressure put on him to win immediately and fell off of the wagon, only to, ultimately, be replaced by good soldier Clay Helton, who has the distinction of being both the 26th and 28th Head Coach for USC, when he filled in for Orgeron; when ole' Ed decided to give USC the finger and walk away from coaching them in their scheduled bowl game that year after being passed over to hire Sarkisian. Helton has done a solid job, but I think that the L.A., what have you done for me lately, crowd have now turned their attention to the NFL coming back to town.

Last Edited: 6/30/2018 12:01:11 PM by Maddog13
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 12:14:28 PM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:

I'm sure that if someone wants to dig around, they can find plenty of examples of cases where an assistant coach took over for a retiring coach, and retained the rest of the staff. Probably some turned out well, and some not so well. On average, I'd expect a slight reversion towards the mean.


I know that is your opinion that Ohio would return to a sub .500 football team once Frank leaves but you neglect how much the program dynamics have changed since the 80's and 90's. ...

My opinion is that history gives us a base on what to expect. That doesn't mean we can't try to improve on that, nor that that you can't hope for better. I don't expect an instant drop back to the kinds of records that the Bryant years produced. I simply expect some reversion towards the mean. Thus, after Peden came Widdoes, who was good, but not quite as good. After Hess came Burke, who again, was not quite as good. Then, in the turnover that follows, sometimes you get another great coach, and sometimes you get something worse.


What you are saying is to completely ignore the fact that those records were produced in different eras under different rules and different competitive dynamics. Its like we should expect the UK to make another run at regaining the 13 colonies sometime within the next century because they did so 200 years ago. The current G5 competitive dynamic was put into place starting in 2014 where its the AAC, MAC, MWC, CUSA, SBC chasing a CFP bowl. In this new era Ohio has averaged 7.75 wins. Frank if he goes on to win 11 games each of the next season and retires that sets the mean at about 9 wins. Then we could expect the next coach to win 9 games in Athens as a revision to the mean. The bottom in the G5 era is 6-6 (2014). In the previous era of the Top 12/16 BCS bowl access rule going back to 2006 the bottom was 4-8 (2008). That era was also comparable enough since the 12 game schedule was in place and Ohio began to play an annual FCS program. The mean going back to 2006 for Ohio is 7.83 wins. Knorr ball was played in a different era of a 2 bowl MAC on 11 game schedules. Go back to the early Grobe years and the MAC only had 10 teams. Go back to the early 90's and the MAC played at a different scholarship limit then other conferences.

It sounds like what you are saying is that since things are always changing, you can't learn anything from history. I respectfully disagree. Things do change, but not everything, and therefore, history remains relevant.

Uncle Wes wrote:
...Then we could expect the next coach to win 9 games in Athens as a revision to the mean...

You can expect anything you like, but you may or may not get it.

Last Edited: 6/30/2018 12:15:15 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 12:27:11 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
Hess was the one who should have put in the foundation for a next level 35,000 seat stadium. Peden Stadium was already 30 years old when he started coaching.


Well, I don’t know about the size, but Hess certainly had plans to build a new stadium and to further enhance the program. I once talked to him about his vision. He thought we could compete at a higher level in the future. His untimely death from testicular cancer really, really hurt our progress. As everyone here knows, his death and bad hiring decisions (and firing decisions in the case of Burke) lead to the Widerness Campaign of the mid-1980s to mid-1990s.


He was only 55 when he died which is quite young. He was 54 when he coached his last season in 1977 and could have easily coached up to 1990 saving those years of churn in the 80's. All that time he would have been recruiting with 4 MAC titles in hand. Could he have influenced the redevelopment of Peden in a different way like a bigger student section instead of the eyesore corner seats? Ping pursued the antique look over trying to look the part of a larger program. Also conference affiliation opportunities that were around in the 80's and 90's Hess didn't have an opportunity to weigh in and use his influence to make a move.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 1:51:43 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:

I'm sure that if someone wants to dig around, they can find plenty of examples of cases where an assistant coach took over for a retiring coach, and retained the rest of the staff. Probably some turned out well, and some not so well. On average, I'd expect a slight reversion towards the mean.


I know that is your opinion that Ohio would return to a sub .500 football team once Frank leaves but you neglect how much the program dynamics have changed since the 80's and 90's. ...

My opinion is that history gives us a base on what to expect. That doesn't mean we can't try to improve on that, nor that that you can't hope for better. I don't expect an instant drop back to the kinds of records that the Bryant years produced. I simply expect some reversion towards the mean. Thus, after Peden came Widdoes, who was good, but not quite as good. After Hess came Burke, who again, was not quite as good. Then, in the turnover that follows, sometimes you get another great coach, and sometimes you get something worse.


What you are saying is to completely ignore the fact that those records were produced in different eras under different rules and different competitive dynamics. Its like we should expect the UK to make another run at regaining the 13 colonies sometime within the next century because they did so 200 years ago. The current G5 competitive dynamic was put into place starting in 2014 where its the AAC, MAC, MWC, CUSA, SBC chasing a CFP bowl. In this new era Ohio has averaged 7.75 wins. Frank if he goes on to win 11 games each of the next season and retires that sets the mean at about 9 wins. Then we could expect the next coach to win 9 games in Athens as a revision to the mean. The bottom in the G5 era is 6-6 (2014). In the previous era of the Top 12/16 BCS bowl access rule going back to 2006 the bottom was 4-8 (2008). That era was also comparable enough since the 12 game schedule was in place and Ohio began to play an annual FCS program. The mean going back to 2006 for Ohio is 7.83 wins. Knorr ball was played in a different era of a 2 bowl MAC on 11 game schedules. Go back to the early Grobe years and the MAC only had 10 teams. Go back to the early 90's and the MAC played at a different scholarship limit then other conferences.

It sounds like what you are saying is that since things are always changing, you can't learn anything from history. I respectfully disagree. Things do change, but not everything, and therefore, history remains relevant.


The game has different eras. The post WWII up to 1989 is a comparable era for Ohio as it was competing at a level equivalent to the FCS. Yes I know there were some good wins in that time period but we were not on a level playing field with the Big Ten or Big 8. Facilities were the same during that period. To make a comparison between Hess and Cleve Bryant as to who was able to get it done on the field is a fair comparison. Comparing Grobe and Knorr is a fair comparison. 1990 to 2005 is a transitional era from the old Ohio football to the new. Subdividing the post WWII era into 1946-1968 and 1969-1989 could also be done. Pre-WWII Ohio football divides mostly into the early Ohio football era pre-Don Peden and the Peden golden age of Ohio Football. As you've said SE Ohio doesn't produce a lot of football talent relative to other regions of the state but was that true back in the 1930's when Peden was coaching? Could he tap into an hour radius around Athens including parts of West Virginia for talent?

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 6/30/2018 2:05:24 PM 
Solich is coaching in an era with 85 scholarships, APR requirements, the ability to recruit on the basis of participating in a major bowl, having a non-conference schedule designed to pad wins. This is no different than the rules the power schools are playing by aside from the 12-15 biggest franchises who are pitching 4 team playoff. Ohio football has won an average of 7.75 games under the modern rules. How has the modern era done for Miami and Kent State the programs sitting on all this talent in their immediate backyard? What its showing is Ohio's performance was hindered in earlier eras where it was on a more unequal playing field so the OHIO brand wasn't taking root.

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2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Frank's replacement
   Posted: 7/1/2018 8:53:13 PM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:

I'm sure that if someone wants to dig around, they can find plenty of examples of cases where an assistant coach took over for a retiring coach, and retained the rest of the staff. Probably some turned out well, and some not so well. On average, I'd expect a slight reversion towards the mean.


I know that is your opinion that Ohio would return to a sub .500 football team once Frank leaves but you neglect how much the program dynamics have changed since the 80's and 90's. Back in those days there wasn't the scholarship and academic limitations so Nebraska would stack players so other conference mates couldn't have them and so on down the line. Anything that happened in the MAC before 1997 when it moved to 12 teams is ancient history of events that occurred in a different era. Another huge factor is the 12 game schedule with 6 home games. Ohio can bake a few wins into the non-conference total to help pad on a down year like they did in 2014. Any winning season is now a bowl game which bakes in publicity. Grobe's tenure at Ohio twenty years later is now forgotten without a few bowl games as milestone. It wasn't his fault it was the rules of the day but it diminutizes the job he did at Ohio. Then of course the facilities, weight programs and technology have changed since the dark days of Ohio football. Its been 10 years since Ohio has won less than 6 games. Its been 15 years since Ohio has been really bad winning less than 4 games. This is a different era.

I think your most significant point is the importance of Grobes job at Ohio. He proved that you can win here, his tenure was a turning point in many ways.

I do think that Ohio is not alone in improving facilities. Our biggest negative is Peden which is falling apart and has to be the worst FCS stadium, although there may be a hellhole some where that I’m not familiar with.


In 1989 the only football facility Ohio had was a basic locker room and the MAC played at a lower scholarship limit. Grobe was the first coach at Ohio to play his entire tenure under the universal rule of 85 scholarships. The period between 1989 and 2005 was transitional for Ohio between competing in what amounted to FCS ball to the G5 ball we play today. As to Peden what would make sense is to draft up a plan for a 50,000 seat stadium and try to pitch it to a P5 conference that if invited we will build out.


That’s what I’m talking about, time to build out Peden. We are consistently selling out, time to move to 35-40K
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