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Topic: RE: General Chaos

Topic: RE: General Chaos

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OhioStunter
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/12/2016 9:05:05 PM

I'm sure Nebraska had the same line of thinking when it fired Solich. He had 5 Top 20 -- 3 Top 10 -- finishes in his 6 years as HC, including as high as #2 in the Coaches Poll. They obviously wanted more and looked elsewhere for someone to get them there.

12 seasons later, Nebraska has had only had 2 Top 20 finishes, never cracking the Top 10, with the highest being #14. Ask Nebraska fans if they were better off without Frank.

Hey, I'm not the biggest Solich lover -- despite these posts that defend his performance at Ohio. He has flaws. I think his recruiting has been mediocre and his performance against MAC schools over the past year has just been average -- which is a problem for me too. He's lost big games on big stages.

However, if the argument is that there's a better solution out there, that there's some magic formula for instant MAC Championships by switching coaches, that our next 11-year post-Solich era will be better than what we've experienced, I've not seen the case for it.

L.C.
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/12/2016 9:06:14 PM

Note that NIU's MAC Championships did not boost attendance. Their attendance in recent years has been below a decade ago. By contrast, BG's attendance did go up, but I suspect it was more related to the excitement and big scores that their coach generated, rather than due to the MACC.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

CA Bobcat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/12/2016 11:00:07 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

The CEO analogy is a pretty good one. And a CEO is is pretty much judged on ONLY the quarterly EPS.

Harsh? Maybe. But it's 1) the reality and 2) why CEOs get paid a LOT of money.

The CEO analogy is very apt re a head football coach in D1.

All the measures that can be done by anyone without winning and/or that are minimal (must be done or else firing justified, but no partic credit given for accomplishing) are really not important. Because almost anyone can do them. Winning--not so easy.

I get it. We're not Alabama or USC. So, our coach isn't going to be burned at the stake for a run of 2 or 3 bad games.

But 11 years of no MAC coupled with the continuing...going on four years...of seasons with a LOT of really bad losses??? I dare say that there are quite few D1 programs where the coach could survive them. And I bet we'd look down our noses at almost all of those programs, even as minor of a program as we are.

Love Solich and staff all you want. Get into it.

But you'll never convince me that he's other than mediocre.

Hey, try this. Discuss the facts of Solich's W-L record with someone from OSU or BG or Tennessee or Penn State or Virginia Tech or Arizona, etc. Ask if he'd be kept on at their school. Or, forgetting age, whether they'd want him hired at their school.

How long am I going to have to keep orienting so many of you to the real world, keep getting you past your personal biases.

Hey, how about Bcat2 responding with some SolichIsGod stuff! After posting the most cringe-worthy post ever on this website a day or so ago, nothing will stop his shilling.

Sticking with the CEO analogy...If my CEO was found to have posted 7,700+ times on a college sports message board in the span of 12 years, I'd be embarrassed for him and then I'd fire him. That's like 2 posts/day every day for 12 straight years!! And, I'd venture to guess that 4,298 posts say the same exact thing. Pathetic!

bobcatsquared
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 6:45:52 AM

^^Finally, a post from Cali that is spot on.^^

And it took him/her only 10 posts.

Last Edited: 9/13/2016 6:46:47 AM by bobcatsquared

GoCats105
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 7:17:46 AM

OhioStunter wrote:

The only counter to the argument I would add, or more like a question is, how long is long enough? Has Frank basically done enough at Ohio to make it on his terms when and if he decides to retire? Probably.

But if you're Jim Schaus and you want bigger things for your football program (which he may not), do you pull Frank aside and say "hey, what you've done for us is great, but we feel like we should be succeeding at a higher level and want to go in a different direction."

I think eventually if the MAC Championship doesn't happen then Frank and Jim will come to some sort of agreement like we've seen at Michigan with Lloyd Carr, Virginia Tech with Frank Beamer, etc.

Last Edited: 9/13/2016 7:18:22 AM by GoCats105

Lande71
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 7:44:28 AM

CA Bobcat wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Not to mention that many of his posts appear to be written during his work hours! If I'm his ceo I'm wondering why he is spending time on this board instead of his job? Grounds to be fired?

Robert Fox
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 8:50:54 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Discuss the facts of Solich's W-L record with someone from...Tennessee. Ask if he'd be kept on at their school. Or, forgetting age, whether they'd want him hired at their school.

You mean like Philip Fulmer? Tennessee fans (like you) couldn't wait to fire Fulmer. He was "Fat Fulmer" to them (very mature, by the way) and run out of town on a rail.

Since then, Tennessee is now on their third coach after Fulmer, and the ship has not been righted--at least not to Tennessee's satisfaction. The current coach is on the thinnest of ice. If by some miracle Ohio wins in Knoxville, this could VERY likely be Butch's last year. Not that the fans are worried about that. Most are predicting an easy game. Even the local radio shows are claiming this game will be "relatively easy."

That kind of talk sets the stage for burning Butch at the stake. If Tennessee struggles with Ohio--never mind loses--then Butch will be painted as totally incompetent, unable to adjust, unmotivating, conservative!, boring!, and an overall boil on the ass of SEC football.

colobobcat66
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 1:19:28 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

The CEO analogy is a pretty good one. And a CEO is is pretty much judged on ONLY the quarterly EPS.

If that were true, most CEO's wouldn't last very long. How long would Elon Musk had lasted at Tesla? How many profitable quarters has Amazon had? Etc.
As usual, you are looking at ONLY a MACC to determine what is acceptable success. Hopeless logic.

mid70sbobcat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 1:30:33 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Actually a CEO is judged on a lot of financials. EPS is but one measure. Quarterly Revenues are also a biggie. And more important than either of those two is FORWARDING looking guidance.

A company that beats on EPS but cuts guidance will see its stock hammered.

Similarly, a coach has quite a few performance measures he's evaluated against.

C Money
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 1:44:26 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

The CEO analogy is a pretty good one. And a CEO is is pretty much judged on ONLY the quarterly EPS.

On the flip side of that coin (fired despite lots of profits)....Roger Ailes....

Paul Graham
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 1:52:37 PM

Just to weigh in on this...

I've accepted that Frank will not take this program beyond the 2011 team. In fact, it seems that since then we've regressed slightly and settled in to a comfortable space where we struggle to compete with the elite teams in the league (#EL1TE if you're referring to Fleck's bunch) but normally knock off the lesser teams.

For a coach like Frank with sooo much experience and success at the top tier of CFB, this is really a low bar. But he's performing his job satisfactorily and still meeting these relatively modest objectives.

That said, the product Frank puts on the field (particularly this year) is still fun to watch. We're competitive in most of our games and win more than we lose.

Isn't that enough? Do we really need more than that? By replacing Frank, what exactly are we trying to achieve?

CFB will probably be dead in 20 years anyway. Shouldn't we just enjoy it while we still can?

colobobcat66
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 2:22:57 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

I agree with most that you said here. I felt as miserable after the Texas State loss as any I can remember, but I enjoyed attending the Kansas beat down about as much as any. I've got to remember to expect lows and highs.
I'm not seeing the 20 year thing, but it's going to continue to change for sure.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 7:25:36 PM

My mind is changed.

Whensoever, some long way out when we are looking for a new coach, I want someone who's dedicated to never winning the MAC.

And, yes, I too fear that we might end up with a coach who's no better than Solich. Given that, we should consider never replacing him (no matter his condition) or not hiring anyone. Because the fear of a turnover..sorry, the fear of the next coach not being better...should be paralyzing.

I see the light. I, too, now am happy with the joy of mediocrity.

Beat Gardner-Webb!

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L.C.
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/13/2016 9:00:09 PM

OhioStunter wrote:

...
However, if the argument is that there's a better solution out there, that there's some magic formula for instant MAC Championships by switching coaches, that our next 11-year post-Solich era will be better than what we've experienced, I've not seen the case for it.

Let's examine the concept. Solich is clearly a better than average coach. He did better at Nebraska than any of his successors. He did better at Ohio than any of his predecessors dating back to Hess, with the possible exception of Grobe. He has taken a program that was well below average, and has made it consistently better than average. He has also built the program in numerous other ways. Things like the upgraded lockers, the IPF, and the new student center have all upgraded the program. By recruiting more and more in-state players, he's been generating more awareness of the Ohio program around the state. (As an example, since adding AJ, Ohio now has many more fans in the Covington area than before). Thus, each year that Solich stays, the program gets stronger in a variety of ways. With or without a MACC, the table is being set for prolonged success.

Now the other side. Each year a number of new coaches are promoted to being an FBS head coach. A few of them do win a conference championship. The vast majority don't. It's a gamble, and you can have failures even when you have a huge budget, as Nebraska does. It's even more of a gamble with MAC-sized budgets. I'm going to guess that in the last eleven years there have been about 50 new coaches hired into the MAC. Of those, a few have won championships, and a few have been able to move up even without a championship, but the vast majority are no longer head coaches.

If you ignore dream scenarios, and look at the odds realistically, what will happen when Ohio does replace Solich (regardless of whether it is sooner or later)? Based on my observation of other MAC football coaching hires, I'd say that there is about a 13% chance of hiring a coach who would take Ohio to a MACC, and then leave (e.g. Dave Clawson, Dave Doeren, Turner Gill, Dino Babers, Brian Kelly, Butch Jones). There is another 7% chance of a coach who will take them to the MACC, lose, then leave (e.g. Darrell Hazell, Jerry Kill, Brady Hoke). There is also about a 20% chance of a hire who might take Ohio to the bottom of the MAC (e.g. Rob Ianello, Shane Montgomery, Don Treadwell, Ron English, Jeff Genyk, Paul Haynes, Charlie Molnar, Stan Parrish). That leaves about a 60% chance of a hire somewhere in the middle.

Most of the programs with the strongest tradition (NIU, CMU, BG, Toledo, Miami), but not all, have managed to avoid the really bad hires. Hopefully Ohio will have a strong enough tradition that when they do replace Solich, then can avoid a bad one, but there is no guarantee.

Last Edited: 9/13/2016 9:08:52 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 12:28:39 AM

Laughable.

Assuming that Solich at OHIO is clearly better than average and going from there.

You put up a bunch of conclusions and 'whatevers (took a program below average...spread awareness).

Simple as this: When we hire the next guy, will it be okay that he goes 11 years without a MAC title? Speak with fans of other schools and, without stating Solich's name, tell them Solich's record at Ohio (games, opponents, scores, year by year record) and ask them if they'd want him.

Honestly, you SFB wouldn't recognize a legitimate standard of achievement if it smacked you in the face.

L.C.
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 1:41:36 AM

How many other G5 schools have been bowl eligible 9 of the last 10 years? How many have a better winning percentage than Ohio? If the answer is that more than 50% of them have, then maybe you have a point, but the fact is that you don't have one. If you want to argue about whether he's in the upper 5% of coaches, then you have a point, but to claim he's not above average is just absurd.

It's equally absurd to simply assume that the next coach will automatically be from the top 5%. He might be. He also might be from the bottom 5%. More likely he'll be from the center somewhere. I think Schaus will make a wise choice, but there is never a sure thing.

Last Edited: 9/14/2016 2:08:45 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 2:28:34 AM

Seriously, dude, take a look at the crashing losses of the last 4 years--and tell me, after 11 years here, that Solich is much on recruiting and coaching,

To think that he is above average is preposterous.

Also, answer my questsions: 1) How long do we give him until lack of a MAC title is meaningful? 2) If we know going in that the next coach won't MAC title for 11 years, will you want him er or hhired? 3) Tell fans of other schools Solich's game/opponent/season records thru the OHIO years and see if they'd want him hired at their school?

(I don't care about his Nebraska years. That's ancient history and has nothing to do with OHIO.)

mid70sbobcat
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 8:37:58 AM

L.C. wrote:

+1 for pointing out yet more facts

Monroe's problem is that he ignores most facts. Instead the ONLY fact he sees as relevant is a MACC.

L.C.
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 11:06:08 AM

mid70sbobcat wrote:

L.C. wrote:

+1 for pointing out yet more facts

Monroe's problem is that he ignores most facts. Instead the ONLY fact he sees as relevant is a MACC.

I don't believe that he considers any facts. He seems to operate solely on feelings. He feels unhappy, so he believes it must be justified. It's as simple as that. For example, over the last decade, 38 teams had better winning percentages than Ohio, while 85 had worse percentages. If one looked at the facts, it would take an impossible amount of rationalization to make that into "worse than average". However, if you simply ignore the facts completely, you can just go with your feelings, and then the truth can be whatever you feel it is.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

AudioCat'13
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 11:09:26 AM

L.C. wrote:

AKA the Dusty Baker Effect for Reds fans....

GoCats105
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 11:22:42 AM

L.C. wrote:

Schaus is damn good at hiring coaches. I can't wait to see what he does with football if he gets the opportunity.

But since you asked, now I'm gonna do research and see what G5 programs have made the most bowls in the last 10 years.

I think the longer this goes on and the more bowl games that get introduced, we may have to take a step back and realize that's not the best measuring stick for a good coach. Number of wins, win percentage and some other things might be better.

L.C.
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 12:45:58 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

Schaus is damn good at hiring coaches. I can't wait to see what he does with football if he gets the opportunity...

I agree, and I think he'll do well, but there are no sure things.

GoCats105 wrote:

...But since you asked, now I'm gonna do research and see what G5 programs have made the most bowls in the last 10 years. ...

I'm going to take a wile guess that the average G5 program has gone to about 3 bowls in the last ten years.

GoCats105 wrote:

... I think the longer this goes on and the more bowl games that get introduced, we may have to take a step back and realize that's not the best measuring stick for a good coach. Number of wins, win percentage and some other things might be better.

I would agree that it's not the "best" measure. It's just one of many. Since all it takes anymore is a bare winning record, going to bowls is merely a measure of a coach's ability to consistently be above average, rather than truly excelling. I personally look at win percentage more, because that tells you more about how far above average a coach is.

A more difficult question is how you measure a coach like Solich against one like Hess. Solich's teams at Ohio have consistently been very good, rarely great. By contrast Hess had a couple great ones, but also some really awful ones. Solich has a higher winning percentage, but not the titles. Sadly, I think that if Hess was coaching in today's environment, 1968 would never have happened, because he'd have been fired after 1965. Sure, 1960 was great, and 1961-63 were pretty good, but 1964 was only 5-4-1, and 1965 was 0-10.

Last Edited: 9/14/2016 12:52:51 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

GoCats105
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 12:55:33 PM

Ok here's the list I came up with. I did the ones with the most bowls and a few outliers that I thought were interesting.

AAC

Cincinnati - 9 bowls in the last 10 years, 10 in the last 12
East Carolina - 8 bowls in the last 10 years
Central Florida - 6 bowls in the last 10 years
Navy - 12 bowls in the last 13 years
Houston - 8 bowls in the last 10 years, 10 in the last 13

Conference USA

Tulsa - 7 bowls in the last 10 years
Marshall - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Rice - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Southern Miss - 7 bowls in the last 10 years, 15 in the last 19

MAC

Bowling Green - 6 bowls in the last 10 years
Central Michigan - 7 bowls in the last 10 years
Toledo - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Western Michigan - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Northern Illinois - 9 bowls in the last 10 years

Mountain West

Air Force - 8 bowls in the last 10 years
Boise State - 14 straight bowl appearances, 16 in the last 17
Colorado State - 4 bowls in the last 10 years
Utah State - 4 bowls in the last 10 years
San Diego State - 6 bowls in the last 10 years
Fresno State - 7 bowls in the last 10 years
Nevada - 9 bowls in the last 10 years

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette - 4 bowls in the last 10 years
Troy - 4 bowls in the last 10 years
Arkansas State - 5 bowls in the last 10 years

Last Edited: 9/14/2016 12:56:14 PM by GoCats105

L.C.
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 1:56:14 PM

So, editing your list, and adding Brigham Young:
1. Boise State - 14 straight bowl appearances, 16 in the last 17
Brigham Young - 11 straight bowl appearances
3. Navy - 12 bowls in the last 13 years
Cincinnati - 9 bowls in the last 10 years, 10 in the last 12
Northern Illinois - 9 bowls in the last 10 years
Nevada - 9 bowls in the last 10 years
7. Houston - 8 bowls in the last 10 years, 10 in the last 13
East Carolina - 8 bowls in the last 10 years
Air Force - 8 bowls in the last 10 years
10. Ohio - 7 bowls in the last 10 years
Tulsa - 7 bowls in the last 10 years
Southern Miss - 7 bowls in the last 10 years, 15 in the last 19
Central Michigan - 7 bowls in the last 10 years
Fresno State - 7 bowls in the last 10 years
14. San Diego State - 6 bowls in the last 10 years
Bowling Green - 6 bowls in the last 10 years
Central Florida - 6 bowls in the last 10 years
17. Marshall - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Rice - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Toledo - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Western Michigan - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
Arkansas State - 5 bowls in the last 10 years
21. Colorado State - 4 bowls in the last 10 years
Utah State - 4 bowls in the last 10 years
Louisiana-Lafayette - 4 bowls in the last 10 years
Troy - 4 bowls in the last 10 years

So, of 60 or so G-5 schools, Ohio is tied for 10th.

For what it's worth, the overall win percentage of G5 teams over the last ten years:
1. Boise State .856
2. Brigham Young .715
3. Cincinnati .695
4. Houston .667
5. Navy .654
6. Northern Ill .644
7. Ohio .585
8. East Carolina .577
9. Nevada .569
Tulsa .569
11. CMU .546
12. Marshall .543
13. Fresno St. .535
14. BG .527
15. La-Lafayette .516
16. MTSU .512
17. San Diego State .512
18. La-Tech .508
19. Ball State .504
20. Troy .500

Note that since there are about 60 G5 team, the average G5 team has a losing record. That's fairly obvious, since most of the time when P5 teams play G5 teams, the P5 team wins.

Last Edited: 9/14/2016 2:11:18 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OU_Country
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RE: General Chaos

Posted: 9/14/2016 2:09:26 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

I think the longer this goes on and the more bowl games that get introduced, we may have to take a step back and realize that's not the best measuring stick for a good coach. Number of wins, win percentage and some other things might be better.

I'm not in the Frank sucks camp, but I'm not in the love Frank camp necessarily either. More to the point for me, I feel like his sticking with the same staff for so long has created something of a "staleness" in some cases. The one that comes to mind is in some things they do on offense.

The reason I quoted this part of the conversation though is that I fully agree that simply getting to a bowl game these days isn't what it used to be. When almost every 6-6 or 7-6 teams get a bowl bid, that's no longer a measuring stick for a really good program. It's kind of like college basketball. We used to get excited about 20 win seasons, whereas now it doesn't mean as much.

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