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Topic: Leavening...disagree if you will

Topic: Leavening...disagree if you will

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Monroe Slavin
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Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/14/2016 3:37:23 PM

I'm glad for the optimistic enthusiasm here. I hope that all are correct about our prospects.

But I think it's fair to add in some different viewpoint...understanding that neither side is entirely correct, that the truth will probably be somewhere in between.

First, to me, football is quarterbacking--with the necessary corollary of getting pressure on the quarterback.

So, when I read that there are little concerns about the quality of our quarterbacks, I'm not so sure. Seems to me that we've consistently had problems against decent but experienced and consistent quarterbacks. The backside of that is that our qb's lack of consistency is a concern.

We don't need an All-American qb. But it would be nice to have a qb who was as consistent and durable as #45 is at running back.

No qb, no ring.

Then, we have an O-line that will have two new starters (right?!) so is not proven. Could hold us back.

Pass pressure--a definite necessity unless your defense is overall very, very solid. We have only one guy, Poling, who is clearly ...by achieved performance...All-MAC. And there are question marks in the defensive backfield.

Last is coaching. Solich is so damned predictable and conservative. We seem to never have an edge here.

Here's from the latest issue of SI.

First about Houston and their remarkable turnaround last year under Tom Herman in his first year after coming from O-coordinator and qb coach at OSU: "Herman's travels taught him that spreading the field and ramping up tempo could compensate for talent gaps."

Am I done yelling at you about run some up tempo. No. I'm not.

Coaching, strategy matter. Keep seeing us fail to use coaching in a reasonably original way to gain advantage over our peer teams.

Then, in the profile of San Diego State (which SI ranks as their #24 team): "What they want to do is bludgeon people; you are going to see a lot of two-tight-end, two-back sets. It's unusual and teams have a hard time defending it."

Am I done yelling at you for two-back sets. No. I'm not.

Not every play is a bolt of lightning. But at some point we need to quit doing the same thing over and over.

I'll bet that hurry up and true two-back sets would not cause the sky to fall, would not be so unorthodox as to get our coaching staff fired immediately.

Last Edited: 8/14/2016 3:37:49 PM by Monroe Slavin

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Bcat2
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/14/2016 4:27:04 PM

OL replacing three starters.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

OU_Country
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/14/2016 7:13:32 PM

When it comes to your feelings regarding QB play, I fully agree. It's not the only factor, but it's fairly simple to trace this programs struggles since 2011 to inconsistent Quarterback play. TT was outstanding in 2011, less so in 2012. Everyone who has followed him has either been ineffective, unable to stay on the field, or a combination of the two.

I think it's completely fair to say that improvement over the last few seasons from the QB position is absolutely the biggest difference between getting the MACC or not. Just don't take that to read the ONLY difference, because I also recognize that there are 21 other guys that start out there who have a say in that success.

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/14/2016 8:52:49 PM

Generally I agree, it's all about the QB!

And then I remember, look at who won the NCAA Championship and who won the Super Bowl last year. Heck, I don't even remember who Alabama's QB was, and for the Broncos, Peyton Manning was average at best. Both teams won with decent offenses and DOMINANT defenses.

Does Ohio have that? Ehh, I don't know. On August 14th I'm not about to label Ohio's defense as "dominant" just yet. Hopefully it will be. We will see.

That being said, I'd feel a lot more confident if Ohio had a difference-making QB, that's for sure.

allen
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/14/2016 10:09:27 PM

I think the freshmen coming in are going to be great. We might have our answer at QB in Drew Keszei or Gage Moloney.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

Bobcat1998
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 7:41:04 AM

OU_Country wrote:

I agree about needing to keep a quarterback on the field. Sprague or Windham does us no good if they are injured. And for now, our quarterback needs to simply be Alex Smith. They need to be a game manager who completes short passes (when did we get away from those slants that TT killed people on in 2011?). We need the quarterback to be able to hand off to our stable of backs. We need him to be able to scramble a bit and run a bit of the option. We need him to take care of the football. I'm not thinking we will lead the league in deep balls. That honor will go to Rush or Terrell. Look at Northern. Lynch was just an amazing leader and game manager. He wasn't a deep ball guy. I think the less pressure the QB has in our system the better. TT didn't respond to the pressure his senior year. Let's see if Sprague or Windham do.

allen
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 7:48:44 AM

Bobcat1998 wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

We need to throw some deep balls to keep eight out of the box.

Last Edited: 8/15/2016 9:01:12 AM by allen

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

Jeff McKinney
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 8:31:26 AM

It's true that we have to get good QB play if we our to reach our potential this year.

C Money
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 8:41:59 AM

Normally I'm a "pick your QB early and go with him" guy, but I think I am OK with a platoon system this year. #1, with the way we run them we always deal with injuries to the QB, so the more game experience we can get the better. #2, each guy shows flashes at times, so run a few series with each and see who has the hot hand in any given game.

Good cat Good cat
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 8:51:22 AM

Yes, QB is absolutely key. Both potential starters have been inconsistent and/or ineffective overall with some scattered flashes of good to great plays.
2 back sets? Meh.

OU_Country
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 11:46:18 AM

C Money wrote:

I've never been a fan of the two headed quarterback. I can see the points you're trying to make, but to me, you've gotta have one guy that you designate as THE guy, the leader. The #2 can get lots of snaps late in games if you're ahead, and get practice snaps hopefully.

El Gato Roberto
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 11:55:10 AM

OU_Country wrote:

C Money wrote:

I support naming a starter, but let the competition continue. Appointment of "QB for Life" makes it difficult to send a struggling starter to the bench. Competition is the key. Not having a viable #2 available during TT's last season probably cost the team wins.

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

L.C.
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 12:24:34 PM

QB is important, but far, far from the sole factor. That should be readily apparent from the constant discussion of TT. In 2011, TT was surrounded by some of the best offensive players of the Solich era, including the best offensive line, and the best receivers. By mid-2012, after all the injuries, he was surrounded by a very different group, and he couldn't do the same things.

Whoever the QB is this year, they will be surrounded by very good players. They will have a very good offensive line up front. The right side will be veteran, with Pruehs, Wood, and Watson. The left side will have less experience, but at LG Cooper and Gibbons have some experience, and at LT Lowerey and Pleasants are very young but very talented. The receivers this year are as good as any year under Solich except 2011. The running backs may be the best group yet.

In 2016, the rest of the offense will make the QB, whoever he is, look better. So long as the QB isn't making a lot of mistakes, I'll be happy. With even decent QB play, I expect this offense to put up over 30 points a game, comparable to 2011. With that win a MACC? Nope. You can't win a championship with offense. One of the best offenses of the Solich era was 2007, and they only won half the games. To win championships, you need defense. Even BG, with their high-powered offense, didn't win a championship until they fixed their defense.

So, how will the defense be? In my mind, this is the best overall defensive line ever under Solich, and it isn't even close. 2012 (before injuries) and 2010 were good, but not this good. The linebackers are also outstanding, up there with 2006 and 2008. What about the DBs? They are unproven. There is some talent, though. How quickly they mature, and how well they play will be the key to a MACC.

The safeties do have a returning Toran Davis and Kylan Nelson, if they can stay healthy, plus some talent in Hagan and Bo Hardy, among others, but the CB position is the most scary to me. Not one player has ever played a single snap for the Bobcats. The CB coach will earn his salary this year, and if Ohio does win a MACC, he will deserve a lot of the credit.

If the DBs turn out OK, and don't burned a lot, I think that this defense can hold teams under 24 points a game. If they do, combined with the >30 that the offense should score, this will be a very successful team. If the DBs struggle, then the defense will give up a lot of points even with the excellent front seven. If they give up >29 points a game, the results won't please anyone.

So, Monroe, I completely disagree. QB play will not determine if Ohio wins a MACC. Neither will 2-back sets, nor hurry up offense. What will determine will be the play from the defensive backs. Give me Wells and Carrie back there, and a MACC would be a done deal. With nothing but inexperience, it will be an adventure. I still think they can do it, but that's just relying on faith that some corners will emerge and get the job done.

Last Edited: 8/15/2016 12:30:52 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

allen
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 12:31:50 PM

L.C. wrote:

QB is important, but far, far from the sole factor. That should be readily apparent from the constant discussion of TT. In 2011, TT was surrounded by some of the best offensive players of the Solich era, including the best offensive line, and the best receivers. By mid-2012, after all the injuries, he was surrounded by a very different group, and he couldn't do the same things.

Whoever the QB is this year, they will be surrounded by very good players. They will have a very good offensive line up front. The right side will be veteran, with Pruehs, Wood, and Watson. The left side will have less experience, but at LG Cooper and Gibbons have some experience, and at LT Lowerey and Pleasants are very young but very talented. The receivers this year are as good as any year under Solich except 2011. The running backs may be the best group yet.

In 2016, the rest of the offense will make the QB, whoever he is, look better. So long as the QB isn't making a lot of mistakes, I'll be happy. With even decent QB play, I expect this offense to put up over 30 points a game, comparable to 2011. With that win a MACC? Nope. You can't win a championship with offense. One of the best offenses of the Solich era was 2007, and they only won half the games.

To win championships, you need defense. Even BG, with their high-powered offense, didn't win a championship until they fixed their defense. So, how will the defense be? In my mind, this is the best overall defensive line ever under Solich, and it isn't even close. 2012 (before injuries) and 2010 were good, but not this good. The linebackers are also outstanding, up there with 2006 and 2008. What about the DBs? They are unproven. There is some talent, though. How quickly they mature, and how well they play will be the key to a MACC.

The safeties do have a returning Toran Davis and Kylan Nelson, if they can stay healthy, plus some talent in Hagan and Bo Hardy, among others, but the CB position is the most scary to me. Not one player has ever played a single snap for the Bobcats. The CB coach will earn his salary this year, and if Ohio does win a MACC, he will deserve a lot of the credit.

If the DBs turn out OK, and don't burned a lot, I think that this defense can hold teams under 24 points a game. If they do, combined with the >30 that the offense should score, this will be a very successful team. If the DBs struggle, then the defense will give up a lot of points even with the excellent front five. If they give up >29 points a game, the results won't please anyone.

So, Monroe, I completely disagree. QB play will not determine if Ohio wins a MACC. Neither will 2-back sets, nor hurry up offense. What will determine will be the play from the defensive backs. Give me Wells and Carrie back there, and a MACC would be a done deal. With nothing but inexperience, it will be an adventure.

TT went into self preservation mode, he wasn't making the right reads when he needed to run. He had alot of talent in 2012, he just had a bad year. It all started with the Sports Illustrated article. The QB will be the key this year, we need the QB to keep eight out of the box. We need to get Smith and Reid the Ball, they are playmakers, they deserve a shot at the NFL.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

allen
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 12:32:53 PM

El Gato Roberto wrote:

OU_Country wrote:

C Money wrote:

well spoken

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes

L.C.
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 1:11:37 PM

allen wrote:

He had a fair amount of talent at the beginning of 2012, particularly on the OL, but by mid-season the players remaining were not nearly as good. His injury was also a factor, as was the psychology of having the fans turn on him. I fully understand that fans tend to heap all the credit, and all the blame on the QB, but a successful offense depends on more than just the QB.

For what it's worth, here are how my spreadsheet rates the remainder of the offense, excluding QBs, by year:
2009 - 497 (T3, 24.8 pts/game)
2010 - 507 (Boo, 27.5 pts/game)
2011 - 603 (TT, 30.5 pts/game)
2012 early - 552 (TT, 31.7 pts/game)
2012 late - 512 (TT, 23.3 pts/game)
2013 - 544 (TT, 27.4 pts/game)
2014 - 418 (Vick, 20.5 pts/game)
2015 - 516 (Vick/Sprague, 27.5 pts/game)
2016 - 558 ?????

It's easier to look at if i re-arrange it.

Great offensive players around QB:
2011 - 603 (TT, 30.5 pts/game)
2012 early - 552 (TT, 31.7 pts/game)
2013 - 544 (TT, 27.4 pts/game)
2016 - 558 ?????

Average offensive players around QB:
2009 - 497 (T3, 24.8 pts/game)
2010 - 507 (Boo, 27.5 pts/game)
2012 late - 512 (TT, 23.3 pts/game)
2015 - 516 (Vick/Sprague, 27.5 pts/game)

Weak offensive players around QB:
2014 - 418 (Vick, 20.5 pts/game)

My conclusions are:
1. Part of why TT was as effective as we was in 2011 and early 2012 was the players around him. When the players were only average, in late 2012, his performance was significantly worse. Those saying that he didn't play as well later in his career can point to 2013 where he still had pretty good talent around him, but didn't have an outstanding season.
2. Vick and Sprague in 2015 look pretty good on this chart, considering the talent they had around them.
3. 2014 was a rebuilding year
4. The stage is set for someone to have an outstanding year in 2016.

Last Edited: 8/15/2016 1:12:52 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Ted Thompson
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 2:19:45 PM

As I sat in the Doyt on that balmy November night last year, I wondered what the Ohio/BG score would have been if Matt Johnson were quarterbacking the Bobcats. I didn't see much difference in the defenses (Poling didn't play that game, with him, I think Ohio's D was better). While Ohio didn't have a Roger Lewis, they had a good group of WRs. Same for RBs. My concern for this year's team, other than the secondary, is whether it can get All-MAC pley from the QB spot.

I went back to and looked at MAC Championship Games. I know correlation doesn't equal causation (MAC First Team QB probably is part of a great offense) but there is a strong correlation in QB play and MAC Championship Games.In 15 of the 19 games, the MAC First Team QB was playing for one of the teams. In 2 of the 4 years where there was not a First Team QB, there was a future First Team QB (Byron Leftwich in 2000 and Bruce Gradkowski in 2004).

The good news is that you CAN make a MAC Championship with a Spencer Keith.

MAC Championship Game winners and starting QB

2015 – BG Matt Johnson (First Team All-MAC)

2014 – NIU Drew Hare (None. Threw just two interceptions in 326 attempts and took just 12 sacks.)

2013 – BG Matt Johnson (Third Team All-MAC. Beat NIU QB and First Team All-MAC Jordan Lynch.)

2012 – NIU Jordan Lynch (First Team All-MAC)

2011 – NIU Chandler Harnish (First Team All-MAC)

2010 – Miami Austin Boucher (Boucher subbing for Second Team All-MAC Zac Dysert. Beat NIU QB and First Team All-MAC QB Chandler Harnish.)

2009 – CMU Dan LeFevour (First Team All-MAC)

2008 – Buffalo Drew Willy (None but was invited to NFL Combine in 2009. Beat Ball State’s First Team All-MAC QB Nate Davis.)

2007 – CMU Dan LeFevour (First Team All-MAC)

2006 – CMU Dan LeFevour (First Team All-MAC)

2005 – Akron Luke Getsy (None. Was MAC Honorable Mention QB in 2006.)

2004 – Toledo Bruce Gradkowski (None. But was First Team All-MAC in 2005.)

2003 – Miami Ben Roethlisberger (First Team All-MAC)

2002 – Marshall Byron Leftwich (First Team All-MAC)

2001 – Toledo Tavares Bolden (Second Team All-MAC. Beat Marshall’s First Team All-MAC QB Byron Leftwich.)

2000 – Marshall Byron Leftwich (None, but was future First Team All-MAC.)

1999 - Marshall Chad Pennington (First Team All-MAC)

1998 - Marshall Chad Pennington (First Team All-MAC)

1997 - Marshall Chad Pennington (First Team All-MAC)

Last Edited: 8/15/2016 2:40:57 PM by Ted Thompson

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C Money
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 2:35:51 PM

Ted Thompson wrote:

2012 – Kent St. Spencer Keith (None. Beat NIU and First Team QB Jordan Lynch.)

This is the one that should give us hope.....except that Kent St. lost to NIU in 2OT that game.....

Ted Thompson
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 2:39:57 PM

C Money wrote:

Ted Thompson wrote:

2012 – Kent St. Spencer Keith (None. Beat NIU and First Team QB Jordan Lynch.)

This is the one that should give us hope.....except that Kent St. lost to NIU in 2OT that game.....

Woops. Thanks.

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Robert Fox
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 4:23:52 PM

Ted Thompson wrote:

In 15 of the 19 games, the MAC First Team QB was playing for one of the teams.

Isn't this also a possible indicator of lazy All-MAC selection? Good teams get the accolades. Bottom dwellers don't. But sometimes the bottom dwellers have stellar athletes, they're just surrounded by ordinary athletes. The selection committee may take the easy way out, and start with the champions or runners-up. Don't know this to be true, just speculation.

Ted Thompson
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 4:35:06 PM

Robert Fox wrote:

Ted Thompson wrote:

In 15 of the 19 games, the MAC First Team QB was playing for one of the teams.

There certainly could be selection bias here. But if you use the eyeball test - Johnson, Harnish, LeFevour, Gradkowski, Roethlisberger, Leftwich and Pennington were great MAC QBs and most all spent some time in the NFL.

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giacomo
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 5:54:09 PM

When we start playing and are about half way through the season, you'll know how good we are. The wailing and gnashing of teeth is pointless right now.

MonroeClassmate
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 6:49:59 PM

L.C. wrote:

So, Monroe, I completely disagree. QB play will not determine if Ohio wins a MACC. Neither will 2-back sets, nor hurry up offense. What will determine will be the play from the defensive backs. Give me Wells and Carrie back there, and a MACC would be a done deal. With nothing but inexperience, it will be an adventure. I still think they can do it, but that's just relying on faith that some corners will emerge and get the job done.

It was only one game; recall last season's Bobcat Bowl Game. A defense could not give much more to a teams chances to win than what was on display--how many points were scored by the defense? Certainly more than you could normally expect in 3 to 4 full games.

The lackluster QB play by seasoned Bobcats led to zip on offense--one TD on a short field, complements of the defense.

OHIO must see a large step in the quality of play by the guys taking the snaps. What happens when the Bobcats run into a good defense?

Check my memory. AT TT's best 2011 (games vs Ball St, Central and BGSU come to mind), he carried the team to several come from behind victories; several losses without his Hercules heroics. Sure, statistically it is possible to win with a below average MAC QB but that is not the norm, as pointed out by posters showing MAC champions and the prowess of their QB's.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 7:57:56 PM

LC--I continue to disagree about the quality of the coaching (play-calling, sets, strategy) and quarterbacking.

They are important and for almost all of Solich's tenure the former has been mediocre and the latter only intermittently good.

Depending too much on overall talent without stars emerging--even in the MAC, that's not a recipe for a championship.

Everyone touts our receivers and this and that about our team. But make the case for me that we have more than one guy who has seriously played (shown it, proven it) such that he's clearly All-MAC caliber. Not for a few games--for the whole season.

For Poling, that can be done. For every other player, I'm not yet buying.

Awfully tough to win a MACC without a lot of stars and not much from the coaching side...apparently.

L.C.
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RE: Leavening...disagree if you will

Posted: 8/15/2016 8:25:08 PM

giacomo wrote:

When we start playing and are about half way through the season, you'll know how good we are. The wailing and gnashing of teeth is pointless right now.

I agree. That's why I've mostly been staying out of it. I've posted my opinion, and others are free to agree or disagree, but I'm not going to get into an argument about it. If the team is as good as I expect, that will become apparent fairly quickly. If they aren't, that will become apparent quickly, too.

I've posted a bit more than I have been posting because some of my concerns seem to have satisfactory answers. One, the CB position, has yet to be answered.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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