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Topic: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Topic: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

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L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,067

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Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/5/2015 5:02:14 PM

Last year the best two teams in the MAC were NIU and Toledo, and both lose a lot of players, so they will most likely not be as good in 2015 as they were in 2014. WMU was the third best team, and they lose quite a few players, so they may be about the same, or a little worse. Meanwhile BG, Ohio, U.Mass, and Ball State return almost everyone, so all four will improve. The result should be 7 teams that are very competitive. In the end it may be the schedule that makes or breaks who wins the MAC in 2015, so let's take a look at those schedules.

BG - they return 20 starters, plus they get their 2013 QB back, so they should be improved quite a lot. Last year their defense was surprisingly bad, dropping from by far the best in the MAC to one of the worst in the MAC. As a result, they replaced the defensive coordinator, which may help. In 2015, they play 5 of the 6 other top teams, with Ohio, U.Mass and Toledo at home, plus Ball State and WMU on the road. The fact that both Ohio and U.Mass are at home give them an edge in tiebreakers.

Ohio - returns 18 starters, so they will also be improved a lot from a rebuilding year. They play four of the other six top teams, playing Ball State and WMU at home, and NIU and BG on the road.

U.Mass - They return 20 starters from a team that was better than many expected last year, so they should continue to improve. They play the easiest schedule of any of the top teams, facing only 3 top foes, playing at BG and Ball State, and playing Toledo at home.

Ball State - Like Ohio they had a rebuilding year last year, and they return 20 players, so they should improve and be in the thick of things. Unfortunately they play the worst schedule in the MAC, playing all 6 of the other top teams. They play at Ohio, WMU, and NIU, plus home games against BG, U.Mass, and Toledo.

NIU - returns only 13 starters from a year ago, so they will likely not be quite as good. They have a favorable MAC schedule, however, so that will help. They play at home against Ohio, WMU and Ball State, and have only Toledo on the road.

Toledo - also returns only 13 starters, so should also take a step back. They play at BG, U.Mass, and Ball State, with home games against WMU and NIU.

WMU - returns 15 starters, so they most likely will be about the same as a year ago. They do have a lot of "3-star" recruits that they could plug in, so they may improve, but it's hard to know. They play at Ohio, NIU, and Toledo, with BG and Ball State at home.

Putting this in a table form, each team's games against top foes are listed as Home, Away, and then in parenthesis the ones in their own division (home, away). [I miss the old post interface, where I could make columns line up by switching to a non-proportional font]:

Favorable Schedules (only 3 total games, or only 1 road game):
U.Mass - 1, 2 (0,1)
NIU - 3, 1 (2,1)

Moderate Schedules (two road games against top teams):
BG - 3, 2 (2,0)
Ohio - 2, 2 (0,1)

Unfavorable Schedules (three road games against top teams):
Ball St - 3, 3 (1,2)
Toledo - 2, 3 (2,1)
WMU - 2, 3 (1,2)

The other teams will of course pull a few upsets, and mess things up a bit. Here are the returning starters by team:
CMU - 10, and a new coach, so they will be significantly worse
Buffalo - 10, ditto
Akron - 11, so they will most likely be significantly worse
EMU - 13, and they weren't good to start with
Miami - 13
Kent - 19, so they should improve, but I can't see them being competitive

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Cats-22
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Member Since: 9/30/2006
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RE: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/5/2015 6:46:01 PM

LC, I appreciate the work. What I would appreciate more, though, is if you could just tell us that Ohio will win the MAC Championship in 2015.

Kind of a bummer that BG seems set to have an up year next year simultaneously with Ohio's. Good that they face more of the top MAC teams, though. Also a potential positive -- BG has a bit of a murderer's row in the OOC. Tennessee, Maryland, Memphis, Purdue. The first three were in the Sagarin top 50 last season. So BG could go 0-4 out of the gate. Purdue is the only team where I'd imagine BGSU might be favored (and if that game had been held last season, Purdue would have been favored at home by a TD or more). Rallying after dropping that many games isn't impossible but it's not easy.

Last Edited: 4/5/2015 6:51:49 PM by Cats-22

Turney13
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Member Since: 7/27/2010
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RE: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/10/2015 2:10:57 PM

LC great analysis - I hope you use that talent with picking stocks too.

Just giving the eyeball test from last year

Central Michigan loss was painful - out coached - they knew we couldn't throw the ball and made it a very long day.

Bowling Green loss wasn't fun either. They beat us good, but I wasn't overly impressed with their play.

Western Michigan loss I thought we looked like we didn't belong on the same field. The scoreboard was similar to our other losses, but to me they were bigger, stronger and faster.

Northern Illinois loss was a heartbreaker, but we looked like we belonged. Probably the most heart we showed all season. But their players weren't superior to us.

My guess is the favorites going into next year will be Western Michigan vs Bowling Green.

lets hope that doesn't happen.

Turney Duff
Twitter: @turneyduff

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
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RE: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/10/2015 5:17:48 PM

Turney13 wrote:

...
Central Michigan loss was painful - out coached - they knew we couldn't throw the ball and made it a very long day.
...

To me that game was the exact reverse. They knew we couldn't run the ball, so they stayed in a nickle, and made sure we couldn't pass. That left Ohio a choice of trying to run the ball, which wasn't working, or throwing into double coverage, which wasn't likely to work. Ohio tried it both ways, running 23 times for 89 yards, and going 7-21 passing for 98 yards, so neither worked. Ohio "should" have been able to gash the nickle for 5-6 yards a carry on the ground, and force them to back out of the nickle, but it didn't happen.

Whichever way you look at it, it was ugly. I hope it is a long time before another game like that, and that if it does happen, the foe is a lot better than CMU.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Oxnard, CA
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RE: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/12/2015 1:27:52 AM

This analysis lacks thoughts on the caliber of the players returning for each side. And the quality of each team's new players for the coming season.

I appreciate that info takes some work to assemble but it would make this discussion much more pointed.

Four of UMass's six All-MAC guys were juniors (3 1st team, 1 2nd), two were seniors.

Last Edited: 4/12/2015 1:34:40 AM by Monroe Slavin

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/12/2015 2:35:36 PM

CMU 3 All-MAC underclassmen, 4 were seniors

'kron 2 underclass, 1 senior

redhawk, 0 under, 4 senior

NIU 5 under, 4 senior

Last Edited: 4/12/2015 2:38:46 PM by Monroe Slavin

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,067

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RE: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/12/2015 4:51:47 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Good point, Monroe, and that's a way I haven't looked at things. Instead of looking at the particular players coming back, I've always focused on players lost. Instead of using "All-MAC", I've used a parallel data set, players drafted, players signing UFA contracts, and players getting tryouts. Since the draft isn't until April 30-May 2, I don't have that data yet.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Bcat2
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Member Since: 7/6/2010
Post Count: 4,295

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RE: Contenders for the MAC Championship, 2015

Posted: 4/12/2015 5:09:47 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

CMU 3 All-MAC underclassmen, 4 were seniors

'kron 2 underclass, 1 senior

redhawk, 0 under, 4 senior

NIU 5 under, 4 senior

Any and all information is good. You have just peeled one layer of the onion. It helps, keep peeling. Thanks.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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