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Topic: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Topic: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

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OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,016

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Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 1:36:44 AM

The following web sites shows these spreads. I find the Marshall-NIU ten point spread in favor of the Herd surprising, as well as the very small spread in favor of BG against new FBS member South Alabama. There are some other puzzlers as well, like Georgia Tech as 7 point favorite over Mississippi State and Notre Dame a 7 point favorite over LSU. And, I guess Barry Alvarez is a very good coach with UW a 6.5 point favorite over Auburn. Your reaction?

http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football-bowls/odds-l.../

Biggest Spreads

Stanford vs. Maryland (N) -14
Utah State vs. TX El Paso (N) -10.5
Marshall vs. N Illinois (N) -10
Oregon vs. Florida St (N) -9.5
Alabama vs. Ohio State (N) -9
Arizona St vs. Duke (N) -7.5
Miss State vs. GA Tech (N) -7
LSU vs. Notre Dame (N) -7
Florida vs. E Carolina (N) -7
Auburn vs. Wisconsin (N) -6.5

Smallest Spreads

LA Lafayette vs. Nevada (N) -1
W Michigan vs. Air Force (N) -1
Memphis vs. BYU (N) -1
Rice vs. Fresno St (N) -1.5
San Diego St vs. Navy -2
Central FL vs. NC State (N) -2
Boston Col vs. Penn State (N) -2.5
S Alabama vs. Bowling Grn (N) -2.5

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 4:10:27 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Vegas is not picking winners more than driving bets at a profitable margin.

Monroe Slavin
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Location: Oxnard, CA
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 10:15:27 AM

What's the point, BIlly? They are still measuring relative strength in some way.

MAC, to me (I know...your favorite standard) was weak this year. Let's see how MAC does bowling.

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UpSan Bobcat
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Location: Upper Sandusky, OH
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 10:52:58 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

What's the point, BIlly? They are still measuring relative strength in some way.

To a degree. The objective is to get the same amount of dollars on each side so they profit either way. Obviously, ability of a team has a lot to do with setting a line, but betting trends probably mean more.

Jeff McKinney
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 11:44:37 AM

Isn't ironic that the two national semifinal games are among the largest pointspreads?

cc-cat
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Location: matthews, NC
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 2:52:58 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

Vegas is not picking winners more than driving bets at a profitable margin.

They are identifying who should win and by how much. The point of the spread is to then even out the betting dollars. But they are clearing saying LSU should win by 7 points and Alabama should win by 9.

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 5:18:28 PM

cc-cat wrote:

Not exactly. What they are saying is that as many people will bet on Ohio State with 9 points as will bet on Alabama -9 points. So long as the money on both sides is even, they make money, which is all they care about.

Last Edited: 12/13/2014 9:47:12 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

cc-cat
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Location: matthews, NC
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 7:15:52 PM

L.C. wrote:

cc-cat wrote:

Not exactly. What they are saying is that as many people will bet on Ohio with 9 points as will bet on Alabama -9 points. So long as the money on both sides is even, they make money, which is all they care about.

Yes, but if you have spent anytime betting the spread it is F__ing frustrating they are so exact at setting the spread. lol. The challenge is to find the game(s) they misread - which is rare.

BillyTheCat
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/12/2014 11:41:16 PM

L.C. wrote:

cc-cat wrote:

Absolutely amazing how some fail to understand this concept!!!! Vegas cares not who wins, they care about where the money lays, they will always make money off the juice, and the line will reflect a point that the public sees as a way to make money. And money only sets and moves the line.

UpSan Bobcat
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Location: Upper Sandusky, OH
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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/13/2014 12:47:16 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

L.C. wrote:

cc-cat wrote:

Right, though they do try to be proactive and adjust the line in advance of betting if something changes (like an injury) that might effect the way people bet.

L.C.
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Location: United States
Post Count: 10,067

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RE: Strange Lines on Some Bowls

Posted: 12/13/2014 10:07:58 AM

In a sense, it's like the stock market. The stock market price for a company reflects all of the known information about a company, and the consensus of all possible investors as to it's future value. Those that think it's overvalued sell, while those that think it is undervalued buy.

Similarly, the line on a football game reflects all information known about a game, and reflects the consensus of who is likely to win, and by how much. Those that think Team A will win by more than the line bet on Team A. Those that think Team B will win by more (or lose by less) bet on B. If more money comes in on one side than the other, the line moves to try to even out the betting.

Do lines tend to be close to the actual result? Of course, because they reflect all known information. Anything you know, other people know, and thus that information is reflected in the line.

In the end, Vegas doesn't care who wins. All they care about is that the money on one side is roughly the same as the money on the other side. Since they keep a share of each bet, that is their profit, and if the bets on both sides are equal they make the same regardless of which side wins. The only possible way for them to lose is if they take more bets on one side than the other, and that side wins.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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