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Topic: RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Topic: RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

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The Situation
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Location: Columbus, OH
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/14/2014 11:01:42 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

situation--how many of your statistical irrelevancies mean that we win the MAC title?

After all I have had to say in this thread, among others, this is the response you come up with Monroe??? I imagine the glow of someone else's text on your computer monitor is the closest thing you'll get to a bright idea.

When you make an argument in the form of "We haven't done 'example A' between years 'X' and 'Z', therfore 'Conclusion B'".... data between years X and Z can be quite relevant. That is why the Lion's share of my evidence is concentrated between those years, the very years you reference the non presence of a MAC Championship. I have addressed your arguments. And I have dismissed them beyond a reasonable doubt.

I have intellectually dismantled your conclusions Monroe, time and time again. Any prevailing sentiment that Frank Solich is somehow inadequate or ill-equiped to proceed as OHIO's head coach is misguided, rooted in ignorance and emotion.

I need a break from your boundless stupidity Monroe. Don't expect me to acknowledge your presence for some time to come.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/15/2014 12:34:10 PM

You need to work on your self-righteousness and your incomprehensibility.

I'm giving you to everyone I know as a holiday gift. They'll love the warmth.

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

DesignspiritUSA.com
The Pets On The Go Collection of pet gear travel bags
The Holiday Tote Bigg Bagg Collection--over-sized, reversible, extra pockets; now love carrying packages as much as you love shopping!

Alan Swank
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/15/2014 1:19:13 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

You need to work on your self-righteousness and your incomprehensibility.

I'm giving you to everyone I know as a holiday gift. They'll love the warmth.

No need to send that "gift" to me Monroe. Your humor, passion and devotion to detail is good enough for me. Keep it coming, buddy!

L.C.
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/15/2014 3:53:49 PM

I took a quick look at MAC East Depth Charts. Here is what the teams will lose next year:
BG - 3 starters, 1 2d string
Mass - 3 starters, 1 second string (but one loss is their QB)
Kent - 5 starters, 1 second string
Ohio - 5 starters, 2 second string
Miami - 9 starters, 2 second string
Akron - 10 starters, 10 second string
Buffalo - 12 starters, 4 second string

Looking 2 years out, the teams will lose:
Kent - 9 starters, 3 second string
BG - 12 starters, 4 second string
Ohio - 12 starters, 7 second string
Miami - 14 starters, 3 second string
Mass - 14 starters, 9 second string
Buffalo - 20 starters, 10 second string
Akron - 22 starters, 16 second string

Conclusion: For next year, BG will be favored again, with Ohio and Mass picked for second and third place. Kent will be better, but they are too far back to go far. Akron and Buffalo will be worse.

For 2016, Kent will probably be a top half team. Since Mass will be gone from the conference, it will be Ohio and BG fighting for the top, with Kent and Miami right behind. His transfer strategy will come back to bite Bowden as he has to replace the entire team in only 2 years, and Buffalo also faces some major rebuilding.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Pataskala
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/15/2014 9:43:45 PM

L.C. wrote:

Since UMass loses their starting QB, Ohio should be above UMass next year. The rest of the team has thrown only two passes this year, and one was thrown by a receiver.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Victory
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/15/2014 10:12:02 PM

It looks like the East will improve next year. I'd like to think that it could hardly get any worse.

PhiTau74
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Location: Columbia, SC
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/15/2014 10:52:28 PM

I guess they don't even need to play next year since everyone already knows how they will finish. You guys should all be in Las Vegas and be multi millionaires.

D.A.
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/16/2014 7:29:55 PM

Pataskala wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Since UMass loses their starting QB, Ohio should be above UMass next year. The rest of the team has thrown only two passes this year, and one was thrown by a receiver.

Frohnapfel is actually back next year. He graduated in three years from Marshall and redshirted one year there, so next year is his fifth year.

The Few, The Proud, The Bobcats!

And for the record, I hate tOSU, and Ricordati and Torgerson are DB's.

"This isn't just another walkover from the MAC." Kirk Herbstreit, another DB, on College Football Gameday

Paul Graham
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/17/2014 3:31:38 PM

The Situation wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

situation--how many of your statistical irrelevancies mean that we win the MAC title?

I have intellectually dismantled your conclusions Monroe, time and time again. Any prevailing sentiment that Frank Solich is somehow inadequate or ill-equiped to proceed as OHIO's head coach is misguided, rooted in ignorance and emotion.

Did you just take a stats class or just learn to program in R or something? You need to calm down a little.

Our football program is not in great shape right now. Anyone can see that. Here are a couple of quick facts...

- We have not won the East since 2011. In fact, we really haven't been close to winning it since 2011. Albeit, we may come "close" this year given that the East is so awful. But as of today our odds of winning the MAC East are quite low even considering it may be the worst its been in 20 years.

- The only other decent and consistent MAC East football program is BG, and we have not beaten BG since 2011 and the average score of our three consecutive losses is 24 points. That's three TD's and a FG for those counting at home. Based on those performances, any reasonable person would draw the conclusion that BG is running a better program than us over the course of the last few years.

- Post Brazill and Keller (PBK for short), our performance against the upper-tier of the MAC has been nothing short of disastrous. This includes butt kickings by BG, CMU and WMU this season...stompings by Buffalo, BG and Kent last year...and big losses to BG, Kent and Ball State in 2012. I define the "upper-tier" as the top 5 best MAC records. For instance this year (so far) it would be NIU, Toledo, WMU, CMU and BG.

- Expanding on the previous point, using the "upper tier" definition, we are 0-9 vs the upper-tier PBK. The average loss of those games is 22.7 points/game over a three year stretch.

IMO, what the above data shows is PBK we are no longer a top-tier MAC team. We are somewhat consistent in our mediocrity but haven't been near the top 5. Given my knowledge of the team and recruiting I suspect this to be true next season as well barring a dramatic improvement in offensive production.

Up until 2011, I was more than satisfied with our football program and I'm sure Monroe feels the same. Since then its been a yearly decline, even the W-L record with all its "padding" against weak opponents shows that to be the case.

So when you attempt to "dismantle" our argument that the program is in decline, I suggest you used data PBK...as (for me at least) that's all that matters.

Last Edited: 11/17/2014 3:34:24 PM by Paul Graham

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/17/2014 6:37:25 PM

Revision:

Re-reading your post it's certainly possible I mis-interpreted where your disagreement was. If the "calm down" was intended to address the number of "stats" related posts I've made lately, so be it. I interpreted your "calm down" as an amplification of Swank's passive-aggressive post. If there was a mis-communication, the five day delay from my original post is what threw me off. Regardless, I'll leave my response intact.

------------------

Paul Graham wrote:

Did you just take a stats class or just learn to program in R or something? You need to calm down a little.

Bro turn down the volume on your computer. If there's tone or inflection to my voice in your mind's eye, you put it there.

BTW I graduated in 2012, your poke at me is a little outdated. And I assure you, they don't cover sports history in an engineering classroom. (I wish they did)

I am aggressive towards Monroe's posts (maybe not to the extent that you might be imagining on your side of the keyboard). The animosity builds over the years. I forgive. But I don't have Alzheimer's. Don't expect me to forget.

I put a concerted effort into my public and private endeavors. And when I spend the time to develop an articulate response to a person's post, I expect a commensurate response in return. Not some elementary metal dribble. When, through iteration, that person has communicated to me they are unwilling or flat out incapable of delivering a commensurate response (for whatever reason), I handle them how I see fit.

The trash talk is part is all part of the game. But if you doubt that I have intellectually dismantled Monroe's posts, consider this:

On the first page of this thread, as I explained, Monroe alluded to Frank somehow being inadequate because of his record against teams with winning records. He literally re-posted the numbers I provided as an answer to BTC's question.

I then exposed his allusion by tabulating each MAC team's record against teams with winning records over the same period. OHIO was only behind NIU over that period. The results would lead most functionally literate human beings to the conclusion that Monroe's allusion was false.

Did I not engage the intellect by taking the argument into pieces? Was the allusion not intellectually dismantled?

Furthermore, did Monroe not reinforce my position on him as a poster by his response?

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Y'know what else is relative? Most of the teams on that list stink.

Monroe is a carnival game with no prize.

...

Paul Graham wrote:

- Post Brazill and Keller (PBK for short), our performance against the upper-tier of the MAC has been nothing short of disastrous. This includes butt kickings by BG, CMU and WMU this season...stompings by Buffalo, BG and Kent last year...and big losses to BG, Kent and Ball State in 2012. I define the "upper-tier" as the top 5 best MAC records. For instance this year (so far) it would be NIU, Toledo, WMU, CMU and BG.

- Expanding on the previous point, using the "upper tier" definition, we are 0-9 vs the upper-tier PBK. The average loss of those games is 22.7 points/game over a three year stretch.

IMO, what the above data shows is PBK we are no longer a top-tier MAC team.

To address your post about the state of the program. I see anomaly. I see the perfect storm.

I see a quarterback who became a record holder, a star, and then inexplicably disappeared, refused to run. I see an old school coach who built a career on trusting to the people around him to do the job that is asked of them. And I see results on the field by that quarterback that may have just blindsided Frank's conventional wisdom.

If you want to push the data out of the 2012 and 2013, I'm still not breaking a sweat. I see the starting quarterback out with an injury for all but 2 and a half quarters of the conference losses (all 2 and half quarters on the road). I see a former walk-on playing QB and I see the more highly touted recruit riding the pine because of an off the field bone head move (purely speculation, but one can imagine how a bonehead move by a backup QB can put one in the doghouse of an old school coach for some time).

Is the OHIO program on the decline?

Can we look outside of OHIO for answers?

Just read the K-State Bill Synder story.

http://www.bobcatattack.com/messageboard/topic.asp?ForumP...

Bill Synder retired after back to back losing seasons.

Without Bill though, the new head coach stumbled through a pair of his own losing seasons.

Can you see the image I'm trying to paint? I'm staking a position that yourself and like minded individuals are similar to the K-State fan boys that put the pressure on Bill Synder to retire.

And I believe that Frank Solich, on a relative scale, can be the Bill Synder that is coaching the #12 KSU Wildcats right now.

BTW, a critical part of the Bill Synder story: He stuck with his offensive coordinators through thick and thin over his career. So knock Albin all you want, but that's how coaches cut from the cloth of Bill Synder and Frank Solich do business. And those men, and their method, are time tested and Hall of Fame approved.

Last Edited: 11/17/2014 8:40:07 PM by The Situation

TheBobcatBandit
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite? (NT)

Posted: 11/17/2014 10:51:00 PM

Last Edited: 11/17/2014 10:53:09 PM by TheBobcatBandit

TheBobcatBandit
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/17/2014 10:52:49 PM

The Situation wrote:

+1 These next couple years are going to be special. Franks got this, we have a lot of young talent returning and I see us being atop the MAC East

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 12:02:07 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

You need to work on your self-righteousness and your incomprehensibility.

I'm giving you to everyone I know as a holiday gift. They'll love the warmth.

situation...graduated in 2012 and pretty much knows it all.

Try having a sense of humor and lighten up. Part of the fun here is that you get mix it up a bit with all different types. Without that good-spirited repartee (or attempt at same, anyway) this place is one-note dullsville. dulldulldull

Just because you think I'm an arse doesn't mean that you are entirely correct and that I'm not correct occasionally.

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 8:22:20 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

situation...graduated in 2012 and pretty much knows it all.

Try having a sense of humor and lighten up.

"Know-it-all", a pejorative term void of creativity.

Have a sense of humor. Lighten up Monroe. I didn't realize this was the all fun zone.

As if telling anyone to "have a sense of humor" or "lighten up" actually gives the accused a fair chance to defend themselves... Those comments are in the same vein as accusing someone of "being in denial". LOL

bshot44
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 10:27:57 AM

CAAAAAAAAAAT FIIIIIIIIIIGHT!!!!!!!!!

I love it.

This is a great debate.

Is Frank the guy who can continue to raise the level of success of this program or has he taken us as far as he can?

I can see both points of view.

On one hand, it is SUPREMELY frustrating to think he's been here for a decade and we have ZERO MAC titles to show for it. Even Miami has accidently stumbled into one and look where they've been the last couple years.

But, he has also taken us to more bowl games than any coach prior (then again, you have to take the era into consideration....we now live in an era where 6-6 MAC teams make bowl games....so.....)

On the other hand, what is the better option? Roll the dice on someone else and just hope you hit a homerun. That's not the easiest thing to do. (Brian Knorr, anyone?)

Sometimes the grass isn't greener on the other side.

Would you rather run Frank out (which I don't think Ohio will EVER do...he'll leave on his own terms when he's ready...he's probably earned that).....and continue to win 6-to-10 games a year and go to bowls........or take a shot on a new up-and-comer or another re-tread in hopes to raise the bar....or dare I say, fall back into the depths of obscurity?

This football program is ions from where it was 10 years ago.....and that's because of Frank.

But I will admit, it's frustrating to see what NIU does and wonder why we can't get to that level if we have a coach who "can compete with the power conferences"

Back to your debate!

Last Edited: 11/18/2014 10:29:01 AM by bshot44

Paul Graham
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 3:01:10 PM

The Situation wrote:

You responded to my data-driven post with a bunch of emotion, speculation, excuses and discussion of a completely different coach and team. Isn't this exactly the crime you accused Monroe of?

Of course, the reason you responded the way you did is that the results on the field for the past three years cannot be spun. We are no longer a top-tier MAC football team and that much is clear to any observer.

Whether Frank & Co. lost control (or is it "the respect"?) of his team or the players took advantage of a trusting old coach is something we probably will never know. I like to focus on facts and results...actually thats wrong. I like to focus on GOOD FOOTBALL. I enjoy watching the Bobcats when they play GOOD FOOTBALL and compete at a relatively high level. When my old man and I left Detroit in 2011 after a devastating loss I didn't feel down at all. We lost to a good team, played hard and things just didn't work out.

When will this team be fun to watch again? Thats what I care about. When will they be COMPETITIVE with top-tier MAC teams?

Hopefully its tonight.

OhioCatFan
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 3:25:49 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

. . .

When will this team be fun to watch again? Thats what I care about. When will they be COMPETITIVE with top-tier MAC teams?

Hopefully its tonight.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 4:11:14 PM

Paul Graham wrote:

Are you kidding me Paul? I did this dance with Monroe a couple threads ago. You can't use a data set to develop a theory and then use the same data set to confirm the theory. You didn't present a data driven post. You presented a straw man.

My conclusions are based on Frank Solich's life work. I look to Bill Snyder for established precedent of a 60+ year old coach remaining competitive compared to his younger self.

I mean come on Paul, the mind doesn't quit like the body. There's a reason why a guy like Stephen Hawking remains a hot commodity.

All this aside. Go Bobcats. The NIU game tonight has all the potential as of this moment to be a turning point for the season and the future.

Casper71
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 4:26:12 PM

Paul, Monroe and Casper...three peas in the pod who do NOT like where this program has gone since 2011. Everyone else on this board: look, we aren't 1-10 anymore!

Yuk...

Tonight could turn it around but if the big NIU running back is way over 100 yards, we are in deep doo doo again and this will be another 3-TD loss!

I repeat again I love these Bobcats and I hope I am wrong but my eyes are telling my brain otherwise!

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 4:41:30 PM

The Situation wrote:

Paul Graham wrote:

Tough to have a discussion with a guy who's always right, won't admit anyone who disagrees could be giving insight, and who demands that you play by his rules and judgments even if those rules and judgments change or don't necessarily make sense.

I'm amazed that someone out of school for 2+ years thinks he knows so much. I don't want to get into a battle of smarts and experience (that's pointless) but you might consider that those of us who've seen more than you could have a leg to stand on.

You seem to learn by running your mouth. I learn more by keeping mine shut most of the time.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 4:43:32 PM

bshot44--good post. The only thing I don't like is the 'don't change 'cause it could be worse' thought. In any enterprise, that's a bad way to go. If change is needed, it is needed pretty much totally irrespective of what or who to change to.

Bcat2
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 5:13:32 PM

Casper71 wrote:

perimeterpost helped me understand that beating NIU is not the standard for good. Since losing to Ohio in 09 the only MAC team to beat NIU in the regular season is CMU. If a 5-5 MAC team beats NIU tonight there needs to be some happy Bobcat fans. NIU is the standard for very, very good. I just hope that if things go NIU's way tonight the Ohio seniors don't hear that they suck because they did not beat NIU.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Paul Graham
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 5:47:32 PM

The Situation wrote:

Paul Graham wrote:

My statements, "Ohio is not a top-tier MAC team PBK" and "Ohio has not been competitive with top-five MAC teams PBK" are not theories or hypothesis. They are logical statements which are provably true...assuming we formally define a few of the terms.

If that constitutes a straw man, then I assume that you agree with those prior statements and sign off on their correctness? If so, feel free to put that in writing. I know my good friends Casper and Monroe would love to read it.

Last Edited: 11/18/2014 5:49:54 PM by Paul Graham

Paul Graham
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 5:53:22 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

The Situation wrote:

Paul Graham wrote:

Its ok Monroe. We've all been in our early-mid 20's before.

I've been posting on BA and its previous incarnations since I was in 7'th grade and I'm now 32. Jeff can attest to how many times I've made an a$$ of myself here.

JSF
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/18/2014 5:58:32 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

You seem to learn by running your mouth. I learn more by keeping mine shut most of the time.

(insert Futurama "Not sure if..." meme)

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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