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Topic: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Topic: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

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The Situation
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OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 2:54:33 PM

A phoenix is a mythological bird that dies by fire, only to be reborn in the ashes of its predecessor.

Although a bobcat is a real creature, the metaphor may still be appropriate for this football team.

Currently the Bobcats are 0-4 against teams with winning records (BG, WMU, CMU, and Marshall). With the fifth (and perhaps final) game against a team with a winning record coming up against NIU on Tuesday, this OHIO team may be ready to learn their final lesson before taking flight next season.

There have only been two (2) occurrences at OHIO when a Frank Solich coached team went win-less against teams with winning records. In 2005, OHIO went 0-7 against teams with winning records. In 2008, OHIO went 0-5 against teams with winning records. Both occurrences were followed up the next season with a division championship and a MAC title game appearance.

This trend isn't limited to OHIO. Of the data I've reviewed since 2005, five other divisional champions stick out:

- Miami 0-5 v Winning Teams (WTs) 2006; MAC East Champion 2007
- Buffalo 0-4 v WTs 2007; MAC Champion 2008
- NIU 0-5 v WTs 2009; MAC West Champion 2010
- Miami 0-8 v WTs 2009; MAC Champion 2010
- BG 1-5 v WTs 2012; MAC Champion 2013

We might add another team to this list later this year:
- WMU 0-6 v WTs 2013;

A number of MAC teams will go win-less against teams with a winning record each year. But since 2006, six (6) of the last 16 MAC division champions have come from the pool of the win-less. And no active MAC coach has flipped that switch more times than Frank Solich.

Last Edited: 11/12/2014 2:59:27 PM by The Situation

Alan Swank
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 4:02:56 PM

Last Edited: 11/12/2014 4:08:43 PM by Alan Swank

GoCats105
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 4:07:41 PM

That's why the MAC is one of the hardest conferences to predict a winner. A terrible team the previous year can come from nowhere and win the whole damn thing.

L.C.
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 7:33:55 PM

Virtually all of Ohio's starters and backups will return, but I looked at BG's depth chart, and the same is true of them, and for U.Mass as well. I would guess that those three schools will be the favorites next year.

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 8:26:03 PM

So, you're saying that the almost certainty that the first offensive play vs. NIU will be a Robbie Walker jet sweep and that we'll induce groans on third down (both sides of the ball) is not a concern?

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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 8:57:29 PM

The Situation wrote:

Great post!! I hope you're right.

BillyTheCat
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 10:06:46 PM

The Situation wrote:

Out of curiosity, what is Franks record v teams with a winning recd while at OHiO?

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 10:18:11 PM

L.C. wrote:

I forgotted about BG's ace qb (named Johnson, I think) who's been out all year. His return makes them the decided favorite. Also, I'll be curious to see what redhawk looks like in a week or so. I suspect they'll play a role, also.

LoganElm_grad09
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 10:26:57 PM

The Situation wrote:

And no active MAC coach has flipped that switch more times than Frank Solich.

On the other hand, no team has went longer without a MAC Title than Ohio. That statistical gem has been in place since 1968.

Pataskala
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/12/2014 10:39:49 PM

I think BG will be the favorite in most predictions, although Ohio should get some. BG has two experienced QBs, their top two rushers and their top four receivers coming back. That's a heckuvan arsenal. Plus they lose only one OL to graduation. If they solve their defensive issues, they will be formidable next year.

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TheBobcatBandit
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 12:08:22 AM

Look out for UMass too. They have lost all their games except one this year by a touchdown or less. They have really impressed me.

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 8:03:21 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Out of curiosity, what is Franks record v teams with a winning recd while at OHiO?

Record vs Winning Teams:

2014: OHIO 0-4
2013: OHIO 2-4
2012: OHIO 2-3
2011: OHIO 3-2
2010: OHIO 2-3
2009: OHIO 3-4
2008: OHIO 0-5
2007: OHIO 1-1
2006: OHIO 2-4
2005: OHIO 0-7

W/L: 15-37 (15 out of 52; 28.8%)

At first glance, his record looks poor. Take out his first season and it's a bit better. But remember, two (2) WVWTs put a team in the top half of FBS in a given year. A WVWT is not an easy accomplishment, especially for a MAC team.

Fun Fact:

Since 2005, this incomplete season excluded, nine (9) MAC football teams (out of ~108+) have had a winning record against teams with winning records:

- NIU (4)
- OHIO (1) (the 2011 team)
- CMU (1)
- KENT (1)
- Toledo (1)
- Ball State (1)

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JSF
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 11:23:13 AM

I always thought Phoenix would make a good mascot.

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The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 11:26:30 AM

JSF wrote:

I always thought Phoenix would make a good mascot.

Me too. I don't feel Elon does the name a justice.

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 11:48:48 AM

Out of curiosity I cross referenced OPPA++ rankings for every season Solich has been at OHIO (this incomplete season excluded).

OHIO has lost three (3) MAC Championship games under Frank Solich:

- 2006 against CMU [rated #12 MAC team since '05]
- 2009 against CMU [rated #4 MAC team since '05]
- 2011 against NIU [rated #1 MAC team since '05]

The 2011 OHIO team appears to have been the best under Frank Solich by seemingly any metric (Rated #10). And that loss to NIU, if nothing else, might have just been unfortunate timing.

The 2012 NIU team that made the Orange Bowl was rated #5 over that period; which to me helps explain how Kent (rated #8) was able to keep the game so close.

Relative OPPA++ scores of MAC Champions Since 2005:

2005: Akron #33
2006: CMU #12
2007: CMU #36
2008: Buffalo #17
2009: CMU #4
2010: Miami #24
2011: NIU #1
2012: NIU #5
2013: BG #13

Last Edited: 11/13/2014 12:12:46 PM by The Situation

oldkatz
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 12:48:58 PM

The Situation wrote:

JSF wrote:

I always thought Phoenix would make a good mascot.

Me too. I don't feel Elon does the name a justice.

Best friend's son attended Elon. Thought their mascot should be the Gators.

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 2:14:19 PM

JSF wrote:

I always thought Phoenix would make a good mascot.

I wonder if people on the University of Phoenix chat board think Ohio would be a good nickname.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 7:29:36 PM

The Situation wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Out of curiosity, what is Franks record v teams with a winning recd while at OHiO?

Last Edited: 11/13/2014 7:30:27 PM by Monroe Slavin

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/13/2014 8:52:34 PM

Monroe I think it's safe to assume you were alluding to Frank somehow being an inadequate head coach because of his record against teams with winning records at OHIO. Alas, the universe is relative and those numbers are worthless without comparison.

With this in mind, how did the other MAC teams do against teams with winning records since 2005? (WPVWT = Win % vs Winning Teams)

OHIO was 2nd in WPWVT between 2005 and 2013. (I exclude 2014 because this season is incomplete).

W/L --- WPVWT --- TEAM
19-28 ---- 40.4% ---- NIU
15-33 ---- 31.3% ---- OHIO*
14-32 ---- 30.4% ---- TOLEDO
16-38 ---- 29.6% ---- CMU
13-39 ---- 25.0% ---- BALL STATE
10-41 ---- 19.6% ---- BGSU
8-38 ---- 17.4% ---- KENT
4-48 ---- 11.9% ---- TEMPLE
5-37 ---- 11.9% ---- WMU
6-45 ---- 11.8% ---- MIAMI
5-47 ---- 9.6% ---- EMU
4-46 ---- 8.0% ---- AKRON
3-45 ---- 6.3% ---- BUFFALO

*(Before the edit, I had OHIO 4th. They were actually 2nd. I accidently accounted for their 2014 record of which I excluded everyone elses.)

But Monroe, remember, Frank was 0-7 against winning teams his first year. If we exclude that 2005 season, the Frank Solich story gets even better:

W/L --- WPVWT --- TEAM
15-24 ---- 38.5% ---- NIU
15-26 ---- 36.3% ---- OHIO
11-29 ---- 27.5% ---- TOLEDO
13-35 ---- 27.1% ---- CMU
10-33 ---- 23.3% ---- BALL STATE
9-36 ---- 20.0% ---- BGSU
8-32 ---- 20.0% ---- KENT
5-41 ---- 10.9% ---- MIAMI
4-38 ---- 9.5% ---- TEMPLE
3-34 ---- 8.1% ---- WMU
3-39 ---- 7.1% ---- BUFFALO
3-42 ---- 6.7% ---- EMU
1-43 ---- 2.3% ---- AKRON

Between 2006 and 2013, OHIO is 2nd again in the MAC in wins against teams with winning records. If OHIO holds onto that second half 20 point lead against NIU in the MACC, OHIO is #1. Frank hasn't won the elusive MAC Championship yet. But let's also not forget that Frank lost the 2009 and 2011 MAC Championships to the #1 and #2 rated MAC teams between the years 2006 and 2013. (Rating based on OPPA++ score, ranked vs all MAC team End of Season OPPA++ scores during that time period).

You're a child Monroe, in a man's body, with enough disposable income to afford your irrational thoughts. I think they made a movie about you; but thank God it wasn't Moneyball.

Last Edited: 11/13/2014 9:53:25 PM by The Situation

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/14/2014 1:06:13 AM

You are a very strange person. I like that.

Y'know what else is relative? Most of the teams on that list stink.

Y'know what's not relative? 10 years of the same staff and no MAC title.

I wonder how many coaches in MAC in last 25 years have had tenures that long with no title.

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/14/2014 7:04:11 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Y'know what else is relative? Most of the teams on that list stink.

Exactly my point. OHIO has been significantly ahead of most of those teams during Frank Solich's tenure.

If what NIU and OHIO have accomplished against teams with winning records is not significant, then there is no way to win your game. But we already knew that.

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Y'know what's not relative? 10 years of the same staff and no MAC title.

I wonder how many coaches in MAC in last 25 years have had tenures that long with no title.

idk. And I don't care to find out.

Do you know who has a MAC Championship since 2005? Turner Gill.

Turner Gill is one of the worst P5 conference hires in my conscious life time. His staff has only beaten an FBS team with a winning record twice, all-time.

"Gill finished his first season at Kansas being outscored 413 to 198, the worst scoring difference since 2002. KU also finished in the bottom tenth of teams in both offense and defense."

The following year under Turner Gill.

"The Jayhawks started the season 2-0, but finished on a 10-game losing streak. This included six of the most lopsided defeats in school history�66-24 to Georgia Tech, 70-28 to Oklahoma State, 47-17 to Oklahoma, 59-21 to Kansas State, 43-0 to Texas and 61-7 to Texas A&M."

Let's not forget the "analyst" (Charles Barkley) that called Auburn racist (lol) for not hiring Turner Gill. Auburn hired Gene Chizik instead and went on to win the National Championship two years later under Gene.

Gene had zero conference championships under his belt prior to his National Championship year. Turner Gill is now coaching at Liberty.

Since you think most MAC teams "stink", we can assume you think more highly of the Power Conferences. I've demonstrated in this post that coaching your way to a MAC Championship is not an indicator of being able to compete at the with Power Conference schools (even relative to a program of Kansas' historical stature). But as we know, Frank is a two (2) time Big 12 Coach of the Year, and he has something much more indicative of National success, a Big 12 Championship.

Last Edited: 11/14/2014 7:04:45 AM by The Situation

GoCats105
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/14/2014 7:32:49 AM

Situation,

Bad example. Gus Malzahn and Cam Newton won that national title for Auburn. Gene Chizik didn't do squat. It was evident the next two years when Malzahn went to Arkansas State and Newton was drafted because Auburn wasn't the same team. It was also even more evident when Malzahn came back to be the head coach of Auburn. Chizik's career record as a head coach without Malzahn as his OC was 8-28.

I understand your point, but bad example.

Last Edited: 11/14/2014 7:35:04 AM by GoCats105

The Situation
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/14/2014 8:19:20 AM

GoCats,

Gene was more or less a tangent to my point. (I take great exception to grandiose allegations of "racism". The Gene tangent was an uneccesarry caveat to my point. A stronger argument would've left that tangent out). You've identified other variables at play for Gene's success. I agree. But the Turner Gill example was presented so I could make this statement:

"Since you [Monroe] think most MAC teams 'stink', we can assume you think more highly of the Power Conferences. I've demonstrated in this post that coaching your way to a MAC Championship is not an indicator of being able to compete with the Power Conference schools (even relative to a program of Kansas' historical stature)."

I then referenced Frank's Big 12 Championship (same conference as Kansas) as evidence that Frank can compete with the power conference schools.

Last Edited: 11/14/2014 8:31:28 AM by The Situation

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/14/2014 10:09:49 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

So you're saying Auburn also needed good players to win a national title? Poppycock!!!

Monroe Slavin
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RE: OHIO a Statistical Phoenix; 2015 MAC East Favorite?

Posted: 11/14/2014 10:12:16 AM

situation--how many of your statistical irrelevancies mean that we win the MAC title?

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