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Topic:  Week 10 MAC Power Rankings

Topic:  Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
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The Situation
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  Message Not Read  Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 11:12:11 AM 
Based on Week 10 OPPA++

RNK --- TEAM

45 ------ Toledo (5-3)
61 ------ Ball State (3-5)
73 ------ Western Michigan (5-3)
85 ------ Central Michigan (5-4)
86 ------ Akron (4-4)
89 ------ Ohio (4-5)
90 ------ Northern Illinois (6-2)
94 ------ Bowling Green (5-3)
109 ------ Buffalo (3-5)
113 ------ Eastern Michigan (2-6)
119 ------ Massachusetts (2-7)
119 ------ Miami (OH) (2-7)
123 ------ Kent State (1-7)
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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 11:53:00 AM 
See here is my problem with your excellent work (not sarcasm). Bowling Green beat Ohio, so they should never be ranked below Ohio, unless the season goes completely into the tank, obviously. However, as you've mentioned, your in-season rankings don't really reflect where the team will finish. Please keep posting these as the season goes along because I'm interested to see how it shakes out.

BTW, are there any other teams in other conferences like that? Teams that lost to another team, but ahead of them in your rankings?
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 12:04:12 PM 
I don't know what formula you're using but it has little credibility given what the eye can see. We are not as good as BG and we are not as good as NIU. That's just obvious.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 1:02:55 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
I don't know what formula you're using but it has little credibility given what the eye can see. We are not as good as BG and we are not as good as NIU. That's just obvious.

Ask about NIU in a few weeks. NIU is not the NIU of a few years ago.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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The Situation
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 1:53:51 PM 
GoCats105,

Thank you for the compliment. I will continue posting OPPA++ Rankings. I enjoy the back and forth with you on this topic and hope it continues as the season progresses.

GoCats105 wrote:
Bowling Green beat Ohio, so they should never be ranked below Ohio, unless the season goes completely into the tank, obviously.

BTW, are there any other teams in other conferences like that? Teams that lost to another team, but ahead of them in your rankings?


I'll address both issues at once.

What evidence supports the conclusion in your post? I do not agree and I will add that you have ventured into the realm of the paradoxical.

"A paradox is a statement that apparently contradicts itself and yet might be true. Most logical paradoxes are known to be invalid arguments but are still valuable in promoting critical thinking."

Theoretically, if rankings are supposed to predict the outcome of a given week's games (which I don't believe is a necessary condition), the only position that matters is the winning team's rank above the losing team.

BGSU beat OHIO therefore, they should be ranked ahead of OHIO?

LSU beat Ole Miss, therefore LSU > Ole Miss

Auburn beat LSU, therefore Auburn > LSU

According to the conclusion in your post, Auburn must beat Ole Miss this Saturday, else your logic is invalid.

Because LSU > Ole Miss > Auburn > LSU openly and directly contradicts itself.

Has some conference paradox like this already occurred this season? Probably, but I haven't checked. Will one occur before the season ends? Most definitely.
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The Situation
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 2:03:22 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
I don't know what formula you're using but it has little credibility given what the eye can see. We are not as good as BG and we are not as good as NIU. That's just obvious.


Little credibility?

I'm using my same OPPA++ rankings that correctly picked the win-loss outcomes of 78% of last week's FBS match-ups (w/o spreads). Jeff Sagarin picked one additional correct outcome to achieve 80%.

Eye test? I had Penn State and OSU separated by one position. They went to double OT. Sagarin had Penn State 35 positions behind OSU.

If I have little credibility, who has a significant amount??

I've discussed at length in other threads precisely why the eye test is invalid ranking methodology in college football.

What does your eye test tell the world about UMass's 7 pt loss at Toledo this weekend? It will tell you everything and nothing at the same time.
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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 2:14:29 PM 
The Situation wrote:
GoCats105,

Thank you for the compliment. I will continue posting OPPA++ Rankings. I enjoy the back and forth with you on this topic and hope it continues as the season progresses.

GoCats105 wrote:
Bowling Green beat Ohio, so they should never be ranked below Ohio, unless the season goes completely into the tank, obviously.

BTW, are there any other teams in other conferences like that? Teams that lost to another team, but ahead of them in your rankings?


I'll address both issues at once.

What evidence supports the conclusion in your post? I do not agree and I will add that you have ventured into the realm of the paradoxical.

"A paradox is a statement that apparently contradicts itself and yet might be true. Most logical paradoxes are known to be invalid arguments but are still valuable in promoting critical thinking."

Theoretically, if rankings are supposed to predict the outcome of a given week's games (which I don't believe is a necessary condition), the only position that matters is the winning team's rank above the losing team.

BGSU beat OHIO therefore, they should be ranked ahead of OHIO?

LSU beat Ole Miss, therefore LSU > Ole Miss

Auburn beat LSU, therefore Auburn > LSU

According to the conclusion in your post, Auburn must beat Ole Miss this Saturday, else your logic is invalid.

Because LSU > Ole Miss > Auburn > LSU openly and directly contradicts itself.

Has some conference paradox like this already occurred this season? Probably, but I haven't checked. Will one occur before the season ends? Most definitely.


Which is why I'm interested to see how it shakes out at the end of the season. My guess is if things stay on their current course, BG will be ranked ahead of Ohio. I wasn't jumping into a paradox, I was simply stating a fact that BG beat Ohio, handily I might add.

The whole paradox and transitive property you've added up there doesn't apply to head/head matchups. UNLESS, the winning team rattles off more losses than the team they beat. Which, in this case, BG has not.
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The Situation
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 2:35:44 PM 
GoCats105 wrote:


I wasn't jumping into a paradox, I was simply stating a fact that BG beat Ohio, handily I might add.

The whole paradox and transitive property you've added up there doesn't apply to head/head matchups.


Proposed GoCats105 Rule:

GoCats105 wrote:
Team A (Bowling Green) beat Team B (Ohio), so they (Team A) should never be ranked below Team B (Ohio), unless the season goes completely into the tank, obviously.


I wasn't discussing the transitive property. I was discussing a head to head paradox.

Test:

Assumption: None of these team's seasons have gone completely in the tank (all of the involved teams currently have two (2) or less losses)

LSU beats Ole Miss:

1. LSU (Team A)
2. Ole Miss (Team B)

Auburn beats LSU:

3. Auburn (Team A')
4. LSU (Team B') (Team A)
5. Ole Miss (Team B)

If Ole Miss beats Auburn, there is no possible order to rank the three (3) teams based on head to head logic.

Ole Miss beats Auburn:

1. Auburn (Team A') (Team B''')
2. LSU (Team B') (Team A)
3. Ole Miss (Team B) (Team A''')

All teams are simultaneously Team As and Team Bs in these head to head matchups, therefore ranking these three teams in any order based on your proposed rule is impossible

Btw, I might add Auburn beat LSU 41-7. LSU beat Ole Miss by 4. Just like the eye test, margin of victory tells you everything and nothing at the same time.

Last Edited: 10/27/2014 2:42:38 PM by The Situation

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 2:45:22 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
I don't know what formula you're using but it has little credibility given what the eye can see. We are not as good as BG and we are not as good as NIU. That's just obvious.

Ask about NIU in a few weeks. NIU is not the NIU of a few years ago.


They may not be, but Ohio is not the Ohio of a few years ago. But they are finding ways to win. They are still 6-2 and have a win over a Big 28 team. We beat Akron, who just might spiral into they abyss very shortly.
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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 2:52:15 PM 
Situation,

This is the problem with your rankings, well at least my issue: your ranking is probably going to be very, very accurate when the season is over. It just looks weird to me right now midseason. It would to anyone who watches college football for a living. Shit, Herbstreit's head might explode and Phil Steele would probably have aneurism. I understand what you're saying with the head-to-head paradox, but in reality it doesn't really compute that way only 8-9 games in. Once all 12 games have been played, it should be a little more telling I think.

Which technically should be the point of rankings right? When are they needed? When the season is over and it gets decided who goes where.
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OUcats82
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 4:34:55 PM 
I know they are not the same team that played in the Orange Bowl etc., but given the ups and downs of this season, a home win over NIU would be a great feather in the cap for this year's squad.


Ohio-The State University

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The Situation
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 5:26:28 PM 
The rankings may look weird. But the numbers aren't that weird.

BGSU:

- 0-2 vs teams with winning records
- 0 wins against teams with a 0.500 record
- Beat #64 IU, #89 OHIO, #109 Buffalo, #119 UMass, FCS team
- BG's only qualifying OPPA bonus is the indirect accomplishment from IU beating Mizzou (currently valued at 0.2 pt)
* IU is 1-4 vs teams with winning records (1-1 vs Top 40)
* IU has wins over #26 Mizzou, #106 North Texas, FCS
* Mizzou win currently valued at 1.4 pts; that's why IU is #64, they are one outlier victory away from being nobody, and that's why BG doesn't benefit significantly
- BG gets some credit from beating IU who nabbed a (fluke?) victory over Mizzou, but let's say BG beat #63 Navy (4-4) instead (and that hypothetically Navy would remain 0.500). BG would've earned 1 pt for beating a 0.500 team (like Navy) instead of 0.2 pts from Indiana. Navy is currently 2-3 vs teams with winning records (who would've been the better win? That may be an interesting debate). BG in that scenario then be ranked #80, ahead of OHIO by 9 spots.


OHIO:

- 0-5 vs teams with winning records
- 1 win vs a team with 0.500 record, Akron (currently valued at 1 pt)
- Beat #86 Akron, #106 Idaho, #123 Kent, FCS team

There is no calculation in my ranking system for the paradoxical head to head constraints you described for the reasons I described above. BG has been ranked based on what they've earned, and as weird as it looks, the OHIO team they've beaten earned a more significant victory (so far) than them.

This all said another way:

Yeah BG beat the #89 OHIO team? So what does that tell me? A team ranked #80 or lower has lost 232 times so far this season. A team with a 0.500 record has only lost 52 times. Bottom 30% wins are a dime a dozen.
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JSF
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 6:59:37 PM 
GoCats105 wrote:
Situation,

This is the problem with your rankings, well at least my issue: your ranking is probably going to be very, very accurate when the season is over. It just looks weird to me right now midseason. It would to anyone who watches college football for a living. Shit, Herbstreit's head might explode and Phil Steele would probably have aneurism. I understand what you're saying with the head-to-head paradox, but in reality it doesn't really compute that way only 8-9 games in. Once all 12 games have been played, it should be a little more telling I think.

Which technically should be the point of rankings right? When are they needed? When the season is over and it gets decided who goes where.


It sounds like your problem isn't with his system but having an incomplete data set. If his ratings are accurate at the end, that's what is most important.


"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/27/2014 7:21:33 PM 
GoCats105 wrote:
Which is why I'm interested to see how it shakes out at the end of the season. My guess is if things stay on their current course, BG will be ranked ahead of Ohio. I wasn't jumping into a paradox, I was simply stating a fact that BG beat Ohio, handily I might add.

The whole paradox and transitive property you've added up there doesn't apply to head/head matchups. UNLESS, the winning team rattles off more losses than the team they beat. Which, in this case, BG has not.

Indeed, though, your specific BG-Ohio example may well end up part of a paradox situation, since I expect Akron to beat BG. If, on the other hand, BG beats Akron, the situation will resolve in his system by moving BG ahead of Ohio.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: Week 10 MAC Power Rankings
   Posted: 10/28/2014 7:16:34 AM 
JSF wrote:
GoCats105 wrote:
Situation,

This is the problem with your rankings, well at least my issue: your ranking is probably going to be very, very accurate when the season is over. It just looks weird to me right now midseason. It would to anyone who watches college football for a living. Shit, Herbstreit's head might explode and Phil Steele would probably have aneurism. I understand what you're saying with the head-to-head paradox, but in reality it doesn't really compute that way only 8-9 games in. Once all 12 games have been played, it should be a little more telling I think.

Which technically should be the point of rankings right? When are they needed? When the season is over and it gets decided who goes where.


It sounds like your problem isn't with his system but having an incomplete data set. If his ratings are accurate at the end, that's what is most important.


I will stipulate that you are correct.
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