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Topic: RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Topic: RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

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cc-cat
General User

Member Since: 4/5/2006
Location: matthews, NC
Post Count: 3,820

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RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/29/2014 4:45:03 PM

The Situation wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

Do you not think SEC is the best conference in college football? I'm just curious.

I had to Google it, but the SEC was 7-3 in bowl games last year. Maybe Oz got confused and thought the Big Ten's 2-5 record was 5-2.

Or maybe he was confused because that (2-5) was the Big Ten's record in the 2012/2013 bowl season as well. A drop from 4-6 in 2011/2012. So they have 2 and 4 wins....do we hear 3...yes in 2010/2011 - 3 wins and 5 losses.

They are consistent.

Ozcat
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Member Since: 1/4/2005
Location: Gahanna, OH
Post Count: 818

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RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/29/2014 7:43:43 PM

Weird. I don't recall even bringing up the Big Ten.... (I think they're god awful presently, fwiw.)

The SEC is the deepest conference. Whoever makes it out of the SEC championship is usually pretty damn good, if not the best team in the country. The next best team is usually very comparable to any other champion from the P5. But if it was by far and away the greatest conference to ever play football in the history of earth, then two programs who struggled to maintain relevance in the Big XII shouldn't have been able to walk right in and challenge the SEC title from day one. They should've been dumptrucked.

The SEC West is very good. But I'll stop short of saying 4 of the best 5 teams in the nation reside there.

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/29/2014 9:39:47 PM

Ozcat wrote:

But if it was by far and away the greatest conference to ever play football in the history of earth, then two programs who struggled to maintain relevance in the Big XII shouldn't have been able to walk right in and challenge the SEC title from day one. They should've been dumptrucked.

What evidence are you basing your conclusion on?

You might, maybe, have an argument if Johnny Manziel didn't exist. The reality is Missouri didn't "struggle to maintain relevance" in the Big 12. Maybe Texas A&M did; but most traditional powers can excel in their first year in the SEC if they have a Heisman QB.

Missouri

2013 SEC --- 12-2
2012 SEC --- 5-7 <----- might be a dumptruck
2011 Big 12 --- 8-5
2010 Big 12 --- 10-3
2009 Big 12 --- 8-5
2008 Big 12 --- 10-4
2007 Big 12 --- 12-2

Texas A&M

2013 SEC --- 9-4<----- Johnny Manziel
2012 SEC --- 11-2 <----- Johnny Manziel
2011 Big 12 --- 7-6
2010 Big 12 --- 9-4
2009 Big 12 --- 6-7
2008 Big 12 --- 4-8
2007 Big 12 --- 7-6

GoCats105
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Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,910

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RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/30/2014 8:28:48 AM

Situation,

Based off of your rankings, are you able to make any kind of predictions week-to-week or end of season? Do you simply say the higher ranked team is going to win? Or is it not that simple?

GoCats105
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Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,910

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RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/30/2014 8:39:21 AM

The Situation wrote:

Ozcat wrote:

You could even argue that Missouri's 1st year in the SEC was bad because James Franklin battled injuries the entire season. After coming off shoulder surgery no less. Also, they played a ridiculous number of games against bowl teams, nine by my count (Georgia, ASU, South Carolina, UCF, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Florida, Syracuse and Texas A&M) with a combined record of 93-27. Six of those nine teams won 10 games or more. Although I'm not sure that argues the point in a good way, but it does show how tough they had it Year 1.

Last Edited: 10/30/2014 9:38:28 AM by GoCats105

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/30/2014 10:35:49 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

Situation,

Based off of your rankings, are you able to make any kind of predictions week-to-week or end of season? Do you simply say the higher ranked team is going to win? Or is it not that simple?

Predicting which team will cover the spread is exponentially more difficult than picking the straight up winner. The spread is designed as an equalizer. In theory the bettor is faced with a series of coin tosses when facing the spread.

A potential exists to create a week to week advantage significantly greater than a coin toss however.

I will be noticeably less forthcoming about my spread picking methodology. But I will say the OPPA++ Rankings are the foundation.

For example,

Last week 80% of OPPA++ missed picks came on one possession point spreads. (A missed pick defined as team with a numerically lower OPPA++ ranking wins; ie #23 predicted to beat #33)

Data strongly suggests whoever wins a one possession point spread matchup (favorite or underdog) will cover the spread. (ie Favorite wins by >spread. And Underdog wins therefore cover).

I won't openly discuss what percentage of the one possession point spread matchups are upsets (although I've put enough information in this thread to glean a general idea).

What's significant in this example is a significant majority of OPPA++ upsets are by the home team underdog. And I will go further to state that their is a strong correlation between the home team underdog upset and the OPPA difference between opponents.

In other words:

I know that OPPA++ cannot pick every game straight up (this is what I've referred to as a fruitless task; an unachievable ranking system ideal). The greatest weakness lies in the one possession spread matchups (which may be obvious to some). But I do believe strong correlations exist to identify some upsets and some favorites who would likely cover. These correlations extend beyond one possession spreads, but weaken as the point spreads increase in number.

GoCats105
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Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
Post Count: 6,910

Status: Offline

RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/30/2014 10:42:57 AM

Good stuff.

Isn't the correlation with an upset being the home team underdog kind of a given? I mean, the underdog is going to play better at home without question, so of course that will correlate to more wins. But the fact that your data backs it up is impressive.

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: My Mid-Season College Football Rankings

Posted: 10/30/2014 11:53:02 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

I agree it's easy to say in general home teams can upset opponents. But a significant advantage is created when the bettor can say which home teams most likely will not upset their opponent.

For weeks 8 and 9 my rankings were 10 of 10 on away teams that beat one possession spread matchups that met specific criteria. I won't disclose that criteria. In any case this is a limited sample. I have the intention to expand my analysis historically when I have the time.

But I will throw you a bone and say that the majority of road underdogs that upset are within 15 OPPA rankings of their opponent (and that's not to say all of those close matchups become upsets, only a percentage do). The data would suggest a road upset comes from a specific sect of relative competition. The home upset comes from a significantly wider range of opponents.

In other words, there are teams that can upset a specific opponent at home and on the road. There is a grouping of teams that are likely able to upset a specific opponent at home, but not on the road. And there is a grouping that is likely not able to upset a specific opponent all together.

Often the home/road matchups are too close to call. Only a few one possession spreads each week will feature an opponent who is likely unable to upset a specific opponent all together.

Last Edited: 10/30/2014 12:03:37 PM by The Situation

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