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Topic:  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Topic:  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 11:28:00 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Bcat2--Did you know that video replays are widely available? This will give you a chance to watch last week's game vs. NIU. 'cause if you think that they were danged lucky to beat us, it's clear that you didn't watch the game.


Would you, for once in your life, acknowledge reality.

Did we play well? Pretty much. Was it our best performance of the year? Arguably. Are we improving? Yes.

But to assert that NIU was lucky is not at all a fair characterization. Watch their drive for their last td. That was not luck. That was the better team showing it.

I don't know if they were darn lucky, but this game could have gone either way. It was in doubt until the last 4 minutes and the Ohio fumble.
Why be so adamant that Ohio couldn't have won that game if a "lucky" play went our way.


Certainly we could have used a lucky bounce here or there. When we did get one (NIU, who never fumbles, fumbled to open the 2nd half) we gave it right back. Unfortunately, we were only glad to return turnovers in spades... as we have much of this year. We are a fumbling team, so you could hardly call it luck for NIU when we fumbled yet again with the game on the line.
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bshot44
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 2:36:35 PM 
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Bcat2--Did you know that video replays are widely available? This will give you a chance to watch last week's game vs. NIU. 'cause if you think that they were danged lucky to beat us, it's clear that you didn't watch the game.


Would you, for once in your life, acknowledge reality.

Did we play well? Pretty much. Was it our best performance of the year? Arguably. Are we improving? Yes.

But to assert that NIU was lucky is not at all a fair characterization. Watch their drive for their last td. That was not luck. That was the better team showing it.


+1
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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 3:12:36 PM 
bshot44 wrote:
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Bcat2--Did you know that video replays are widely available? This will give you a chance to watch last week's game vs. NIU. 'cause if you think that they were danged lucky to beat us, it's clear that you didn't watch the game.


Would you, for once in your life, acknowledge reality.

Did we play well? Pretty much. Was it our best performance of the year? Arguably. Are we improving? Yes.

But to assert that NIU was lucky is not at all a fair characterization. Watch their drive for their last td. That was not luck. That was the better team showing it.


+1


Saw the game and before I made any comments I even checked the stats. Ohio owned the stats. Ohio slugged it out with NIU throughout the game. Credit to NIU for the 8 play 80 yard 2:50 drive you referred to. Interesting it was immediately following Ohio's 7 play 78 yard 2:55 drive. Ohio should receive equal credit as Ohio's drive was not luck either. NIU had some nice drives, but, Ohio had drives of 10, 10, 10, 8 and 7 plays too. This was a game that ended, NIU leading, though I believe given two more series each Ohio might have been ahead. NIU did nothing to convince me that on that day they were clearly the better team. JMHO.


"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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bobcat2nc
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 7:56:53 PM 
Bcat2 wrote:
bshot44 wrote:
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Bcat2--Did you know that video replays are widely available? This will give you a chance to watch last week's game vs. NIU. 'cause if you think that they were danged lucky to beat us, it's clear that you didn't watch the game.


Would you, for once in your life, acknowledge reality.

Did we play well? Pretty much. Was it our best performance of the year? Arguably. Are we improving? Yes.

But to assert that NIU was lucky is not at all a fair characterization. Watch their drive for their last td. That was not luck. That was the better team showing it.


+1


. This was a game that ended, NIU leading, though I believe given two more series each Ohio might have been ahead. NIU did nothing to convince me that on that day they were clearly the better team. JMHO.


And given 4 more series NUI might have re-taken the lead. If Ohio lost to an inferior team then shame on Ohio for not putting the game away.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 8:05:02 PM 
Bcat2 wrote:
bshot44 wrote:
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Bcat2--Did you know that video replays are widely available? This will give you a chance to watch last week's game vs. NIU. 'cause if you think that they were danged lucky to beat us, it's clear that you didn't watch the game.


Would you, for once in your life, acknowledge reality.

Did we play well? Pretty much. Was it our best performance of the year? Arguably. Are we improving? Yes.

But to assert that NIU was lucky is not at all a fair characterization. Watch their drive for their last td. That was not luck. That was the better team showing it.


+1


Saw the game and before I made any comments I even checked the stats. Ohio owned the stats. Ohio slugged it out with NIU throughout the game. Credit to NIU for the 8 play 80 yard 2:50 drive you referred to. Interesting it was immediately following Ohio's 7 play 78 yard 2:55 drive. Ohio should receive equal credit as Ohio's drive was not luck either. NIU had some nice drives, but, Ohio had drives of 10, 10, 10, 8 and 7 plays too. This was a game that ended, NIU leading, though I believe given two more series each Ohio might have been ahead. NIU did nothing to convince me that on that day they were clearly the better team. JMHO.


Bull. Offensive yards don't tell the whole story. NIU finished drives when they got close. Ohio missed field goals, punted like crap and turned the ball over. NIU played the more complete game and they won as a result.
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 10:35:31 PM 
Update: With Ohio's win, there are now 72 bowl eligible teams with two that will make it this weekend, for a total of 74. Two slots to fill. Here are the five-win teams with who they play:

Temps (5-5): Cincy, @Tulane
Navy (5-5): @Sbama, vs. Army
Fresno (5-6): Hawaii
ODU (5-6): @FAU
UAB (5-6): @SMiss
Akron (5-6): @Kent
Tenn (5-6): @Vandy
Pitt (5-6): @MiamiF
Cal (5-6): BYU
OreSt (5-6): Ore
UK (5-6): @Lville
OklaSt (5-6): @Okla
Mich (5-6): @O$U


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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Maryland Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 10:56:43 PM 
Word in Annapolis is that the Navy bowl in San Diego is no longer a sure thing. The bowl still desperately wants them because they will bring 30K+, but if they don't beat S. Alabama Friday there's still a slight chance they will give the bid to someone else rather than wait for Army game. I've heard if they have a solid backup to Navy they will hold off for the Army game to be played.

That being said I fully expect them to beat S. Ala, especially after trouncing Ga Southern last week. They are playing well right now. Knocking S. Ala down to 6-6 could help, too, I guess.
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Bcat2
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/25/2014 11:02:40 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
Bcat2 wrote:
bshot44 wrote:
Monroe Slavin wrote:
Bcat2--Did you know that video replays are widely available? This will give you a chance to watch last week's game vs. NIU. 'cause if you think that they were danged lucky to beat us, it's clear that you didn't watch the game.


Would you, for once in your life, acknowledge reality.

Did we play well? Pretty much. Was it our best performance of the year? Arguably. Are we improving? Yes.

But to assert that NIU was lucky is not at all a fair characterization. Watch their drive for their last td. That was not luck. That was the better team showing it.


+1


Saw the game and before I made any comments I even checked the stats. Ohio owned the stats. Ohio slugged it out with NIU throughout the game. Credit to NIU for the 8 play 80 yard 2:50 drive you referred to. Interesting it was immediately following Ohio's 7 play 78 yard 2:55 drive. Ohio should receive equal credit as Ohio's drive was not luck either. NIU had some nice drives, but, Ohio had drives of 10, 10, 10, 8 and 7 plays too. This was a game that ended, NIU leading, though I believe given two more series each Ohio might have been ahead. NIU did nothing to convince me that on that day they were clearly the better team. JMHO.


Bull. Offensive yards don't tell the whole story. NIU finished drives when they got close. Ohio missed field goals, punted like crap and turned the ball over. NIU played the more complete game and they won as a result.


Winning is not always pretty; NIU/Ohio or Ohio/Miami, but, it need always be appreciated.


"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

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catfan28
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 12:20:21 PM 
The MAC has back-up agreements that the Sun Belt and C-USA do not (with ESPN Bowls, Detroit, etc). IMO, we really do not need to worry about those teams being eligible.

Also, ODU is not eligible for a bowl game so that game doesn't matter. Link: http://hamptonroads.com/2013/01/conference-usa-odu-eligib...

For argument's sake, here's the teams I would project to get to get to 6 wins:

- Temple
- Navy
- Fresno
- UAB
- Tennessee

Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools.

If you want to feel safer, it would be great to see any of the above teams upset this weekend. Of course, we can't afford for too many of the underdogs to win.

But, IMO, we are in. Book it.
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C Money
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 2:02:36 PM 
catfan28 wrote:
The MAC has back-up agreements that the Sun Belt and C-USA do not (with ESPN Bowls, Detroit, etc). IMO, we really do not need to worry about those teams being eligible.

Also, ODU is not eligible for a bowl game so that game doesn't matter. Link: http://hamptonroads.com/2013/01/conference-usa-odu-eligib...

For argument's sake, here's the teams I would project to get to get to 6 wins:

- Temple
- Navy
- Fresno
- UAB
- Tennessee

Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools.

If you want to feel safer, it would be great to see any of the above teams upset this weekend. Of course, we can't afford for too many of the underdogs to win.

But, IMO, we are in. Book it.


I forgot about ODU not being eligible.

Here's what I got:
-Navy likely to get to at least 6 wins.
-In AAC, Temple likely to get 1 win in it's last 2 and take the last AAC spot.
-In ACC, Pitt not likely to win. FSU wins out.
-In Big 12, Okie State not likely to win.
-In B1G, osu beats Wisconsin in conference championship, MSU wins out.
-In CUSA, UAB likely to win, WKU not likely to win, and MTSU/UTEP loser will be 6-6. CUSA has 2 eligible teams without primary tie-ins
-In MAC, Kron likely to win. MAC has 2 eligible teams without primary tie-ins
-In MWC, Fresno likely to win, Boise wins out.
-In Pac12, Cal not likely to win.
-In SEC, Tennessee likely to win. It's either Bama or Miss St vs. Georgia or Missouri in the conference title, and who wins doesn't matter.
-In Sun Belt, So. Alabama and Arky State likely to lose.
-Selection Committee takes in no particular order FSU, GaTech (ACC guaranteed a 2nd pick in Orange if FSU is in playoff), TCU, Baylor, osu, Mich State, Oregon, Boise [or CSU....the committee hates T'erd], Bama, and one other SEC team.

That would leave the 6-6 G5 teams as: loser of MTSU/UTEP, UAB, WKU, Ohio, Kron, So. Alabama, and Arky State. P5 conferences with extra teams are Pac 12 (1) and SEC (1). Conferences that didn't fill their primary bowl allotment would be ACC/ND (1), Big 12 (1), and Army's spot in the Armed Forces Bowl. Our secondary tie-in in Detroit just might still be in play, so long as FSU wins out and Pitt loses to Miami.

The other secondary tie-in might be triggered if Navy loses to So. Alabama. Would the Poinsettia Bowl wait until after the Army/Navy game to make a bid? If all the MWC and P5 eligible teams have homes, they might not.

Otherwise, I think we have to pull for Upset-A-Palooza with Vandy beating Tennessee, Hawaii beating Fresno State, Tulane beating Temple, Kent beating Kron, and both NW/Illinois and UVa/VaTech defying the rules of college football and ending in ties.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 2:54:31 PM 
catfan28 wrote:
Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools....

Aren't there 39 bowls now, meaning 78 teams?


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 3:36:48 PM 
L.C. wrote:
catfan28 wrote:
Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools....

Aren't there 39 bowls now, meaning 78 teams?


That number sounds right. I crunched the numbers today and things are on pace for Ohio, Akron, Texas State as the only at large teams in the field for 5 openings. What I did was I counted all of the slots each conference and everyone with 6 wins plus subtracted out schools headed to New Years Day games. That leaves the Big 12 and PAC 12 with two openings and one for Navy not making a bowl. Factored in to this was a look at all the 5-6 teams. Virginia Tech/ Virginia and Northwestern/Illinois play each other. Temple, Navy, Frsesno, Tennessee and Akron would be all favored to win. There are not enough potential upsets to dislodge Ohio from a bowl. Akron I would be sweating it but they probably make it too if they take out Kent State.


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2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
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Casper71
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 3:42:29 PM 
I love all the speculation and the numbers and all that stuff but, even as an accountant, it is making me dizzy!

So, I will just say we beat Miami and by doing so we became BOWL eligible. That is fantastic! Then, I will try to refrain from figuring out what everyone on here is saying and just wait for the official actual announcements rather than rack my brain with all the scenarios that are out of our control.
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catfan28
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 4:01:54 PM 
We will know our fate by Sunday. The only game the following weekend with any implications would be Temple, but I'd give them very good odds of a W.

Too many upsets and we may be in trouble, but I'm really liking our chances.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 4:06:39 PM 
Casper71 wrote:
I love all the speculation and the numbers and all that stuff but, even as an accountant, it is making me dizzy!

So, I will just say we beat Miami and by doing so we became BOWL eligible. That is fantastic! Then, I will try to refrain from figuring out what everyone on here is saying and just wait for the official actual announcements rather than rack my brain with all the scenarios that are out of our control.

I'm right with you, Casper. I don't know if they are going to a bowl, and I don't particularly care at this point. They got eligible. They avoided a losing regular season record. They beat Miami. They had a fantastic comeback. They grew up a lot in that game. All that is enough for me, for now. I'll just enjoy it, and wait for the official announcements. If they get a bowl invitation, great. If they don't, they still end on a high note.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 4:28:10 PM 
catfan28 wrote:
We will know our fate by Sunday. The only game the following weekend with any implications would be Temple, but I'd give them very good odds of a W.

Too many upsets and we may be in trouble, but I'm really liking our chances.


That beer bet at Jacki O's is still out there. Haven't heard your reply yet?
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 4:57:53 PM 
Alan, as an offhand question, what do you think the advertising value of being in a bowl is? Obviously it has some value. For teams in a bowl, they get countless name mentions throughout the holiday season. In addition, they get many mentions during their own game, as well as some free ad spots for their school during the game. If you were going to try to put a value on all that "free" advertising, what kind of number would you come up with?


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 5:30:19 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Alan, as an offhand question, what do you think the advertising value of being in a bowl is? Obviously it has some value. For teams in a bowl, they get countless name mentions throughout the holiday season. In addition, they get many mentions during their own game, as well as some free ad spots for their school during the game. If you were going to try to put a value on all that "free" advertising, what kind of number would you come up with?


That's a good and fair question. Let me go at it in reverse order of what you have listed:

1) Our current free ad is horrible in my opinion. I can't think of an ad for a college off of the top of my head that I truly remember. However, throughout the bowl season, there will be a few that have that wow factor. The video for the Stroh Center at BG is/was a memorable marketing piece in my opinion. Our current ad could be any school, any place. I honestly believe six of us from this board could come up with a better video if we were provided the technical video and sound expertise. So for the free ad spots - very little value for OU at this point.

2) Mentions during the game are very important but what is equally important is the announcing team. If they are informed and have done their homework, they can make a school. If they aren't, there isn't much value. It's as if they are on for three hours until the next important game. If there is a good technical director who captures the OU experience in the stands and on the field, that's a big plus. So for in-game mentions, huge if we get a good broadcast team and technical director.

3) Mentions throughout the holiday season can very well get lost in all of the noise - you know the old Springsteen song, 57 Channels and Nothing On. On the other hand, having your school's team in a bowl leads to lots of discussions among family and friends ands fellow workers and probably leads to a much greater awareness by some of the existence of a school that they may not have known much about or ever heard of before. When we were on a roll in those two NCAA tournaments, many of my friends in the yearbook business who are scattered all over the country messaged me and emailed me quite often. That said, they are already sports fans. As to the number of new fans, converts or devotees that we pick up, that's very hard to measure. There is true value for a school's name recognition and the perception of said institution by playing in a bowl game. An effective school ad, high production values, and of course a well played game in which there are memorable plays and hopefully a win by your school, probably have as much as anything to do with the value that the school receives for the bowl appearance.

Last Edited: 11/26/2014 5:33:40 PM by Alan Swank

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Mike Johnson
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 6:24:00 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Alan, as an offhand question, what do you think the advertising value of being in a bowl is? Obviously it has some value. For teams in a bowl, they get countless name mentions throughout the holiday season. In addition, they get many mentions during their own game, as well as some free ad spots for their school during the game. If you were going to try to put a value on all that "free" advertising, what kind of number would you come up with?


That's a good and fair question. Let me go at it in reverse order of what you have listed:

1) Our current free ad is horrible in my opinion. I can't think of an ad for a college off of the top of my head that I truly remember. However, throughout the bowl season, there will be a few that have that wow factor. The video for the Stroh Center at BG is/was a memorable marketing piece in my opinion. Our current ad could be any school, any place. I honestly believe six of us from this board could come up with a better video if we were provided the technical video and sound expertise. So for the free ad spots - very little value for OU at this point.

2) Mentions during the game are very important but what is equally important is the announcing team. If they are informed and have done their homework, they can make a school. If they aren't, there isn't much value. It's as if they are on for three hours until the next important game. If there is a good technical director who captures the OU experience in the stands and on the field, that's a big plus. So for in-game mentions, huge if we get a good broadcast team and technical director.

3) Mentions throughout the holiday season can very well get lost in all of the noise - you know the old Springsteen song, 57 Channels and Nothing On. On the other hand, having your school's team in a bowl leads to lots of discussions among family and friends ands fellow workers and probably leads to a much greater awareness by some of the existence of a school that they may not have known much about or ever heard of before. When we were on a roll in those two NCAA tournaments, many of my friends in the yearbook business who are scattered all over the country messaged me and emailed me quite often. That said, they are already sports fans. As to the number of new fans, converts or devotees that we pick up, that's very hard to measure. There is true value for a school's name recognition and the perception of said institution by playing in a bowl game. An effective school ad, high production values, and of course a well played game in which there are memorable plays and hopefully a win by your school, probably have as much as anything to do with the value that the school receives for the bowl appearance.


L.C. and Alan, fyi...I view all those mentions of Alma Mater during a bowl season as the kind of repetition that strengthens a brand. Just about the time a marketer tires of hearing its name/message is just about the time that audiences are beginning to absorb it. (P.S. I have a feeling I just preached to the choir. Sorry.)


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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 6:33:07 PM 
I would agree that it's a difficult job to assess the value of advertising, whether it is done for an institution of higher education, or whether it is done for a for-profit business. Particularly difficult to assess is the pure name mentions. Still, businesses pay for them (the Stop-and-shop weather minute, or Prudential College Scoreboard, or whatever), so they must have some value.

I don't disagree, either, that Ohio needs a better ad.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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bobcat28
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 6:45:26 PM 
We probably need at least 2 of these to happen to get a bowl invite:

temple lose to tulane
uab lose to southern miss
hawaii lose to fresno st
cal lose to BYU
tennessee lose to vandy

I think BYU and Southern Miss wins might be our best chances.
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 7:15:36 PM 
L.C. wrote:
catfan28 wrote:
Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools....

Aren't there 39 bowls now, meaning 78 teams?


Only 76 spots, as two of those teams play in the championship game. So yes 39 bowls, but 76 teams I think.
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El Gato Roberto
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/26/2014 8:08:13 PM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
catfan28 wrote:
Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools....

Aren't there 39 bowls now, meaning 78 teams?


Only 76 spots, as two of those teams play in the championship game. So yes 39 bowls, but 76 teams I think.


..."only" 76...who'd a'thunk it?


"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/27/2014 8:35:34 AM 
El Gato Roberto wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
catfan28 wrote:
Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools....

Aren't there 39 bowls now, meaning 78 teams?


Only 76 spots, as two of those teams play in the championship game. So yes 39 bowls, but 76 teams I think.


..."only" 76...who'd a'thunk it?

I'm for everyone playing another game at the end of the year just for kicks. I'm just kidding, but we're getting closer.
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility
   Posted: 11/27/2014 9:33:43 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
catfan28 wrote:
Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools....

Aren't there 39 bowls now, meaning 78 teams?


Only 76 spots, as two of those teams play in the championship game. So yes 39 bowls, but 76 teams I think.


A 39th bowl will be added next year in Orlando, as if they need another one. That makes 40 post-season games, with 78 teams to fill them. http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/10784863/a...


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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