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Topic: RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Topic: RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

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C Money
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/20/2014 10:01:41 PM

Tyler wrote:

UNC at Duke at 7:30 tonight. Carolina is 5-5 and still has NC State next week.

35-7 UNC halfway through the 3rd quarter. If this holds, I think we're gonna need both osu and FSU in the playoff, plus an at-large bid to Michigan State.

Short of a little bit of chaos, that is. I like chaos in my college football.

GoCats105
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/21/2014 7:35:12 AM

Carolina dominates the entire game, beats Duke easily. The ACC/N.D. have now met their quota for bowl games. Will be interesting to see if Va. Tech can still get in as well.

Texas State also became bowl eligible last night with a win over Arkansas State. The Sun Belt now has 3+1 bowl eligible teams.

Last Edited: 11/21/2014 7:55:14 AM by GoCats105

C Money
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/22/2014 3:17:46 PM

Illinois upsets Penn State, so either Northwestern or Illinois will be eligible after next week.

UAB gives T'erd all they can handle but will come up about 2 feet short on 4th down. A Southern Miss upset next week will leave UAB ineligible.

Wake does something osu couldn't and beats VaTech 6-3 in double overtime. VaTech has to beat Virginia next week to get eligible.

Last Edited: 11/22/2014 4:00:49 PM by C Money

Tyler
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/22/2014 7:25:35 PM

Wake Forest beat Va Tech 6-3 in double overtime (scoreless in regulation). VT will have to beat UVA next week to become bowl eligible.

Pitt beat Syracuse. They will have to win at Miami (FL) next week to reach 6-6.

Michigan fell to Maryland at home. They'll have to beat O$U in Cowtown to go to a bowl.

Arkansas upset Ole Miss to become bowl eligible.

Stanford (5-5) seems to be in control vs. Cal (5-5). Cal hosts BYU next Saturday.

bobcat28
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/22/2014 7:38:49 PM

Unless there are major upsets I dont see how 6-6 gets us to a bowl this year.

Pataskala
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/22/2014 8:12:34 PM

Either Illinois or Northwestern will get in. They're each 5-6 and they play one another next week. One gets a bowl, the other stays home.

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Campus Flow
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/22/2014 8:23:38 PM

Its too early to tell. Dominate Miami first and see how it plays out.

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Alan Swank
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/22/2014 11:21:54 PM

According to a source without authority to comment on the matter, there will be no bowl this year win or lose on Tuesday night.

catfan28
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 5:43:44 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

According to a source without authority to comment on the matter, there will be no bowl this year win or lose on Tuesday night.

According to a similar source (which is about as good as they come), bowl is a virtual lock at 6-6. We'll see...

BillyTheCat
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 6:42:48 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

According to a source without authority to comment on the matter, there will be no bowl this year win or lose on Tuesday night.

I hear no Bowl, but who knows at this point.

C Money
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 8:16:01 AM

I don't have an inside source, but I don't see how we get a bid. There are too many 6-6 teams from P5 conferences this year, and we don't have a marquis win to separate ourselves from the 6-6 G5 teams.

Last Edited: 11/23/2014 8:16:26 AM by C Money

bobcat28
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 9:12:16 AM

We are not mathematically eliminated but we would need to win at Miami and have upsets like tulane over temple, army beats navy, vandy beats Tennessee, etc.

Pataskala
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 9:28:42 AM

As of this morning there are 71 bowl eligible teams with two more guaranteed for next week; the Illinois-N'western and UVA-VaTech games match up 5-6 teams, so the winner will be bowl eligible and the loser stays home. (Ga Southern and App St have enough wins but they need a waiver to get a bowl bid.) That makes 73 slots filled and three left. There are 14 teams that can still be bowl eligible. Here's who they are and who they play:

Temps (5-5): Cincy, @Tulane
Navy (5-5): @Sbama, vs. Army
Fresno (5-6): Hawaii
ODU (5-6): @FAU
UAB (5-6): @SMiss
Akron (5-6): @Kent
Ohio (5-6): @Fiami
Tenn (5-6): @Vandy
Pitt (5-6): @MiamiF
Cal (5-6): BYU
OreSt (5-6): Ore
UK (5-6): @Lville
OklaSt (5-6): @Okla
Mich (5-6): @O$U

Army didn't qualify, so its bowl slot in the Armed Forces Bowl will need to be filled. The AAC has one to fill. The others have at least enough to fill their slots, but some may be short depending on who the selection committee picks.

Last Edited: 11/23/2014 11:08:55 AM by Pataskala

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Alan Swank
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 10:42:20 AM

catfan28 wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

According to a source without authority to comment on the matter, there will be no bowl this year win or lose on Tuesday night.

According to a similar source (which is about as good as they come), bowl is a virtual lock at 6-6. We'll see...

Care to put a Jacki O's beer on it?

Monroe Slavin
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 12:27:20 PM

Why don't we try beating a MAC school with a winning record?

That could be a fun, worthwhile endeavor. We should do it once every couple of years or so.

Of course, we did beat EMU in 2012.

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Pataskala
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/23/2014 5:10:21 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Why don't we try beating a MAC school with a winning record?

That could be a fun, worthwhile endeavor. We should do it once every couple of years or so.

Of course, we did beat EMU in 2012.

Of course, being in the East we don't get to see that many. This year we had four: BG, CMU, WMU & NIU (and just five on our entire schedule). Last year we had even fewer because we only played two games vs the West.

We will get by.
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Andrew Ruck
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 9:11:44 AM

Thanks for the work Pataskala, analyzing what you have...

76 Slots available
73 Eligible Teams (71, but guaranteed to be 73)
14 Teams who could become eligible

Teams who are probably in (3):

Tenn (5-6): @Vandy.....-17
Fresno (5-6): Hawaii.....-12
Navy (5-5): @Sbama...-9 (and will be favored vs Army)

Gray area teams(3):

Temps (5-5): Cincy...+4, @Tulane...probably light favorite? (Losing 2 is feasible, threat for bid at 6-6)
UAB (5-6): @SMiss.....-4 (Could see them be preferred over Ohio)
Cal (5-6): BYU.....-4 (Definitely could use a Cal loss here)

Teams we probably don't need to worry about (7):

Akron (5-6): @Kent.....-5 (Think Ohio would be preferred, but go flashes)
ODU (5-6): @FAU.....+4 (even at 6 wins, seems unlikely)
Pitt (5-6): @MiamiF.....+10
UK (5-6): @Lville.....+14
OreSt (5-6): Ore.....+20
Mich (5-6): @O$U.....+20
OklaSt (5-6): @Okla.....Will be heavy underdog

Teams at 6-5 that we could jump (8):

Western Ky (+21 @ Marshall)
South Alabama (+9 vs Navy)
Middle Tenn (+3 @ UTEP)
UTEP (-3 vs MTSU)
Nevada (-10 @ UNLV)
App State (-15 vs Idaho)
Texas St (-13 @ Ga State)
Ark State (-21 vs New Mex St)

Even if the gray area teams get it done and are preferred to us, if all goes as planned for the "probably don't need to worry about" category, that is 7 teams added making 80 eligible teams, which results in only 4 eligible teams left out. I think we would jump WKU & S Alabama, who are likely to lose, which would leave just 2 teams to jump. And none of this is even taking into account teams that could decline an invitation, or 7 win teams that might get left out (it happened last year), etc.

I guess what I'm saying is it is very close.

Last Edited: 11/24/2014 9:19:18 AM by Andrew Ruck

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GoCats105
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 9:18:51 AM

I'm not putting any faith in that "probably don't need to worry about" list, especially with how erratic the ACC has been. Wouldn't be suprised to see Pitt beat Miami or Louisville lose to UK. And Corvallis, OR is a Bermuda Triangle. Weird stuff happens there all the time.

It will be interesting to see if the bowl would rather take a product that brings more fireworks to TV (ODU and WKU score lots of points) or a product that put more butts in seats at the stadium.

Last Edited: 11/24/2014 9:19:36 AM by GoCats105

Tyler
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 10:22:41 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

It will be interesting to see if the bowl would rather take a product that brings more fireworks to TV (ODU and WKU score lots of points) or a product that put more butts in seats at the stadium.

I think the bowls will select the teams that will draw the best TV ratings. ESPN owns a lot of the smaller bowls. They care way more about ad dollars than butts in the seats.

OhioCatFan
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 10:33:28 AM

Tyler wrote:

. . . I think the bowls will select the teams that will draw the best TV ratings. ESPN owns a lot of the smaller bowls. They care way more about ad dollars than butts in the seats.

I think that this has been increasingly true, and I'm not sure that I like this trend. It's what leads us to MACtion on weekday nights. ESPN could care less about fans in the stands, they want college football addicts to tune in the only game in town that night. We've sold our souls to ESPN. The bright spot here is that ESPN likes the way we draw viewers and they are likely to reward a MAC team over say a C-USA team with a similar record. In the ESPN owned bowls this could be a deciding factor as, I believe, it has been in the past.

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Casper71
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 10:38:18 AM

11/5/2014 Quote by Casper...

"Yep. I think the string ends this year. Gonna take a miracle to get us to a bowl now. I know, stranger things have happened."

Today, I am more convinced the string ends this year because of two things. First, we may not see 6 wins and second we are from the MAC and other 6-6 teams will be seen as having a better overall body of work. Hope I am wrong but doubt it.

On a positive note, I thought this team would go 4-8 so 5-7 or 6-6 is better than I thought it would be. So, for all my negativity, here's Congrats to the players and coaches no matter how things end up.

bobcat2nc
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 10:51:13 AM

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/23/72702...

Hopefully the above link works. This week's predictions specifically mentions Ohio at the end...Ohio out according to this prediction... :(

Miami Sucks

Bcat2
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 3:23:41 PM

Casper71 wrote:

You know I would love a bowl game, but, if the Bobcats finish the season playing good football, with scoreboard on Miami, without team issues, with NIU knowing they were damned lucky, with a team on the mend and without major role players needing surgery and returning starters two deep on the offensive line, well I can start brewing green tea for next year.

Last Edited: 11/24/2014 3:24:30 PM by Bcat2

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 8:15:29 PM

Bcat2--Did you know that video replays are widely available? This will give you a chance to watch last week's game vs. NIU. 'cause if you think that they were danged lucky to beat us, it's clear that you didn't watch the game.

Would you, for once in your life, acknowledge reality.

Did we play well? Pretty much. Was it our best performance of the year? Arguably. Are we improving? Yes.

But to assert that NIU was lucky is not at all a fair characterization. Watch their drive for their last td. That was not luck. That was the better team showing it.

colobobcat66
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RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility

Posted: 11/24/2014 10:08:01 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

I don't know if they were darn lucky, but this game could have gone either way. It was in doubt until the last 4 minutes and the Ohio fumble.
Why be so adamant that Ohio couldn't have won that game if a "lucky" play went our way.

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