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Kent 1-7 E. IL. 3-5 Idaho 1-7 Akron 4-4 Buffalo 3-5 Fiami 2-7 14-35 combined is pretty impressive, should be 2-300 fans at the bowl game. Back to Top GoCats105 General User Member Since: 1/31/2006 Location: Seattle, WA Post Count: 6,912 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 10/27/2014 7:04:26 PM  PhiTau74 wrote: Has any team in NCAA ever gone to a bowl at 6-6 without beating a team with a winning record? Kent 1-7 E. IL. 3-5 Idaho 1-7 Akron 4-4 Buffalo 3-5 Fiami 2-7 14-35 combined is pretty impressive, should be 2-300 fans at the bowl game. It probably happens more often than you think. Back to Top Pataskala General User Member Since: 7/8/2010 Location: At least six feet away from anybody else Post Count: 9,152 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 10/27/2014 8:56:16 PM  GoCats105 wrote: PhiTau74 wrote: Has any team in NCAA ever gone to a bowl at 6-6 without beating a team with a winning record? Kent 1-7 E. IL. 3-5 Idaho 1-7 Akron 4-4 Buffalo 3-5 Fiami 2-7 14-35 combined is pretty impressive, should be 2-300 fans at the bowl game. It probably happens more often than you think. Believe it or not, the first one I looked at from last year was Rutgers. Their six wins were Norfolk St (3-9), EMU (2-10), Arkansas (3-9), SMU (5-7), Temps (2-10) and USF (2-10); a combined 17-55, a .236 percentage -- in Knorr territory (11-35, .239). Makes our opponents' .286 look impressive. They lost to ND in the Pinstripe Bowl, 29-16. We will get by. We will get by. We will get by. We will survive. Back to Top GoCats105 General User Member Since: 1/31/2006 Location: Seattle, WA Post Count: 6,912 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 10/28/2014 7:14:48 AM  Pataskala wrote: GoCats105 wrote: PhiTau74 wrote: Has any team in NCAA ever gone to a bowl at 6-6 without beating a team with a winning record? Kent 1-7 E. IL. 3-5 Idaho 1-7 Akron 4-4 Buffalo 3-5 Fiami 2-7 14-35 combined is pretty impressive, should be 2-300 fans at the bowl game. It probably happens more often than you think. Believe it or not, the first one I looked at from last year was Rutgers. Their six wins were Norfolk St (3-9), EMU (2-10), Arkansas (3-9), SMU (5-7), Temps (2-10) and USF (2-10); a combined 17-55, a .236 percentage -- in Knorr territory (11-35, .239). Makes our opponents' .286 look impressive. They lost to ND in the Pinstripe Bowl, 29-16. My guess is this is probably the norm for most of those 6-6, 7-5 teams that make bowl games. Back to Top OUcats82 General User Member Since: 1/9/2005 Location: Cincinnati, OH Post Count: 1,827 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/3/2014 7:50:49 AM  Just purely my observation/opinion but it seems like if you are from a P5 and go at least 6-6 you are going to a bowl game. Some of the bowls we have been able to play in were a result of another conference not having enough teams to fill their tie-in slots if I am not mistaken. I think UCLA even got a waiver a few years ago because they finished the regular season below the .500 mark with a loss in the PAC 12 Championship Game. While it could be debated whether or not an average team with a .500 record deserves a bowl game, the games are a business of sorts and selling tickets, merchandise, etc. are a big part of it. Toss in the impact to the local economy of the host community-hotels, restaurants etc. and it adds up. Fan enthu$ia$m is usually more important than anything if and when the team meets the minimum requirements. A 6-6 Iowa State or 7-5 Minnesota will probably bring more fans than any MAC school in most cases. Last Edited: 11/3/2014 7:52:55 AM by OUcats82 Ohio-The State University Back to Top The Situation General User Member Since: 7/12/2010 Location: Columbus, OH Post Count: 957 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/3/2014 11:11:04 AM  PhiTau74 wrote: Has any team in NCAA ever gone to a bowl at 6-6 without beating a team with a winning record? Well only looking at last year: Colorado State, Navy, and Texas Tech all made bowl games with 7 wins. However, none of those wins were against teams with winning records. Five (5) teams ended the regular season 6-6 with only one (1) win vs a winning team. And eleven (11) other teams ended the regular season with more than 6 wins but only one (1) win vs a winning team. Those eleven include teams like 9-3 Miami (FL), 10-2 Ball State, and 9-2 Cincinnati. Back to Top Pataskala General User Member Since: 7/8/2010 Location: At least six feet away from anybody else Post Count: 9,152 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/3/2014 4:42:17 PM  As I recall, Army and Navy have to win six by the first weekend in December (when the conference championships are played) in order to be bowl eligible because the Army-Navy game is the weekend after bowl bids are announced (this year, bids come out Dec 6 and the game is Dec 13). If that's the case, Army will not be bowl eligible this year because they already have six losses and at best they'll be 5-6 when bids come out. I think either MWC or CUSA is the primary backup if Army can't get in, but that might affect other openings for the MAC. Navy at 4-5 also might not get to eligibility in time. They have Ga Southern (7-2) and South Bama (5-3) coming up. I think they have to win both. We will get by. We will get by. We will get by. We will survive. Back to Top Maryland Bobcat General User Member Since: 12/28/2004 Location: Annapolis, MD Post Count: 167 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/4/2014 12:33:46 PM  Pataskala wrote: As I recall, Army and Navy have to win six by the first weekend in December (when the conference championships are played) in order to be bowl eligible because the Army-Navy game is the weekend after bowl bids are announced (this year, bids come out Dec 6 and the game is Dec 13). If that's the case, Army will not be bowl eligible this year because they already have six losses and at best they'll be 5-6 when bids come out. I think either MWC or CUSA is the primary backup if Army can't get in, but that might affect other openings for the MAC. Navy at 4-5 also might not get to eligibility in time. They have Ga Southern (7-2) and South Bama (5-3) coming up. I think they have to win both. This is not the case (at least not for Navy). My wife works for USNA, and will be traveling to San Diego for the bowl game this year if they win 6. The countdown is on, and I can assure you it includes the Army game. With four wins Navy must win two of the final three against Georgia Southern, South Alabama and Army. Last Edited: 11/4/2014 12:42:48 PM by Maryland Bobcat Back to Top OhioCatFan General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Athens, OH Post Count: 14,016 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/4/2014 1:22:07 PM  Maryland Bobcat wrote: Pataskala wrote: As I recall, Army and Navy have to win six by the first weekend in December (when the conference championships are played) in order to be bowl eligible because the Army-Navy game is the weekend after bowl bids are announced (this year, bids come out Dec 6 and the game is Dec 13). If that's the case, Army will not be bowl eligible this year because they already have six losses and at best they'll be 5-6 when bids come out. I think either MWC or CUSA is the primary backup if Army can't get in, but that might affect other openings for the MAC. Navy at 4-5 also might not get to eligibility in time. They have Ga Southern (7-2) and South Bama (5-3) coming up. I think they have to win both. This is not the case (at least not for Navy). My wife works for USNA, and will be traveling to San Diego for the bowl game this year if they win 6. The countdown is on, and I can assure you it includes the Army game. With four wins Navy must win two of the final three against Georgia Southern, South Alabama and Army. Go Navy! The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA "It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right." Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org Back to Top UpSan Bobcat General User Member Since: 8/30/2005 Location: Upper Sandusky, OH Post Count: 3,789 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 8:37:42 AM  Maryland Bobcat wrote: Pataskala wrote: As I recall, Army and Navy have to win six by the first weekend in December (when the conference championships are played) in order to be bowl eligible because the Army-Navy game is the weekend after bowl bids are announced (this year, bids come out Dec 6 and the game is Dec 13). If that's the case, Army will not be bowl eligible this year because they already have six losses and at best they'll be 5-6 when bids come out. I think either MWC or CUSA is the primary backup if Army can't get in, but that might affect other openings for the MAC. Navy at 4-5 also might not get to eligibility in time. They have Ga Southern (7-2) and South Bama (5-3) coming up. I think they have to win both. This is not the case (at least not for Navy). My wife works for USNA, and will be traveling to San Diego for the bowl game this year if they win 6. The countdown is on, and I can assure you it includes the Army game. With four wins Navy must win two of the final three against Georgia Southern, South Alabama and Army. The MAC is the backup to Navy in this bowl game. If Navy is not bowl-eligible, the MAC will send a team, assuming it has enough to do so. Back to Top GoCats105 General User Member Since: 1/31/2006 Location: Seattle, WA Post Count: 6,912 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 10:10:38 AM  UpSan Bobcat wrote: Maryland Bobcat wrote: Pataskala wrote: As I recall, Army and Navy have to win six by the first weekend in December (when the conference championships are played) in order to be bowl eligible because the Army-Navy game is the weekend after bowl bids are announced (this year, bids come out Dec 6 and the game is Dec 13). If that's the case, Army will not be bowl eligible this year because they already have six losses and at best they'll be 5-6 when bids come out. I think either MWC or CUSA is the primary backup if Army can't get in, but that might affect other openings for the MAC. Navy at 4-5 also might not get to eligibility in time. They have Ga Southern (7-2) and South Bama (5-3) coming up. I think they have to win both. This is not the case (at least not for Navy). My wife works for USNA, and will be traveling to San Diego for the bowl game this year if they win 6. The countdown is on, and I can assure you it includes the Army game. With four wins Navy must win two of the final three against Georgia Southern, South Alabama and Army. The MAC is the backup to Navy in this bowl game. If Navy is not bowl-eligible, the MAC will send a team, assuming it has enough to do so. The MAC has met their quota as of last night (5) and now everyone else is just cream cheese. Back to Top Casper71 General User Member Since: 12/1/2006 Post Count: 2,895 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 12:10:45 PM  Yep. I think the string ends this year. Gonna take a miracle to get us to a bowl now. I know, stranger things have happened. Back to Top UpSan Bobcat General User Member Since: 8/30/2005 Location: Upper Sandusky, OH Post Count: 3,789 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 2:17:49 PM  Casper71 wrote: Yep. I think the string ends this year. Gonna take a miracle to get us to a bowl now. I know, stranger things have happened. I think Ohio gets in one if it gets to six wins. The first five primary bids are accounted for with bowl-eligible MAC teams but I'm almost sure one, if not two, of the secondary bowls will have spots open for the MAC. I doubt any of the other MAC schools get more than six wins. So, win 2 of final 3 and I think Ohio will have a spot. But I'm far from certain Ohio will do that. Lose tonight and I'd say highly unlikely. Win and I'd say there's a very good chance. Back to Top L.C. General User Member Since: 8/31/2005 Location: United States Post Count: 10,064 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 3:46:33 PM  Per Team Rankings, http://tinyurl.com/l9b3zn5 For teams already bowl eligible, the expected wins, and chances of winning the MACC: Toledo - 8.1, 47.5% NIU - 8.1, 7.0% WMU - 8.1, 4.9% BGSU - 7.9, 39.7% CMU - 7.3, .3% For teams not yet bowl eligible, the chance of bowl eligibility: Akron - 67.0% Ohio - 47.6% Ball State - 42.4% Buffalo - 29.5% “We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus Back to Top Maryland Bobcat General User Member Since: 12/28/2004 Location: Annapolis, MD Post Count: 167 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 4:49:05 PM  UpSan Bobcat wrote: Maryland Bobcat wrote: Pataskala wrote: As I recall, Army and Navy have to win six by the first weekend in December (when the conference championships are played) in order to be bowl eligible because the Army-Navy game is the weekend after bowl bids are announced (this year, bids come out Dec 6 and the game is Dec 13). If that's the case, Army will not be bowl eligible this year because they already have six losses and at best they'll be 5-6 when bids come out. I think either MWC or CUSA is the primary backup if Army can't get in, but that might affect other openings for the MAC. Navy at 4-5 also might not get to eligibility in time. They have Ga Southern (7-2) and South Bama (5-3) coming up. I think they have to win both. This is not the case (at least not for Navy). My wife works for USNA, and will be traveling to San Diego for the bowl game this year if they win 6. The countdown is on, and I can assure you it includes the Army game. With four wins Navy must win two of the final three against Georgia Southern, South Alabama and Army. The MAC is the backup to Navy in this bowl game. If Navy is not bowl-eligible, the MAC will send a team, assuming it has enough to do so. It won't be easy for Navy. They will beat Army, but Ga Southern and S. Alabama are no pushovers. The Jaguars gave Navy a good game last year in Annapolis. I still think they win one of those. Back to Top OUbobcat9092 General User Member Since: 12/28/2004 Location: Fairfax, VA Post Count: 1,128 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 11:31:19 PM  L.C. wrote: Per Team Rankings, http://tinyurl.com/l9b3zn5 For teams already bowl eligible, the expected wins, and chances of winning the MACC: Toledo - 8.1, 47.5% NIU - 8.1, 7.0% WMU - 8.1, 4.9% BGSU - 7.9, 39.7% CMU - 7.3, .3% For teams not yet bowl eligible, the chance of bowl eligibility: Akron - 67.0% Ohio - 47.6% Ball State - 42.4% Buffalo - 29.5% Chances of Buffalo and Ball State to be bowl eligible, now 0% Bring Back Men's Track & Field Back to Top mf279801 General User Member Since: 8/6/2010 Location: Newark, DE Post Count: 2,452 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 11:38:05 PM  OUbobcat9092 wrote: L.C. wrote: Per Team Rankings, http://tinyurl.com/l9b3zn5 For teams already bowl eligible, the expected wins, and chances of winning the MACC: Toledo - 8.1, 47.5% NIU - 8.1, 7.0% WMU - 8.1, 4.9% BGSU - 7.9, 39.7% CMU - 7.3, .3% For teams not yet bowl eligible, the chance of bowl eligibility: Akron - 67.0% Ohio - 47.6% Ball State - 42.4% Buffalo - 29.5% Chances of Buffalo and Ball State to be bowl eligible, now 0% Oh yeah! I forgot that BOTH buffalo and ball state played 2 FCS teams. Buffalo beat 2 FCS teams. Since only one of those victories count for bowl eligibility, they would have had to win 7 total games (which they are now unable to do). Ball State, however, only beat 1 FCS team (they beat Colgate and lost to Indiana State). If I remember the rules correctly, they only need 6 wins (1 FCS win + 5 FBS wins), which means that they still have a small theoretical chance of becoming bowl eligible. I don't think that they will do so, but there is still a chance Back to Top Campus Flow General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Alexandria, VA Post Count: 4,952 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 11:53:20 PM  Its not about the raw number of eligible teams. It depends on where the openings are. SEC is on pace for 4 schools in a New Years 6 bowl. PAC-12 two. Big XII also two. Marshal takes a New Years bowl and that would open up a spot in one of the CUSA games. We are on pace to finish the 6th or 7th best MAC team so we need an at-large opening somewhere. Other non-power leagues are not on pace to have any surplus teams. PAC-12 will have a few extra teams. Won't know for sure until after the championship games are played and the New Years games are picked if something is open. Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended 2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round 2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl 2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086 Back to Top Campus Flow General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Alexandria, VA Post Count: 4,952 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/5/2014 11:58:57 PM  UpSan Bobcat wrote: Casper71 wrote: Yep. I think the string ends this year. Gonna take a miracle to get us to a bowl now. I know, stranger things have happened. I think Ohio gets in one if it gets to six wins. The first five primary bids are accounted for with bowl-eligible MAC teams but I'm almost sure one, if not two, of the secondary bowls will have spots open for the MAC. I doubt any of the other MAC schools get more than six wins. So, win 2 of final 3 and I think Ohio will have a spot. But I'm far from certain Ohio will do that. Lose tonight and I'd say highly unlikely. Win and I'd say there's a very good chance. Akron could get to 7 wins. They finish with Kent, UMass and Buffalo. They aren't playing that well now so I doubt the win all 3. If we tie Akron at 6-6 we get the nod because of better attendance as we did over Toledo last year. We beat them during the season. Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended 2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round 2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl 2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086 Back to Top UpSan Bobcat General User Member Since: 8/30/2005 Location: Upper Sandusky, OH Post Count: 3,789 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/6/2014 9:34:44 AM  L.C. wrote: Per Team Rankings, http://tinyurl.com/l9b3zn5 For teams already bowl eligible, the expected wins, and chances of winning the MACC: Toledo - 8.1, 47.5% NIU - 8.1, 7.0% WMU - 8.1, 4.9% BGSU - 7.9, 39.7% CMU - 7.3, .3% For teams not yet bowl eligible, the chance of bowl eligibility: Akron - 67.0% Ohio - 47.6% Ball State - 42.4% Buffalo - 29.5% Ohio now has about a 70 percent chance to win at least one of its last two games. Akron has only about a 25 percent chance to win out. The odds are pretty good that the Bobcats become bowl eligible and finish better than or tied with Akron, and Ohio would almost certainly get a bowl bid over Akron in that case. I still think there's a good chance that both will get into bowls if they get bowl eligible because I think the MAC has enough connections and there simply are that many bowls. Back to Top C Money General User Member Since: 8/28/2010 Post Count: 3,420 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/6/2014 12:26:53 PM  Uncle Wes wrote: Akron could get to 7 wins. They finish with Kent, UMass and Buffalo. They aren't playing that well now so I doubt the win all 3. If we tie Akron at 6-6 we get the nod because of better attendance as we did over Toledo last year. We beat them during the season. I'm calling an Akron loss to UMass....as weird as it sounds, I really think we dodged a bullet missing UMass this year. Back to Top L.C. General User Member Since: 8/31/2005 Location: United States Post Count: 10,064 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/6/2014 8:42:24 PM  Updated numbers, per Team Rankings, http://tinyurl.com/l9b3zn5 For teams already bowl eligible, the expected wins, and chances of winning the MACC: Toledo - 8.0, 42.4% NIU - 8.7, 12.4% WMU - 8.1, 4.2% BGSU - 7.9, 40.4% CMU - 7.3, .3% For teams not yet bowl eligible, the chance of bowl eligibility: Akron - 68.2% Ohio - 69.1% Ball State - 15.8% “We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus Back to Top Pataskala General User Member Since: 7/8/2010 Location: At least six feet away from anybody else Post Count: 9,152 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/7/2014 10:47:14 PM  Looking for a diversion during the sloppy Memphis-Temps game tonight, so I totaled up the teams that are in, the teams likely to be in (not yet in but at .500 or above) and the other teams that are still alive (less than seven losses but under .500). With 38 bowls (not counting the national championship game), there are 76 bowl slots. Coming into the weekend, tho, there are only 74 teams that are either in or likely to be in. That means at least two of the below .500 teams have to get bowl eligible so that all the slots are filled without dipping into the 5-7 teams. There are ten 4-5 teams in the "P"5 conferences and three in the G5s. I think the process to fill bowl slots that the NCAA came up with two years ago is still in place, so bowl eligible teams fill slots first (subject to back-up agreements) before 5-7 teams are taken. 6-6 might get us to a bowl, but 7-5 would improve our chances. We will get by. We will get by. We will get by. We will survive. Back to Top UpSan Bobcat General User Member Since: 8/30/2005 Location: Upper Sandusky, OH Post Count: 3,789 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/9/2014 10:55:19 AM  Pataskala wrote: Looking for a diversion during the sloppy Memphis-Temps game tonight, so I totaled up the teams that are in, the teams likely to be in (not yet in but at .500 or above) and the other teams that are still alive (less than seven losses but under .500). With 38 bowls (not counting the national championship game), there are 76 bowl slots. Coming into the weekend, tho, there are only 74 teams that are either in or likely to be in. That means at least two of the below .500 teams have to get bowl eligible so that all the slots are filled without dipping into the 5-7 teams. There are ten 4-5 teams in the "P"5 conferences and three in the G5s. I think the process to fill bowl slots that the NCAA came up with two years ago is still in place, so bowl eligible teams fill slots first (subject to back-up agreements) before 5-7 teams are taken. 6-6 might get us to a bowl, but 7-5 would improve our chances. I think you're right on that. I think 6-6 does get Ohio a bowl. First, I think as long as Ohio gets to 6-6, it likely will be sixth in the MAC pecking order, and I think with the agreements the MAC has, at least six will get in that way. There are five primary agreements and three possible secondary agreements, including one that is actually backup for three bowls. I can't imagine that at least one of those doesn't end up with a spot open. And then, even if that does happen, as Pataskala pointed out, there's a lot of bowls across the country that might have trouble filling their primary or secondary agreements. Back to Top Victory General User Member Since: 3/10/2012 Post Count: 1,876 Status: Offline     RE: The Chase for Bowl Eligibility    Posted: 11/9/2014 1:59:09 PM  I'm doing a bit of probability calculations this morning with some predictive computer rankings. I get that 58 is the most probable number of teams with 7 or more wins. The most probable number of eligible teams is 77 with 78 just a hair more probable than 76. This is a list of teams with a better than 50/50 chance of eligibility but with 6-6 being the most likely eligible record. Texas-El Paso Tennessee Temple Brigham Young Penn State Stanford South Alabama Texas State North Carolina State California Rutgers San Diego State Akron Ohio Alabama-Birmingham Virginia Tech Western Kentucky Texas Michigan It depends on what bowls with what contracts end up free but I'm guessing tht without looking at that part of it but with just looking at the way these things have worked in the past I'd think Ohio, Akron, Texas State and South Alabama are the most likely not to get picked. 6-6 would be putting your bowl chances on a razor's edge. We would be watching the last weekend hoping every 5-6 team loses. 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