 |
L.C.
General User
Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,064
Status: Offline
|
|
|
| Prediction for this week |
|
|
Posted: 9/15/2014 7:03:45 PM |
| |
I will make an easy prediction. I predict that Idaho gets a heavy load of AJ this week. In looking at the rushing stats thus far this year, on a game by game basis, the average yards/carry by game for each running back are:
Daz 3.6, 3.1, 3.6 = 3.4 yards/carry for the season
AJ 4.7, 4.0, 9.3 = 6.3 yards/carry for the season
Brown 4.6, n/a, 1.8 = 3.2 yards/carry for the season
White 3.8, n/a, n/a
Edmond 2.5, -1, 2.0 = .7 yards/carry for the season
In all three games so far, AJ has averaged more yards/carry than any of the other ball carriers. Is is just because his carries tend to be late in the games? Maybe. I think he deserves some carries early so that we can find out, especially since he has yet to turn the ball over.
If the running game can average over 4-5 yards/carry, the passing game will open up, and then the offense will look fine. Time for OUTM? For what it's worth, here are some comparison numbers for prior running backs only:
2005 - McRae 5.5, Average all running backs 5.5
2006 - McRae 4.7, Average all running backs 4.5
2007 - McRae 4.9, Average all running backs 4.9
2008 - Harden 5.2, Garrett 4.5, Davidson 3.9, Avg all 4.6
2009 - Garrett 4.9, Davidson 3.9, Harden 3.9, Avg all 4.2
2010 - Harden 4.8, Davidson 4.0, Boykin 5.2, Avg all 4.3
2011 - Harden 5.3, Blankenship 5.0, Boykin 4.2, Avg all 4.9
2012 - Blankenship 5.1, Boykin 6.0, Daz 6.3, Avg all 5.3
2013 - Blankenship 4.5, Boykin 3.9, Daz 5.6, Edmond 3.1, Avg 4.3
2014 - Avg so far 3.6
This wasn't what I expected to find. I see that the average was falling steadily from 2005 until Ohio changed the offense to a one-back set, after which the average actually went up significantly. Thus, an effective passing attack can open up the run, just as an effective run can open up the passes.
In any case, I expect Ohio's offense to continue to improve this year, but I think it's possible that we'll see AJ as the "wear them down" back, and Daz as the change of pace back. Daz was very effective in the change of pace role in 2012 and 2013.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
|
|
|
|
