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Topic:  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5

Topic:  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
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herdfan07
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 5:05:47 PM 
Thats fine but the poster came right at me on that like I was preaching it. I have great respect for ohio have been here before the 44-7 slaying that happened to marshall. I've been very realistic and i never predict games. I've worked too long in college football to know not to predict anything.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 5:47:23 PM 
Your posts have been fine, and respectful, and raise the impression that others have of Marshall. I think he just confused you with someone else. Thanks for participating in the discussion.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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goherd25
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 8:02:19 PM 
L.C. wrote:
herdfan07 wrote:
...I've never said we were better then UK..so please point where I said that... I also never said miami was good... again point that out.....

Other herd fans have said those things, however. Unfortunately on message boards, it's easy to confuse which fan said what, and I'm sure it was unintentional. Here are some quotes from another Marshall fan:

The point with regard to UK was from this thread:
goherd25 wrote:
Are you serious? Yes Marshall is better than Kentucky. Kentucky isnt in any polls that i am aware of. Has never had a bit of attention. There is a reason for that.


goherd25 wrote:
...And to the guy who said no evidence about marshall being better than UK.... handicappers are pretty damn good at their predictions. A 16 point dog at UK and 20.5 at marshall says they think we are 4.5 points better than UK.


As for Miami being good, there was a whole other thread, "Maimi is now the MAC East favorite according to Marshall fans":
http://www.bobcatattack.com/messageboard/topic.asp?FromPa...




I stand by the fact that we are better than kentucky. We would wipe the turf with them.
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penn2moss
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 8:52:16 PM 
our average margin of victory over the last 9 games at home is like 40. -20 is pretty low.
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.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 9:13:11 PM 
Marshall's last nine wins at home have been by an average of 32.4 points per game. Just so we have the actual number at our disposal.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 10:42:22 PM 
Delete Pending wrote:
Marshall's last nine wins at home have been by an average of 32.4 points per game. Just so we have the actual number at our disposal.

Considering that Ohio is likely to be bowl-eligible this year, that isn't very useful data because it includes things like wins over bad teams, and FCS teams. What is their record at home against bowl-eligible teams or FBS teams with a winning record?

Over the last three years, Marshall is 3-4 at home against such teams:
2013 ECU 59-28 win
2013 UTSA 34-10 win (winning record, but not eligible for bowl)
2012 UCF 17-54 loss
2012 Tulsa 38-45 loss
2012 Ohio 24-27 loss
2011 S.Miss 26-20 win
2011 V. Tech 10-30 loss
Average score 29.7 to 30.6


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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penn2moss
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 11:02:04 PM 
You are going back to 2011? That is real helpful.

We were scary good at home last year. As bad as we beat ECU, we had a punt return TD and other huge plays called back. Was the best game a Herd team has played in a decade.

UTSA has one heck of a FB team and that game was over after the first quarter when we jumped out to a 17-0 lead.

The Herd may lose this year. However, it will not be at home.

This isn't Kent state, we will have 35k there Saturday. It is going to be one heck of an atmosphere.
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perimeterpost
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 11:41:15 PM 
Here's a look at Marshall's scoring vs Ohio as compared to other teams on their schedule. Notice that Ohio's defense has held Marshall's offense to significantly less points than their season's average for the last 3 years, and even in the years when Marshall won their point totals were next to lowest of any of their other wins. I'm confident Ohio's defense will continue this trend on Saturday, it will be up to Ohio's offense to score enough to get the W.

2013
61 W
59 W
56 W
55 W
52 W
49 L
48 W
45 W
34 W
31 W
31 L OHIO
24 W
24 L
21 L

2012
59 L
59 W
54 W
52 W
44 W
41 L
38 W
38 L
34 L
31 L
24 L OHIO
17 L

2011
59 W
34 W
28 L
26 W
24 W
23 W
20 W
17 W
17 L
13 L
10 L
07 L OHIO
06 L

2010
38 W
31 W
28 W
28 L
24 W OHIO
21 L
17 L
16 W
16 L
14 L
10 L
07 L

2009
34 W
31 W
31 W
27 W
27 W
21 W OHIO
21 L
20 L
20 L
17 W
17 L
10 L
07 L


MY STATE. MY TEAM.

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goherd25
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 11:41:20 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Delete Pending wrote:
Marshall's last nine wins at home have been by an average of 32.4 points per game. Just so we have the actual number at our disposal.

Considering that Ohio is likely to be bowl-eligible this year, that isn't very useful data because it includes things like wins over bad teams, and FCS teams. What is their record at home against bowl-eligible teams or FBS teams with a winning record?

Over the last three years, Marshall is 3-4 at home against such teams:
2013 ECU 59-28 win
2013 UTSA 34-10 win (winning record, but not eligible for bowl)
2012 UCF 17-54 loss
2012 Tulsa 38-45 loss
2012 Ohio 24-27 loss
2011 S.Miss 26-20 win
2011 V. Tech 10-30 loss
Average score 29.7 to 30.6


Lol. Everyone has bad teams etc they play at home. It all evens out and is a level playing field. Skew the numbers if you wish but Marshall has a .86 winning pct at home and thats the best in college football.
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Sony7
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/10/2014 11:41:41 PM 
Terd fans getting testy and it's only Wednesday. Must be getting nervous. Tic Toc. LOL


Go Bobcats!

SONY7

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C Money
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 7:28:42 AM 
goherd25 wrote:


Lol. Everyone has bad teams etc they play at home. It all evens out and is a level playing field. Skew the numbers if you wish but Marshall has a .86 winning pct at home and thats the best in college football.



Ummmm, no? That's only since Joan C. Edwards stadium opened in 1991, and includes a decade of I-AA competition.

Since joining I-A, Marshall is 80-21 at home, a .792 winning percentage. Pretty good, but still behind Boise State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, VaTech, Florida, Nebraska, Georgia, LSU, FSU, Wisconsin, Texas, Michigan, Troy, and Kansas State.

Since 2005, the time frame we're actually talking about in the thread, Marshall is 34-18 at home, a .654 winning percentage. Boise is tops, at 54-3, a .947 percentage. (Ohio is 37-15 at home, a .712 winning percentage).

But go on, keep living in 1999.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 8:40:28 AM 
penn2moss wrote:
You are going back to 2011? That is real helpful.
....

I just gave the raw data. It's up to you (and others) to interpret it. I think it is certainly more relevant than the data you gave. The data you gave was "our average margin of victory over the last 9 games at home is like 40". As Delete Pending pointed out, your data was wrong, and the actual number for the last 9 games is 32. What he didn't mention is that if you go back to 10 games, 11 games, or 12 games, the "average margin of victory" keeps going down, because 10, 11, and 12 were all losses. Thus, starting at "9 games" is a pretty arbitrary point, isn't it?

Even then, if you accept your arbitrary point in the middle of 2102 as the starting point, and move to the actual data, you find that your 9 game dataset includes wins against FCS Rhode Island, FCS Gardner-Webb, a Miami team that ended up 0-12, a Southern Miss team that finished 1-11, and a UAB team that finished 2-10, so more than half of your 9 games were against horrible teams. By specifically including these in your comparison example from which you are projecting the score for Ohio-Marshall, you are implicitly saying that you think Ohio is no better than these teams. I think you are wrong, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

goherd25 wrote:
Lol. Everyone has bad teams etc they play at home. It all evens out and is a level playing field. Skew the numbers if you wish but Marshall has a .86 winning pct at home and thats the best in college football.

Of course everyone has bad teams they play at home. What does that have to do with the point we are talking about? The question is, if you want to project how Marshall might do against Ohio from past games, which is more "skewed", using as a comparison point games against Rhode Island and Gardner-Webb, or using as a comparison point only games against other bowl eligible teams?

By the way, if you asked the same question about Ohio, here are the home games Ohio has had against bowl-eligible teams in the same time period:
2013 CMU 23-26 loss
2013 Marshall 34-31 win
2013 NTSU 27-21 win
2012 Bowling Green 14-26 loss
2011 Marshall 44-7 win
2011 Ball State 20-23 loss
2011 Temple 35-31 win
Ohio is 4-7, not significantly different from Marshall. I think that's pretty normal. The idea is that at home you want to win a little better than half of the games against good competition, and all the games against bad competition.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 9:02:39 AM 
herdfan07 wrote:
Sony7 wrote:
Yes, Marshall has a secret playbook they only bring out for OHIO. How did that work out for you the last three times we played and beat you? Hmmmm?


Please god tell me you didnt recieve your degree from ohio.


You must have a degree in English from Marshall. Great command of the English language for sure.
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.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 10:12:13 AM 
L.C. wrote:
Delete Pending wrote:
Marshall's last nine wins at home have been by an average of 32.4 points per game. Just so we have the actual number at our disposal.

Considering that Ohio is likely to be bowl-eligible this year, that isn't very useful data because it includes things like wins over bad teams, and FCS teams. What is their record at home against bowl-eligible teams or FBS teams with a winning record?


I was just trying to show the disparity between "like 40" and the actual number. Eight points a game is a lot. Especially to Las Vegas.

But they have been quite impressive at home since Ohio went in to the Joan and beat them two years ago.
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herdfan07
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 10:23:32 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
herdfan07 wrote:
Sony7 wrote:
Yes, Marshall has a secret playbook they only bring out for OHIO. How did that work out for you the last three times we played and beat you? Hmmmm?


Please god tell me you didnt recieve your degree from ohio.


You must have a degree in English from Marshall. Great command of the English language for sure.


Sorry, Im typing this on a mobile phone. Also, I received a degree in accounting at Marshall. I will be the first to say I was very lucky to get a passing grade in both of my english classes. I expected grammar smack since ohio is a liberal arts school.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 10:33:37 AM 
herdfan07 wrote:
. . . I expected grammar smack since ohio has one of the ten best journalism schools in the nation.


Corrected that for you! :-)


The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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herdfan07
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 10:55:41 AM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
herdfan07 wrote:
. . . I expected grammar smack since ohio has one of the ten best journalism schools in the nation.


Corrected that for you! :-)



Thats way 2 long 2 type out

Last Edited: 9/11/2014 10:59:43 AM by herdfan07

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penn2moss
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 11:33:10 AM 
L.C. wrote:
penn2moss wrote:
You are going back to 2011? That is real helpful.
....

Even then, if you accept your arbitrary point in the middle of 2102 as the starting point, and move to the actual data, you find that your 9 game dataset includes wins against FCS Rhode Island, FCS Gardner-Webb, a Miami team that ended up 0-12, a Southern Miss team that finished 1-11, and a UAB team that finished 2-10, so more than half of your 9 games were against horrible teams. By specifically including these in your comparison example from which you are projecting the score for Ohio-Marshall, you are implicitly saying that you think Ohio is no better than these teams. I think you are wrong, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion.



I pointed out the bowl eligible teams from a year ago like you wanted to do so quit with your hand waving.

Our average margin of victory over bowl eligible teams a year ago was 27.5, nearly 4 TDs.

Good luck this weekend, your going to need it.
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Recovering Journalist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 12:02:41 PM 
penn2moss wrote:
L.C. wrote:
penn2moss wrote:
You are going back to 2011? That is real helpful.
....

Even then, if you accept your arbitrary point in the middle of 2102 as the starting point, and move to the actual data, you find that your 9 game dataset includes wins against FCS Rhode Island, FCS Gardner-Webb, a Miami team that ended up 0-12, a Southern Miss team that finished 1-11, and a UAB team that finished 2-10, so more than half of your 9 games were against horrible teams. By specifically including these in your comparison example from which you are projecting the score for Ohio-Marshall, you are implicitly saying that you think Ohio is no better than these teams. I think you are wrong, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion.



I pointed out the bowl eligible teams from a year ago like you wanted to do so quit with your hand waving.

Our average margin of victory over bowl eligible teams a year ago was 27.5, nearly 4 TDs.

Good luck this weekend, your going to need it.


*you're

Pointless trash talk is more palatable with good grammar.
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penn2moss
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 4:47:33 PM 
Recovering Journalist wrote:
penn2moss wrote:
L.C. wrote:
penn2moss wrote:
You are going back to 2011? That is real helpful.
....

Even then, if you accept your arbitrary point in the middle of 2102 as the starting point, and move to the actual data, you find that your 9 game dataset includes wins against FCS Rhode Island, FCS Gardner-Webb, a Miami team that ended up 0-12, a Southern Miss team that finished 1-11, and a UAB team that finished 2-10, so more than half of your 9 games were against horrible teams. By specifically including these in your comparison example from which you are projecting the score for Ohio-Marshall, you are implicitly saying that you think Ohio is no better than these teams. I think you are wrong, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion.



I pointed out the bowl eligible teams from a year ago like you wanted to do so quit with your hand waving.

Our average margin of victory over bowl eligible teams a year ago was 27.5, nearly 4 TDs.

Good luck this weekend, your going to need it.


*you're

Pointless trash talk is more palatable with good grammar.


Thank-you professor, The Herd are ready for it's best game of the year. We win 0-45 so your in trouble. There ready to play.
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JSF
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 4:51:37 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
herdfan07 wrote:
. . . I expected grammar smack because Ohio has one of the 10 best journalism schools in the nation.


Corrected that for you! :-)


AP style'd for you.


"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 5:45:50 PM 
JSF wrote:
OhioCatFan wrote:
herdfan07 wrote:
. . . I expected grammar smack because Ohio has one of the 10 best journalism schools in the nation.


Corrected that for you! :-)


AP style'd for you.


Thanks. I was trying to keep as much of the original as possible, so I only corrected factual information. Team editing. It's a BA varsity sport! :-)


The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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goherd25
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 7:18:56 PM 
C Money wrote:
goherd25 wrote:


Lol. Everyone has bad teams etc they play at home. It all evens out and is a level playing field. Skew the numbers if you wish but Marshall has a .86 winning pct at home and thats the best in college football.



Ummmm, no? That's only since Joan C. Edwards stadium opened in 1991, and includes a decade of I-AA competition.

Since joining I-A, Marshall is 80-21 at home, a .792 winning percentage. Pretty good, but still behind Boise State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, VaTech, Florida, Nebraska, Georgia, LSU, FSU, Wisconsin, Texas, Michigan, Troy, and Kansas State.

Since 2005, the time frame we're actually talking about in the thread, Marshall is 34-18 at home, a .654 winning percentage. Boise is tops, at 54-3, a .947 percentage. (Ohio is 37-15 at home, a .712 winning percentage).

But go on, keep living in 1999.


Exactly. Since the stadium opened. Encompasses all home games played there. And my numbers are correct. You cant partition it up or just take a certain sample size. Youll get a taste of it in a couple days.
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C Money
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 7:45:49 PM 
goherd25 wrote:
Skew the numbers if you wish but Marshall has a .86 winning pct at home and thats the best in college football.


goherd25 wrote:
Exactly. Since the stadium opened.


goherd25 wrote:
You cant partition it up or just take a certain sample size.




http://youtu.be/5hfYJsQAhl0

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PhiTau74
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  Message Not Read  RE: Early line Marshall -20.5
   Posted: 9/11/2014 7:56:47 PM 



goherd25 wrote:
...And to the guy who said no evidence about marshall being better than UK.... handicappers are pretty damn good at their predictions. A 16 point dog at UK and 20.5 at marshall says they think we are 4.5 points better than UK.


This must be from a Logic course taught at Marshall. Sagarin says KY 72.9 and Marshall 71.2 so no it's not Marshall plus 4.5. Handicappers are great, South Carolina 10.5 better than Texas A&M and Texas A&M won by 24. Kent 3.0 better than Ohio and Ohio wins by 3 with 4 second half turnovers. How can you possibly ascertain Marshall is 4.5 better than KY. Spreads are not static and remain the same to judge yourself against another team. Just throw out all the bad handicaps and go with the ones that fit your scenario I guess.
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