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Topic: How Often Do Underdogs Win Outright?

Topic: How Often Do Underdogs Win Outright?

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Ted Thompson
Administrator

Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: MAC Play
Post Count: 7,395

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How Often Do Underdogs Win Outright?

Posted: 7/31/2014 3:12:46 PM

Interesting article from Phil Steele: http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/JULY14/DBJuly31.html

The math:

1997-2013
Favorite of	# of Games	Lost Outright	%
31.5 or more pts	756	7	0.93%
24.5-31	902	36	3.99%
17.5-24	1522	97	6.37%
14.5-17	984	127	12.91%
10.5-14	1656	346	20.89%
7.5-10	1543	399	25.86%
3.5-7	2854	997	34.93%
3 or less	1890	892	47.20%

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brucecuth
General User

Member Since: 12/21/2004
Post Count: 1,794

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RE: How Often Do Underdogs Win Outright?

Posted: 7/31/2014 5:07:18 PM

Interesting stats, particularly for those of us who like to wager. Kind of illustrates what I was taught long ago: When betting underdogs, don't simply take the points. Split off maybe 25% of your wager and make a second bet on the underdog to win outright (the moneyline). You'll make money over time on these bets because of bigger payoffs for outright wins.

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,065

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RE: How Often Do Underdogs Win Outright?

Posted: 7/31/2014 6:55:49 PM

Those numbers are about what I would expect, but I see one curious thing about them. If you chart them, you don't get a nice neat curve, as you would expect. In particular, the odds of the underdog winning when the point spread is in the 14.5-24 point range is somewhat lower than you'd think from the other points on the curve, or alternately, the odds of the underdog winning are somewhat higher than you'd expect from 10.5-14 and from 24-31.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Business_Cat
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Member Since: 11/17/2011
Post Count: 251

Status: Offline

RE: How Often Do Underdogs Win Outright?

Posted: 7/31/2014 8:28:44 PM

I'd also wager that the majority of the "underdog" teams are also the 'away' team. There are statistical advantages for the home team in nearly all sports. It'd be interesting to see the outcomes of games where the money team is away.

You know what Frank Solich likes most about coaching in the MAC? While he gets older, his coaching competition stays the same age, man.

The real O-H-I-O

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