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Topic:  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Topic:  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/17/2020 10:45:00 PM 
Still waiting for an answer from any of our three - yes three - two OU grads and a carpetbagger - to this question.

For the past 9 years, the average number of flu deaths was 37,000 WITH an annual flu shot. We will blow by that number but more importantly, had we not taken the measures that we did, who knows what the total number of deaths would be. This whole thing begs this question - what is or would have been an acceptable number of deaths?
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/17/2020 11:18:24 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
Still waiting for an answer from any of our three - yes three - two OU grads and a carpetbagger - to this question.

For the past 9 years, the average number of flu deaths was 37,000 WITH an annual flu shot. We will blow by that number but more importantly, had we not taken the measures that we did, who knows what the total number of deaths would be. This whole thing begs this question - what is or would have been an acceptable number of deaths?

The number of flu deaths this year was 24,000, and that was for a whole year. We have blown by that in just two months, and are currently getting close to 1/10 that number each day. Without mitigation, it would be a lot worse. Now people are going to point to the study out today and say "but the infection rate is actually 85x higher". Maybe it is, in which case, perhaps the deaths without mitigation would be in the hundreds of thousands, a big improvement over millions. Nevertheless, without mitigation it is clear that the death toll from this would be far, far, far higher than a regular flu.

As a warning though, consider that when people get immunity to other coronaviruses, the immunity is typically very short lived. Thus, if you get exposed to oc43 or 229e, you develop and immunity that typically lasts several months, but you can catch it again as soon as four months after the initial infection. If that is also true of COVID19, then the presence of a higher number of people who have been infected isn't particularly helpful.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#definition

For SARS the immunity lasted somewhat longer, but was gone within a few years. In any case, how long the immunity to Covid19 will last is an unknown.

Last Edited: 4/18/2020 1:36:00 AM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/18/2020 2:22:22 PM 
Jump in confirmed cases from 619 yesterday to 1081 today in Ohio.
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cbus cat fan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/18/2020 7:16:52 PM 
Coronavirus in Ohio prisons responsible for uptick in Ohio count. Marion and Pickaway counties have seen big upticks in their cases because they are releasing releasing counts from Ohio prisons. A few days ago, before they released these counts, Marion county had less than 40 cases, now it is 10x higher than that. However, as state official have indicated these cases are not being spread because they are confined to the respective correctional facilities.
https://www.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/17/co... /
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/18/2020 7:24:43 PM 
As I’ve watched many idiots on FB argue against the release of low level offenders from the system, with the argument that prisons are the safest place because they are confined. Is clearly a testimony to how stupid people are, thinking prisons are safe against a disaster that feast on overcrowding.
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cc-cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/18/2020 9:09:43 PM 
sniffle sniffle. poor Roger Stone. 😂
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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/19/2020 11:45:17 AM 
cbus cat fan wrote:
Coronavirus in Ohio prisons responsible for uptick in Ohio count. Marion and Pickaway counties have seen big upticks in their cases because they are releasing releasing counts from Ohio prisons. A few days ago, before they released these counts, Marion county had less than 40 cases, now it is 10x higher than that. However, as state official have indicated these cases are not being spread because they are confined to the respective correctional facilities.
https://www.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/17/co... /


Yep and as the infected guards come and go, so too does the virus into the general population some knowing they have it and some not.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/19/2020 1:54:27 PM 
cbus cat fan wrote:
Coronavirus in Ohio prisons responsible for uptick in Ohio count. Marion and Pickaway counties have seen big upticks in their cases because they are releasing releasing counts from Ohio prisons. A few days ago, before they released these counts, Marion county had less than 40 cases, now it is 10x higher than that. However, as state official have indicated these cases are not being spread because they are confined to the respective correctional facilities.
https://www.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/17/co... /


I'm confused. Isn't your entire stance since you joined the conversation about Covid here that it's not the threat experts made it out to be and things should be allowed to go back to normal? If that's the case, why does it matter if these cases are contained? The position you're advocating is one that advocates for uncontained spread.

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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/20/2020 10:57:49 AM 
Alan Swank wrote:
cbus cat fan wrote:
Coronavirus in Ohio prisons responsible for uptick in Ohio count. Marion and Pickaway counties have seen big upticks in their cases because they are releasing releasing counts from Ohio prisons. A few days ago, before they released these counts, Marion county had less than 40 cases, now it is 10x higher than that. However, as state official have indicated these cases are not being spread because they are confined to the respective correctional facilities.
https://www.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2020/04/17/co... /


Yep and as the infected guards come and go, so too does the virus into the general population some knowing they have it and some not.


I live in a neighboring county to Marion, and I personally know two people in my county who got it as employees of the Marion prison. I'd be almost certain there are others I don't know. There have only been 17 cases in Wyandot County, but I wonder how many are related to the prison, either directly or spread from the people who got it there.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/20/2020 11:56:13 PM 
I saw some data that makes me question the Stanford study. First, the accuracy of their test was questionable. They used a test made in China. A study in Denmark rated that particular test the least accurate of the tests they tried, with an accuracy of <90%. That is huge. Consider that if you test 1000 people, and 10 of them are infected. That would be a 1% infection rate. Now, if you are wrong on the 10% of the positives, the test might show 9 or 11. But what about the 990 that should be negative? It might show only 900 negatives, meaning you could show 100 positives (10 real ones, and 90 false positives), when the real number was only 10. I'm not sure that you can draw any reasonable conclusions without a more accurate test.

Next, consider the way they got people to test. They solicited them through Facebook. Might someone who wonders if they had Covid19 opt for the test? Very likely. So you end up with a self selected sample, most likely a group with a higher than typical chance of having been exposed to Covid19.

I'm sure that more people have had Covid than we know about. We can conclude that from data from places like Iceland where they did a lot of testing, or from the city of Vo, Italy. It would be nice if the real number is 50-85 times higher, but the Stanford study doesn't appear to sufficient to reach much of any conclusions.

As regards deaths, sometime this week we should hit two times the number of deaths from the flu this year (which killed 24,000). The IMHE model shows deaths vanishing after May 1. I hope that happens, but I am skeptical. Even then it doesn't address a second wave in the Fall. Flu plandemics normally kill a few in the Spring, then come back and kill more on the second wave, in the Fall. Will that also be true of Covid19? We'll have to wait and see, I guess.

Edit - Apparently for larger samples, the expected error of the test used by Stanford is more like +/- 2%. Still, if you are finding 2% positive, and the error is +/- 2%, the real infection rate is most likely in the 0-4% range. That error, combined with a non-random sample of people means that the Stanford "study" is a nice start, but not very convincing.

The good news is that if the real infection rate is 50x higher than previously know, the death rate is a lot lower, and that we are 1/20th of the way to herd immunity already. The bad news is that the R0 must be far higher than we knew, and it is going to be nearly impossible to avoid. Either way, buckle up for a year we won't forget (but won't want to remember).

Edit2 - There is another study out today with similar results. LA County found 4.1% of the people had antibodies, 28-55x higher than would be expected. The more studies that show this, the better. On the other hand, it is important to remember that when you are dealing with a low percent positive, the incidence of false positives is important. If a test gets 2% false positives, and you test 1000 people, none of whom are actually positive, you will get 2% positive. I don't know if they adjusted for that, but hopefully they did.

Last Edited: 4/21/2020 1:31:38 PM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/23/2020 4:33:24 PM 
Two new studies, one from the VA, and the other from France show no improvement from hydroxychloroquinone:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/new-french-study-hy...
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/21/more-death...

They weren't rigorous studies, and there is no evidence that zinc was administered along with the hydroxychloroquinone. I mention these because one of the plausible methodologies by which it might work, if it works, is by helping to get zinc into the cells, which would inhibit the virus. Nevertheless, these don't bode well for hydroxychloroquinone as a treatment.

Next there is remdesiver, which is still under patent to Gilead. A leaked study from Chicago had promising data for Remdesivir:
https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/16/212244...

Meanwhile, a study from China was accidentally released today that showed no promise for it:
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/04/23/Remdesivir-doe... /


Lots of other drugs are being tried, too, including drugs against hepatitis C, head lice, and HIV. Some of the ones being explored are ribavirin, lopinavir, ritonavir, Sofosbuvir, IDX-184, interferon-alpha 2b, and ivermectin. They are screening existing drugs, trying to find ones that are effective in vitro (in the test tube) at inhibiting SARS-Cov2. Then the next step to to find ones that are effective at a dose that can be tolerated, and then to test them in vivo. The whole process is dramatically accelerated due to the number of people dying daily.

Hopefully sooner rather than later something will prove effective.

Edit - This should go without saying, but, just as you should not take aquarium cleaner to fight coronavirus, you should not take ivermectin sold for treating worms in cattle. Nothing about either is a good idea:
https://www.aces.edu/blog/topics/farming/ivermectin-unpro... /

Edit2 - Remember one thing in looking at these studies. Any anti-viral is going to work best when given early, before the virus replicates. I have serious doubts that any drug will be found that is dramatically effective if given late. If you wait until the damage is done, it may be too late.

If you dig down into the VA study, and look only at patients given hydroxychloroquinone and azithromycin before needing ventilation, 82.2% were discharged while only 77.4% of those who were not recovered. 6.9% of that group needed ventilators, versus 14.1% of the control group. Both were positive results, but not statistically significant. To reach the overall conclusion that the death rate was higher, you have to include the group who were given hydroxychloroquinone after going on the ventilator. So...given early, it may have some benefit, but given late, it doesn't help, and may make things worse. That's consistent with other studies that I have seen.

Last Edited: 4/23/2020 5:21:07 PM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/23/2020 8:41:38 PM 
Georgia's governor certainly puts the goober in gubernatorial.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 7:49:48 AM 
New trials of injecting your self with disinfectant starting soon. That should show some promise.
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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 9:32:24 AM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
New trials of injecting your self with disinfectant starting soon. That should show some promise.


Not to mention the body getting probed with light sabers.

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 12:54:55 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
New trials of injecting your self with disinfectant starting soon. That should show some promise.


Not to mention the body getting probed with light sabers.

In fairness, they haven't tried the light sabers yet, but they're going to, right?


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 5:45:35 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Alan Swank wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
New trials of injecting your self with disinfectant starting soon. That should show some promise.


Not to mention the body getting probed with light sabers.

In fairness, they haven't tried the light sabers yet, but they're going to, right?


Yep. Pick your color - one for Dems, one for trumpsters and one for independents.

https://www.joissu.com/Light-Up-Space-Swords/productinfo/...
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 6:35:52 PM 
Nebraska cases up 99%
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 9:20:03 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Nebraska cases up 99%

Nebraska is having serious problems with meat packing plants, where the air is cold and dry. Their cases grew rapidly in Lexington, Grand Island, Crete, and Sioux City over the last week, all of which have packing plants. In addition, Nebraska is moving from 500 tests a day to 3000 tests a day, so I expect there to continue to be a lot of new cases detected in the next week just from the additional testing alone.

Food processors caused a surge of cases in South Dakota and Iowa recently as well. Was that the reason for the big jump in Ohio last week, too? It's starting to get to the point where I suppose they need to consider shutting down a lot of these plants. Unfortunately that would be hard on farmers/ranchers as hogs and cattle would have to be destroyed, as there would be nothing else to do with them. It would likely also lead to a nationwide food shortage later this year, so I hope it doesn't come to that.

Meanwhile, in the cities, and the small towns without packing plants, case growth is pretty moderate. Growth in those four counties with meat packing plants over the last week has been over 20% a day, while growth in the entire rest of the state, which includes the major cities, has been 5.7% a day. During the same time period Ohio has been 8.3%, and the national average has been 5.9%.

Last Edited: 4/24/2020 9:53:41 PM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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gedunkman
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 9:32:10 PM 
Here's the situation in Switzerland and how the country plans to reopen: In phase one, which begins in a few days, hair salons, cosmetic studios, doctors’ offices and physiotherapist practices, garden centers, and home improvement stores will all reopen. Then on 11 May 2020 (not yet confirmed) they will reopen primary schools (1st – 9th Grade here), and other shops including department stores, restaurants, and open-air markets. The last phase is projected to start on 8 June 2020 and will include the reopening of all remaining educational institutions, museums and zoos and libraries. I don't see why many states in the USA could not do as well in terms of a timeline. NY and NJ are, obviously exceptions. Those closest to the situation and on the ground, should make the call, not some distant WHO official, or expert on an internet board. (ha-ha)
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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 10:11:08 PM 
L.C. wrote:
BillyTheCat wrote:
Nebraska cases up 99%

Nebraska is having serious problems with meat packing plants, where the air is cold and dry. Their cases grew rapidly in Lexington, Grand Island, Crete, and Sioux City over the last week, all of which have packing plants. In addition, Nebraska is moving from 500 tests a day to 3000 tests a day, so I expect there to continue to be a lot of new cases detected in the next week just from the additional testing alone.

Food processors caused a surge of cases in South Dakota and Iowa recently as well. Was that the reason for the big jump in Ohio last week, too? It's starting to get to the point where I suppose they need to consider shutting down a lot of these plants. Unfortunately that would be hard on farmers/ranchers as hogs and cattle would have to be destroyed, as there would be nothing else to do with them. It would likely also lead to a nationwide food shortage later this year, so I hope it doesn't come to that.

Meanwhile, in the cities, and the small towns without packing plants, case growth is pretty moderate. Growth in those four counties with meat packing plants over the last week has been over 20% a day, while growth in the entire rest of the state, which includes the major cities, has been 5.7% a day. During the same time period Ohio has been 8.3%, and the national average has been 5.9%.



The big growth in Ohio was in prisons. Let's see prisons, meat packing plants, high rise apartments. What do they have in common? Lots of people in a confined space.

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cc-cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/24/2020 11:27:36 PM 
Alan Swank wrote:
The big growth in Ohio was in prisons. Let's see prisons, meat packing plants, high rise apartments. What do they have in common? Lots of people in a confined space.


Son played travel soccer for years - his coach was an architect whose firm worked on two types of institutions: prisons and colleges (dorms). If / when this returns in the fall.....
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/25/2020 11:55:09 AM 
cc-cat wrote:
Alan Swank wrote:
The big growth in Ohio was in prisons. Let's see prisons, meat packing plants, high rise apartments. What do they have in common? Lots of people in a confined space.


Son played travel soccer for years - his coach was an architect whose firm worked on two types of institutions: prisons and colleges (dorms). If / when this returns in the fall.....


Also nursing homes and halfway houses. Putnam County was one of the last three counties in Ohio to report a covid-19 case and went from one to 20 cases almost overnight because of an outbreak in a nursing home in Leipsic. A week later it has 49 cases. I imagine homeless shelters are experiencing the same thing, but might not be in the reported numbers because residents there are transient.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/25/2020 12:04:51 PM 
gedunkman wrote:
Here's the situation in Switzerland and how the country plans to reopen: In phase one, which begins in a few days, hair salons, cosmetic studios, doctors’ offices and physiotherapist practices, garden centers, and home improvement stores will all reopen. Then on 11 May 2020 (not yet confirmed) they will reopen primary schools (1st – 9th Grade here), and other shops including department stores, restaurants, and open-air markets. The last phase is projected to start on 8 June 2020 and will include the reopening of all remaining educational institutions, museums and zoos and libraries. I don't see why many states in the USA could not do as well in terms of a timeline. NY and NJ are, obviously exceptions. Those closest to the situation and on the ground, should make the call, not some distant WHO official, or expert on an internet board. (ha-ha)


What's the testing plan that goes along with reopening in Switzerland? A timeline tells very little of the actual plan.
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gedunkman
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/25/2020 2:07:46 PM 
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
gedunkman wrote:
Here's the situation in Switzerland and how the country plans to reopen: In phase one, which begins in a few days, hair salons, cosmetic studios, doctors’ offices and physiotherapist practices, garden centers, and home improvement stores will all reopen. Then on 11 May 2020 (not yet confirmed) they will reopen primary schools (1st – 9th Grade here), and other shops including department stores, restaurants, and open-air markets. The last phase is projected to start on 8 June 2020 and will include the reopening of all remaining educational institutions, museums and zoos and libraries. I don't see why many states in the USA could not do as well in terms of a timeline. NY and NJ are, obviously exceptions. Those closest to the situation and on the ground, should make the call, not some distant WHO official, or expert on an internet board. (ha-ha)


What's the testing plan that goes along with reopening in Switzerland? A timeline tells very little of the actual plan.


Can't tell you what's going on at this base because of security, but in the civilian population they claim nearly 7,500 are being tested each day and that this is the most on a percentage basis in the world. Can't say for sure if this is true, as I have little contact outside the base. My consultation is strictly military, and is not related to this coronavirus outbreak.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?
   Posted: 4/27/2020 4:29:47 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Nebraska cases up 99%

More packing plants hit in the last couple days in Schuyler and Crete. Packing plants from Tyson, Smithfield, and JBS are all being closed all across the country. Meat may become scarce for the next year as farmers are forced to dispose of cattle, chicken, and pigs there is no buyer for.

Meanwhile there is a surplus of produce. It seems that people eat more vegetables when they eat out (or, at least they get served the vegetables), so there is not enough demand for all the vegetables being grown. There is also a glut of milk, which farmers are forced to dump. Our efficient food chain is suffering some severe disruptions at the moment.

In many other countries it will just as bad, or worse. Starvation may become a big problem in the world over the next 12 months in some countries. Most of us are too young to remember, but the same thing happened in the the 30's; farmers plowed their produce into the ground, and slaughtered animals they couldn't sell, even there was an issue with starvation.

Last Edited: 4/27/2020 4:54:04 PM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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