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Topic: RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Topic: RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

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L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/6/2020 8:34:53 PM

I found this list of when different states took action:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-state-by-state-guide-to-co...

March 21st? That appears to be the earliest of any state on this list. I can't believe that any state took that long, much less all of them.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

greencat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/6/2020 9:25:14 PM

I'll ask this just for kicks.

Are any of you guys familiar with "Novartis" or who they gave large amounts of $$$ to or what they make or who bought 2million$$ worth of their stock this February?

Just wondering in a general kind of way.

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/7/2020 9:21:32 AM

L.C. wrote:

What do you mean by "took action?" As this article clearly states Ohio started taking actions as early as March 3. Heck on this site, as late as March 10th, long time posters were saying that "over reactions and cancellations are bullshit."

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/timeline-of-coronav...

And this article from March 13 shows that 12 states had announced closures of their schools at that time.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/schools-in-kentucky-marylan...

And finally, there is certainly some cause and effect relationship between the message from national leadership and loyal party response at the state level. As late as March 10th, trump still had not truly expressed the seriousness of the event. He did do that in no uncertain terms on March 11 much to his credit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavi...

Last Edited: 4/7/2020 9:29:37 AM by Alan Swank

cc-cat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/7/2020 4:03:24 PM

greencat wrote:

Novartis makes hydroxychloroquine
They gave Michael Cohen $1.0 million plus after Trump was elected for "Consulting" fees - means access to POTUS
Ole Rudy G. bought the stock in February and the Trump family also has a stake in the drug.

As always (especially with Trump) - follow the money

bobcatsquared
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/7/2020 5:43:22 PM

"Drain the swamp"

"MAGA"

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/7/2020 6:13:10 PM

cc-cat wrote:

greencat wrote:

I'm sorry, but this is just stupid. They may have been looking for influence, but a plug for hydroxychloroquine wouldn't be of much value to them. Hydroxychloroquine is a generic drug. Anyone can make it, and many do, Novartis being one of many. As a result, it is a low margin drug. I doubt Novartis, or anyone else, is making much off of it. If hydroxychloroquine turns out to be effective, it will be great that covid19 can be treated with such an inexpensive generic drug, rather than some expensive prescription drug, such as remdesivir, which is also being tested.

So, is Novartis raking in profits from it? They just donated 130 million doses of it:
https://www.novartis.com/news/media-releases/novartis-com...

If you want to be cynical, and say that "well, the donated it because the value of the goodwill is worth more than the value of the drug itself", fine.

Alan Swank wrote:

L.C. wrote:

I agree, Alan, a picture of just one date, such as "lock down date" paints an erroneous picture. Some day, someone with more time on their hands can go back and put together a timeline for the various states, and see who did what, when. There are lots of individual steps that can and were taken by various states, such as closing schools, stopping public events, closing restaurants and bars, stopping dentists, hair salons, and the like. Some states took strong enough actions early on that they aren't out of control now, while others didn't. We can be glad that we live in two states that did.

As another tidbit, New Jersey today closed all state and county parks, which remained open up until today. People were congregating, and not following social distancing. The outside is great, if you stay away from others, but not if you get into groups. Odd that some complained about Georgia beaches being open, but not about New Jersey parks.

Last Edited: 4/7/2020 7:20:19 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

yamaha45701
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/7/2020 8:57:55 PM

https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/california-scien... / Apparently, beaches can spread the virus far quicker than a normal park. Think of the waves as being a big cough dispersing water droplets in the air. Food for thought anyway.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/7/2020 10:05:42 PM

yamaha45701 wrote:

Interesting, but kind of odd. I can see there being bacteria in the water, for the water to spread that way, but where will the virus come from, especially if you are alone on the beach? I suppose on person coughs, it settles into the ocean, then it sends it back into the air, but it would be an awfully small dose.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/7/2020 10:34:42 PM

L.C. wrote:

cc-cat wrote:

greencat wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Always working to defend the indefensible. Though a generic form, the government can enter into an exclusive or preferred provider of said generic drug. But hey, Trump or his cronies would never do a deal that would benefit themselves or their cronies.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/8/2020 2:08:09 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Nothing like making inferences without proof. It's sort of like blaming Trump for the idiots that took aquarium cleaner. Other than the fact that they took the wrong chemical, the wrong grade of chemical, and the wrong dose, what did they do wrong?

The fact is that right now hydroxychloroquinone appears to be the most effective treatment, and it is being used increasingly around the world. It was successful in 2 in vitro studies, and has been shown effective in 3 of 4 in vivo studies, but all of them were small, ranging from 6 to 60 patients. Anecdotal evidence is also positive. Doctors would never use a drug based on a recommendation from any politician, but if it appeared to be working, they would use it, and they are.

Is it surprising that it is effective? Not really. It has been shown in the past to be effective against SARS and MERS, so it was a logical drug to try, and was one of the first that was tried in China. One thing that makes it interesting that that, besides it's anti-microbal effects, it also works by calming the immune system. SARS-COV2 is a potent killer because it causes the immune system to become over active, leading to a cytokine storm, where the immune system attacks and kills healthy cells, leading to multiple organ failure. Hydroychloroquinone is the primary drug for treating lupus, an auto-immune disorder, where the immune system is over-active.

With or without Trump having said anything, every maker of hydroxychloroquinone would now be selling every dose they can make. The early studies were already done by the time Trump said anything, and 20+ additional studies were already in the works. One study showed that it was worse than a placebo in patients late in the recovery process, but all the other studies so far have been positive.

I have no doubt that most groups that make political contributions, where the corporations or unions, expect to benefit from them. If this is all Novartis got from their contribution, they got a very poor return, because it changed nothing. Had Trump not said anything, Novartis, and every other maker of hydroxychlorquinone would still have sold every dose they can make. It is being used, not because of recommendations, but because, at least for now, it is the most effective thing that has been found. Consider this recent study where none that were given hydroxychlorquinone early needed hospitalization:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroqu...
This is consistent with this anecdotal information:
https://collive.com/doctor-claims-to-have-new-solution-fo... /

I do feel sorry for the poor people in New York and Michigan who needlessly died because the governors of those states initially prohibited their doctors from prescribing it to patients. Some of them might still be here, had their governors not politicized this, and had instead allowed their doctors to give their patients the best available care.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

greencat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/8/2020 5:23:51 PM

quote:

We know most people with COVID-19 get better on their own," said Dr. Wesley Self, an emergency physician at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee, who is studying the drug.

We need real science behind this disease.

"If you took those same people, and didn't give them medicine, many of them would report, we think, similar rates of recovery," Self said.

In other words, it's possible those patients would have improved clinically whether they got hydroxychloroquine or nothing at all.

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/8/2020 6:07:49 PM

L.C. wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

I do feel sorry for the poor people in New York and Michigan who needlessly died because the governors of those states initially prohibited their doctors from prescribing it to patients. Some of them might still be here, had their governors not politicized this, and had instead allowed their doctors to give their patients the best available care.

Nothing like making inferences without proof.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/8/2020 6:41:31 PM

greencat wrote:

And that's why there are more studies on the way all across the globe, to establish stronger evidence. In the meantime, since there are no drugs "proven by strong studies to work", would you suggest we don't treat them? Or, should we give them a drug that is cheap, has a good safety profile, is readily available, and appears to work? Right now it is the drug of choice in many countries, not just in the US. Personally, if I had Covid19, I'd "ask my doctor about hydroxychloroquinone" (lol, since it's a generic, that's an ad you'll never hear).

Alan Swank wrote:

Nothing like making inferences without proof.

New York: 149,316 cases, 6268 deaths, 4.2% death rate so far
Michigan: 20,346 cases, 959 deaths, 4.7% death rate so far
Rest of US: 256,638 cases, 7395 deaths, 2.9% death rate so far

Whatever they are doing isn't working as well as whatever they are doing in the rest of the US.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/8/2020 7:52:27 PM

If you're going to argue about this, at least get your facts correct. As of this very moment, there are 427,101 cases and 14,668 deaths which is 3.43%. Are you in the medical field or a cousin of Mr. Tanner? In otherwords, what are your "bonafides?"

BillyTheCat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/8/2020 8:05:23 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

L.C. wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Nothing like making inferences without proof.

Do you really believe this LC? There is NO clinical evidence this drug has an effect. What we do know though is the President has a financial interest in this drug he keeps pushing.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/8/2020 8:32:57 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

L.C. wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Nothing like making inferences without proof.

Do you really believe this LC? There is NO clinical evidence this drug has an effect. What we do know though is the President has a financial interest in this drug he keeps pushing.

Not counting the in vitro studies, there are three studies, all small, that showed a positive impact. The largest one was the last one, that I linked to above, and it showed a clear benefit, when the hydroxychloroquinone was given early, with none of the patients getting worse and needing hospitalization, while several from the control group did get worse.

Contrast that to all other medications that have been tried so far. Not a single one has been shown to be useful in any study. So, what should be used? A drug that has three small studies that show a benefit? A drug that has no studies showing it to be useful? No drug at all? I pay no attention to Trump, one way or the other, and instead look at the medical studies. I think it should be used because the studies say so. By contrast, it seems to be the opinion of a lot of people that because Trump recommended it, it should be avoided, because he's an idiot. It doesn't matter if he is an idiot or not, nor whether he recommended it or not. What matters is that, first, yes, there are studies that support it's use, and second, anecdotal evidence also supports it. If doctors use it, and their patients get better, they are more apt to use it more, and that's why usage is growing. Do you honestly believe that any doctor would prescribe something, anything, just because a politician, any politician recommended it?

As far as the "financial interest" aspect, that's just stupid. The profit margins on generics are small because there are many people making them. Thus, the price is over cost, but not way over cost. When you factor in that Novartis gave away 130 million doses, that probably was equal to anything they would have made on this epidemic. If this was some patented drug, they yes, I'd buy the argument that whoever owned the patent had a big financial stake, but for a generic, no. Many other companies are ramping up production of hydroxychloroquinine fast in the weeks ahead, in addition to the people already making it. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Novartis had things in mind when they made their donation. More likely, they were looking for support getting new drugs approved, or something of the like. A plug for a not-that-profitable 30 year old generic drug would have been the last thing on their mind.

Here's an article about some of the many other makers of Hydroxychloroquinone, by the way:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/20/teva-donates-hy...

I gave you a link above to the NY times article talking about the latest study. Here's a link to an article about an earlier French study:
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/french-study-finds-anti... /

And more, this one on choloquine phosphate:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550

And, to give the bad with the good, here is the one that showed it didn't help:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydrox...

Last Edited: 4/8/2020 9:34:58 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/9/2020 9:30:56 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

LC - what's your explanation for this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republican-govern...

I decided to take a look at the performance of the states with official stay at home orders versus the eight other states.

42 states with stay at home orders: 239987 on 4/2, 459860 4/9, up 9.7% a day
8 states without stay at home orders: 4480 cases on 4/2, 8259 on 4/9, up 9.4% a day

There isn't much difference in the result.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/10/2020 7:48:12 AM

L.C. wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

LC - what's your explanation for this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republican-govern...

How does the population density of those states compare to each other? Wouldn't we expect results in states with large, dense cities to be worse?

Last Edited: 4/10/2020 7:51:13 AM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/10/2020 9:24:16 AM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

LC - what's your explanation for this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republican-govern...

How does the population density of those states compare to each other? Wouldn't we expect results in states with large, dense cities to be worse?

Yes, I'm sure that's a factor. Also it takes longer to get to the rural areas so they are less far along and the increase hasn't exploded yet. I'm sure this also factors into the death rates for places like New York and Michigan also.

BillyTheCat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/10/2020 9:59:18 AM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

L.C. wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

LC - what's your explanation for this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republican-govern...

How does the population density of those states compare to each other? Wouldn't we expect results in states with large, dense cities to be worse?

BINGO, again, LC throwing random numbers out without looking at the causation to justify his political ideology.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/10/2020 11:56:27 AM

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

How does the population density of those states compare to each other? Wouldn't we expect results in states with large, dense cities to be worse?

Good question, so I collected more data. I also added data for the week prior:
1. 42 states with stay at home orders: 239987 on 4/2, 459860 4/9, up 9.7% a day, up 16.2% the week prior
2. 8 states without stay at home orders: 4480 cases on 4/2, 8259 on 4/9, up 9.4% a day, up 16.5% the week prior
3. 8 large states (NY, NJ, MI, CA, PN, TX, FL, OH): 164269 on 4/2, 306316 on 4/9, up 9.3% a day, up 15.7% a day the week prior
4. 8 states similar to the ones without shelter orders, some midwest/plains, some west, some SE (WV, NV, MS, OK, KY, MN, KA, NM): 5655 on 4/2, 10614 on 4/9, up 9.4% a day, 16.4% the week prior

So, putting it in a table:
Group 1: 16.2% to 9.7% (all states with shelter at home orders)
Group 2: 16.5% to 9.4% (all states without shelter at home orders)
Group 3: 15.7% to 9.3% (very populous states)
Group 4: 16.4% to 9.4% (8 states similar to the ones with stay at home orders)

There doesn't appear to be any significant difference. Various people have different theories for why that is. Mine is that the states without official "shelter at home" orders have enacted substantially similar policies, and basically the same businesses are required to be closed. Other people have a different theory, that the slowing is not being caused by the stay at home orders, but because the virus is slowing on it's own, and that the stay at home policies are destroying the economy for no reason. Personally, I think that's very unlikely, but it is true that it seems to be decelerating in all countries of the world, so I can't say for sure.

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

...I'm sure this also factors into the death rates for places like New York and Michigan also.

It's certainly possible that it's a factor, yet there are other states with a lot of cases that have much lower death rates than Michigan and New York. Here are the states with the most cases/million people, and their death rate so far:

New York 8282/million, 4.4%
New Jersey 5733/million, 3.3%
Louisiana 3932/million, 3.8%
Mass 2745/million, 2.7%
Conn 2741/million, 3.9%
Michigan 2150/million, 5.0%
DC 2145/million, 2.1%
Rhode Island 1629/million, 2.5%
Penn 1449/million, 1.9%
Illinois 1293/million, 3.2%

Is it a coincidence that of the top ten, only two states banned the use of hydroxychloroquinone for Covid19, and those two have the highest death rate? Perhaps. Both states are now allowing it again. We shall see if they improve. If it has a statistically significant benefit, they should.

BillyTheCat wrote:

BINGO, again, LC throwing random numbers out without looking at the causation to justify his political ideology.

My political ideology is libertarianism. I am neither Republican or Democrat. As such, I couldn't care less about the political aspects of this. My ideology is that is a healthcare issue, and not a political issue. My goal is for the least possible people to die, with the least possible damage to the economy and the incomes of millions of Americans.

As a result:
1. I couldn't care less if Trump endorsed hyroxychloroquinone
2. Since there are no medically approved treatments for Covid19, I think doctors should be able to prescribe whatever they believe benefits their patients the most
3. I don't believe any doctor would prescribe something based on a recommendation of any politician
4. I think it is completely outrageous that any governors would prohibit something solely for political reasons. Politics should play no role here. Lives are at stake.
5. Lives come before economic damage, and if states are foolishly avoiding shelter at home orders to save their economy, that would be wrong. The evidence thus far, however, shows no substantial difference.

I'm going to be a lot harsher here than I normally would because I strongly believe that this is a healthcare problem, and should not be politicized. If you want to find someone posting things that reflect political ideology, rather than facts, try looking in the mirror. I'll change my opinions on what the best course of action is when the fact change. Will you? For example, if the states without stay at home orders flatten out, and stop showing improvement, while those that have them continue to improve, I'll support the other states following them. If larger studies come out, and don't support the use of hydroxychloroquinone, I'll stop supporting it's use. If studies come out showing that remdesivir works better, I'll support that.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/10/2020 4:54:36 PM

L.C. wrote:

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:

How does the population density of those states compare to each other? Wouldn't we expect results in states with large, dense cities to be worse?

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

...I'm sure this also factors into the death rates for places like New York and Michigan also.

BillyTheCat wrote:

BINGO, again, LC throwing random numbers out without looking at the causation to justify his political ideology.

Exactly, you libertarianism is showing through (FYI, libertarianism is a political ideology), and you post on how states social distancing and shelter in place orders, are not being as sussessful as po�dunk Nebraska is as I stated totally misleading, you cannot compare, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Ny Jersey, Mew York, etc to a rural corn field infested state to states where Nebraska�s 3rd largest state is the size of Ohio�s 15th largest. Belluve, the 3rd largest city and is still a cow town. You are comparing a state with main roads in rural Nebraska that are dirt as soon as you get off an interstate.

So yes, your post on this matter clearly bleeds a political bias. Try what Nebraska is doing in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus or any of their suburbs and tell me you think it would work better.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/10/2020 8:53:11 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

If you go back, I made two point earlier. The first, which you seem to agree with, is that the Governors of each state were in a better position to understand their own local circumstances, and they aren't acting unreasonably. My second point, was that there really isn't as much difference someone might think, because, even though all non-essential business haven't been closed, almost all non-essential businesses are in fact closed.

Moving on to other news, in Kansas, the idiotic Kansas legislature revoked Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly�s order limiting religious gatherings to 10 people.
https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article24...

Also, a small preliminary study of Remdesiver which lacked a control group, showed some promise as some patients improved on it.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-study-shows-covid-19-pa...
More, larger studies are being run with remdesiver, which was shown earlier in a Chinese study to be effective in vitro.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/11/2020 9:26:45 PM

Another therapy being tried is plasma therapy:
https://time.com/5809955/blood-plasma-coronavirus /

This is something has been done since the 1890s. The first major application of it was to battle diptheria, using plasma from horses. The idea is you take plasma from people who have recovered, and transfer it to those who are ill, transferring antibodies in the process, and giving them an immune boast. It's a therapy from the past, that works, but which fell out of favor as newer things like antibiotics and vaccines replaced it.

Even as they continue to try to find new improvements to the treatments, the death rate continues to rise. Nationwide it now stands at 3.9%, with a high of 5.8% in Michigan.

This flu season produced about 24,000 fatalities. Covid19 should pass that on Tuesday or Wednesday. Even with lockdowns it will have killed more people in March and April than the flu did in an entire year.

In the good news department, new cases grew only 6% today, by far the lowest yet, down from 7.3% yesterday, and 7.7% on Thursday. As recently as 4-1 it was growing at 14% a day.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/12/2020 1:13:34 PM

L.C. wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

State Governors may be in the best position to understand their situation, but they're not really in the best position to help. Sure, when it comes to shut downs, it's a simple enough call. But otherwise the insistence that states take the lead on testing and procuring ventilators has been an unmitigated disaster. Does anybody understand the process or rules here? What logic and process is the federal government using to determine who gets supplies, and if it's the responsibility of states to find their own, why is the federal government sometimes rerouting those?

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