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Topic:  OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off

Topic:  OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/28/2020 4:13:11 PM 
Apparently Coronavirus (no, not a Corona hangover) potentially makes appearance at Fiami)

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/2...
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100%Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/28/2020 4:21:31 PM 
I dislike Oxford Tech as much as anyone, but hopefully it turns out to not be coronavirus.
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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/28/2020 4:39:08 PM 
100%Cat wrote:
I dislike Oxford Tech as much as anyone, but hopefully it turns out to not be coronavirus.


Agreed.
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/28/2020 5:30:15 PM 
There next three games are

@NIU
WMU
@Ohio

Seems like a possibility they would also cancel the WMU game. By the time we host them, a lot more schools might have possible cases... Not like their the only school with Chinese exchange students...


I've seen crazier things happen.

Black 41 Flash Reverse

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Buckeye to Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/28/2020 5:38:06 PM 
The Optimist wrote:
There next three games are

@NIU
WMU
@Ohio

Seems like a possibility they would also cancel the WMU game. By the time we host them, a lot more schools might have possible cases... Not like their the only school with Chinese exchange students...


+1

Thinking about that more, colleges should be at Defcon 1 given how many Chinese students they all take in. Of all the entities in this country, given how many Chinese students there are, universities with anyone from the Wuhan area need to monitor unlike any other.
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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/29/2020 11:35:21 AM 
Seems like a kneejerk overkill reaction. Probably less exposure to people in that arena than there is in their dorms.


Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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longtiimelurker
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/29/2020 5:32:40 PM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
Seems like a kneejerk overkill reaction. Probably less exposure to people in that arena than there is in their dorms.


Congratulations on the use of there and their, could have hit a home run with the use of They're in that sentence. Much respect.

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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 12:04:10 PM 
longtiimelurker wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
Seems like a kneejerk overkill reaction. Probably less exposure to people in that arena than there is in their dorms.


Congratulations on the use of there and their, could have hit a home run with the use of They're in that sentence. Much respect.



When I first started reading this, I panicked that you were being sarcastic and mocking me and I would've had to accept a public failure. Had to read it again and make sure it was proper.


Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 12:10:17 PM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
Seems like a kneejerk overkill reaction. Probably less exposure to people in that arena than there is in their dorms.


Not really. Games bring togehter people from far and wide and with it the chance to introduce the virus into the larger non-university population.
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Kevin Finnegan
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 12:12:46 PM 
I'm thinking this is a massive overreaction as well. As of today, there have been 171 deaths worldwide, and I believe 0 in the USA. Compare that to the fact that over 8,200 deaths have already been reported this flu season in the US alone from influenza.
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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 12:22:41 PM 
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
I'm thinking this is a massive overreaction as well. As of today, there have been 171 deaths worldwide, and I believe 0 in the USA. Compare that to the fact that over 8,200 deaths have already been reported this flu season in the US alone from influenza.


It seems that the scariest part of this flu is not knowing. I think as more facts are coming out, it doesn't appear to be especially deadly, maybe no more so than a typical flu.
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 12:29:09 PM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
longtiimelurker wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
Seems like a kneejerk overkill reaction. Probably less exposure to people in that arena than there is in their dorms.


Congratulations on the use of there and their, could have hit a home run with the use of They're in that sentence. Much respect.



When I first started reading this, I panicked that you were being sarcastic and mocking me and I would've had to accept a public failure. Had to read it again and make sure it was proper.


I caught my mistake(s) about 20 minutes after posting. Unfortunately, I had been quoted 10 minutes after.

More than incorrect usage of there/their/they're I cannot stand edited posts that have already been quoted. Defeats the purpose.


I've seen crazier things happen.

Black 41 Flash Reverse

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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 12:33:48 PM 
According to the Miami board, it was CMU/WMU (for girls game next day) that led to this being cancelled.

Much scarier than the basketball game is that these students supposedly were identified at the student health center at Miami. I remember going to the student health center in Athens a couple times... Quality of care was poor and there was a close proximity the other (usually sick) students. Eventually I learned it was better to just stay home.


I've seen crazier things happen.

Black 41 Flash Reverse

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 7:29:36 PM 
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
I'm thinking this is a massive overreaction as well. As of today, there have been 171 deaths worldwide, and I believe 0 in the USA. Compare that to the fact that over 8,200 deaths have already been reported this flu season in the US alone from influenza.


A good perspective. From what I've read, and I'm not claiming any great expertise here, spread from human to human contact is not easy with this virus. The vast majority of cases, according to the Journal of Medical Virology, probably occur from eating and/or handling contaminated animals in food markets -- specifically snakes and bats. This does not mean that the precautions that CDC is taking are not appropriate. Until we know more about this disease, it's wise to be as cautious as possible.

Last Edited: 1/30/2020 7:39:54 PM by OhioCatFan


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Bobcat61
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/30/2020 10:04:28 PM 
Rumor has it that S W Tech has approx 2500 students from China.
All/ Most foreign students are Full Pay— You do the math
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 1/31/2020 7:52:18 AM 
Bobcat61 wrote:
Rumor has it that S W Tech has approx 2500 students from China.
All/ Most foreign students are Full Pay— You do the math


And our international numbers are significantly down, at full price do the math.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 2/2/2020 12:14:59 PM 
UpSan Bobcat wrote:
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
I'm thinking this is a massive overreaction as well. As of today, there have been 171 deaths worldwide, and I believe 0 in the USA. Compare that to the fact that over 8,200 deaths have already been reported this flu season in the US alone from influenza.


It seems that the scariest part of this flu is not knowing. I think as more facts are coming out, it doesn't appear to be especially deadly, maybe no more so than a typical flu.

I'm not seeing anything like this. Reported death rate appears to be about 2%, with a typical flu about .04%, so not even remotely close. Also, death rate and infection rate appears to be significantly higher for men than women. Also, the infection rate seems to be much higher than the normal flu. R0 for the typical flu is about 1.2, meaning a 20% growth in infections with each generation. For Coronavirus it has been estimated in the 2.5-3.5 range, meaning about 200% growth with each generation.

Let's hope it can be contained, at least long enough to develop a vaccine. To put in perspective how fast and how bad it could become, deaths have been rising, albeit from a small number, by about 21% a day. If that were to continue, it extrapolates to 19 million deaths by the end of March. (305*1.21^58) Note, I am not projecting such a thing, only suggesting that it is a serious issue that needs to be monitored, addressed, and hopefully avoided.

OhioCatFan wrote:
A good perspective. From what I've read, and I'm not claiming any great expertise here, spread from human to human contact is not easy with this virus. The vast majority of cases, according to the Journal of Medical Virology, probably occur from eating and/or handling contaminated animals in food markets -- specifically snakes and bats. This does not mean that the precautions that CDC is taking are not appropriate. Until we know more about this disease, it's wise to be as cautious as possible.


That was what was believed early on, but now there is clear evidence multiple generations of human to human transmission. Worse, people are contagious before they have symptoms, so they aren't even aware they are sick. To have a serious pandemic, you need four things:
1. Transmission before symptoms, making it impossible to catch and confine cases prior to transmission
2. A high R0
3. A high death rate
4. Limited number of people with immunity (had it before, or immunized)

Recent threats like MERS and SARS checked only 2-4, but were not transmissible before symptoms appeared. That allowed them to be controlled by identifying people with symptoms, and quarantining them. 2019-nCov, however, checks off all four boxes.

One can, for many reasons, doubt the data coming from China. However, even the China data shows cases continuing to rise by over 20% a day. That is not possible to blame on eating or handling infected animals. We have yet to reach stages 5 and 6 in the Pandemic checklist because it hasn't escaped to the wild in multiple countries, but with worldwide travel, we will have to watch carefully to see how this develops.

Last Edited: 2/2/2020 12:29:09 PM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 2/2/2020 12:38:24 PM 
L.C. wrote:
UpSan Bobcat wrote:
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
I'm thinking this is a massive overreaction as well. As of today, there have been 171 deaths worldwide, and I believe 0 in the USA. Compare that to the fact that over 8,200 deaths have already been reported this flu season in the US alone from influenza.


It seems that the scariest part of this flu is not knowing. I think as more facts are coming out, it doesn't appear to be especially deadly, maybe no more so than a typical flu.

I'm not seeing anything like this. Reported death rate appears to be about 2%, with a typical flu about .04%, so not even remotely close. Also, death rate and infection rate appears to be significantly higher for men than women. Also, the infection rate seems to be much higher than the normal flu. R0 for the typical flu is about 1.2, meaning a 20% growth in infections with each generation. For Coronavirus it has been estimated in the 2.5-3.5 range, meaning about 200% growth with each generation.

Let's hope it can be contained, at least long enough to develop a vaccine. To put in perspective how fast and how bad it could become, deaths have been rising, albeit from a small number, by about 21% a day. If that were to continue, it extrapolates to 19 million deaths by the end of March. (305*1.21^58) Note, I am not projecting such a thing, only suggesting that it is a serious issue that needs to be monitored, addressed, and hopefully avoided.

OhioCatFan wrote:
A good perspective. From what I've read, and I'm not claiming any great expertise here, spread from human to human contact is not easy with this virus. The vast majority of cases, according to the Journal of Medical Virology, probably occur from eating and/or handling contaminated animals in food markets -- specifically snakes and bats. This does not mean that the precautions that CDC is taking are not appropriate. Until we know more about this disease, it's wise to be as cautious as possible.


That was what was believed early on, but now there is clear evidence multiple generations of human to human transmission. Worse, people are contagious before they have symptoms, so they aren't even aware they are sick. To have a serious pandemic, you need four things:
1. Transmission before symptoms, making it impossible to catch and confine cases prior to transmission
2. A high R0
3. A high death rate
4. Limited number of people with immunity (had it before, or immunized)

Recent threats like MERS and SARS checked only 2-4, but were not transmissible before symptoms appeared. That allowed them to be controlled by identifying people with symptoms, and quarantining them. 2019-nCov, however, checks off all four boxes.

One can, for many reasons, doubt the data coming from China. However, even the China data shows cases continuing to rise by over 20% a day. That is not possible to blame on eating or handling infected animals. We have yet to reach stages 5 and 6 in the Pandemic checklist because it hasn't escaped to the wild in multiple countries, but with worldwide travel, we will have to watch carefully to see how this develops.


Well, humanity, you had a good run. It was probably time.

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 2/2/2020 12:43:18 PM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
Well, humanity, you had a good run. It was probably time.

Lol

Children and women are not very susceptible, so even in a worst case scenario, humanity isn't threatened.

On the bright side, as of today, for the first time more people are reported to have recovered than have died (348 recovered, 305 dead).

For up to date data, this website from Johns Hopkins is useful:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/inde...

It is updated several times a day, not continuously.

A note: you can't take the 305 dead and compare it to the 14,628 cases to get a 2.1% death rate. First, we can assume that if the disease were to stop spreading today, more of the 14,628 people will die before all is said and done. The 305 dead should probably be compared to the number of cases about a week ago, since most of the dead probably were identified for a week or so before they eventually succumbed. A week ago there were 2700 cases. So, is the death rate really 305/2700, or 11%?

There are also factors working in the other direction. It is likely that as the disease spread in China, and hospitals filled (they just added a 1000 bed hospital, built in a few days, and are building another), several factors kicked in that most likely mean that cases have been under-reported. First, people with mild symptoms probably didn't go in, or were sent home. Second, China may not have enough test kits to actually test all the people who should be tested. Third, China may be intentionally under-reporting the cases. Another factor that may indicate that the death rate is lower is that 294/305 death are from the Wuhan area. Clearly their medical system was overwhelmed, which is why they built the emergency hospital, and are building another. Perhaps the death rate was only as high as it was because they couldn't deliver the necessary care to the people in need.

There is much we don't know, but clearly this is a situation that needs to be monitored. We just don't know how serious it will be, but in 1-2 weeks, the picture will be much clearer.


Edit - even more are listed as recovered since this morning. Now at 443 recovered, versus 305 deceased. Even better news: while deaths still exceed recoveries in the Wuhan area, where medical facilities were overwhelmed, if you look at data from the rest of the world it is much more encouraging. There are 176 people now listed as recovered outside of Wuhan, compared to 11 deceased, so it appears that with proper medical care, most people will survive, and so long as the medical system is not overwhelmed, the death rate is much lower than initially reported. It does still have a much higher need for hospitalization than the flu, however.

Last Edited: 2/2/2020 2:49:35 PM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Pete Chouteau
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 2/2/2020 2:39:59 PM 
You've seen Miami's attendance, right?
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 2/2/2020 7:16:54 PM 
A new study out of China computed an R0 of 4.08 for 2019-nCov and a fatality rate of 6.5%:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101.2020.01.27.200189...

Obviously it is not peer reviewed as there is no time. What does this mean? R0 is the number of new infections that each infected person creates. If R0 is <1, the infection will die out. Flu has an R0 of about 1.28. That means that:
1 generation: 1.28 people
2 generations: 1.64 people
5 generations: 3 people
10 generations: 9 people
20 generations: 109
Total people infected after 20 generations=494

With an R0 of 4, you get:
1 generation: 4
2 generations: 16
5 generations: 256
10 generations: 262,144
20 generations: 275 billion
Total people infected= 365 billion

The good news in this report is that if the time each infected person is out spreading infections is reduced to under 2.3 days, the R0 drops to under 1, and it will die out on it's own. That explains why China has addressed this with a total lockdown.

Bill Gates gave this possibly prescient speech in 2015:
https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI

Last Edited: 2/3/2020 8:51:34 AM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Kevin Finnegan
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 3/11/2020 12:23:41 PM 
L.C. wrote:
A new study out of China computed an R0 of 4.08 for 2019-nCov and a fatality rate of 6.5%:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101.2020.01.27.200189...

Obviously it is not peer reviewed as there is no time. What does this mean? R0 is the number of new infections that each infected person creates. If R0 is <1, the infection will die out. Flu has an R0 of about 1.28. That means that:
1 generation: 1.28 people
2 generations: 1.64 people
5 generations: 3 people
10 generations: 9 people
20 generations: 109
Total people infected after 20 generations=494

With an R0 of 4, you get:
1 generation: 4
2 generations: 16
5 generations: 256
10 generations: 262,144
20 generations: 275 billion
Total people infected= 365 billion

The good news in this report is that if the time each infected person is out spreading infections is reduced to under 2.3 days, the R0 drops to under 1, and it will die out on it's own. That explains why China has addressed this with a total lockdown.

Bill Gates gave this possibly prescient speech in 2015:
https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI



And, from the football board:

L.C. wrote:
I would consider that a tentative schedule. With the Coronavirus now spreading rapidly in three more countries, S. Korea, Iran, and Italy, the possibility increases that come Fall there will very few football games, as happened in 1918.


So, kudos to L.C. for having the foresight to see where this train was headed. Won't lie, I thought he was completely off-base when I read this, but he's proven to be pretty accurate and predictive. L.C., what's the future hold now?
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Mark Lembright '85
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: Fiami vs CMU Called Off
   Posted: 3/11/2020 2:54:40 PM 
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
L.C. wrote:
A new study out of China computed an R0 of 4.08 for 2019-nCov and a fatality rate of 6.5%:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101.2020.01.27.200189...

Obviously it is not peer reviewed as there is no time. What does this mean? R0 is the number of new infections that each infected person creates. If R0 is <1, the infection will die out. Flu has an R0 of about 1.28. That means that:
1 generation: 1.28 people
2 generations: 1.64 people
5 generations: 3 people
10 generations: 9 people
20 generations: 109
Total people infected after 20 generations=494

With an R0 of 4, you get:
1 generation: 4
2 generations: 16
5 generations: 256
10 generations: 262,144
20 generations: 275 billion
Total people infected= 365 billion

The good news in this report is that if the time each infected person is out spreading infections is reduced to under 2.3 days, the R0 drops to under 1, and it will die out on it's own. That explains why China has addressed this with a total lockdown.

Bill Gates gave this possibly prescient speech in 2015:
https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI



And, from the football board:

L.C. wrote:
I would consider that a tentative schedule. With the Coronavirus now spreading rapidly in three more countries, S. Korea, Iran, and Italy, the possibility increases that come Fall there will very few football games, as happened in 1918.


So, kudos to L.C. for having the foresight to see where this train was headed. Won't lie, I thought he was completely off-base when I read this, but he's proven to be pretty accurate and predictive. L.C., what's the future hold now?


I think you'll have to repost in the football board as LC rarely if ever, frequents the basketball board.

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