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Topic:  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check

Topic:  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/21/2017 6:19:54 PM 
Jeff McKinney wrote:
I don't want to hijack the thread, but look where schools with limited resources but yet try to be big time in both football and basketball fare...CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt...not that well. Mtn West and American can pull it off because they have more money overall. If national prominence is a major goal, it might be wise to consider shifting more resources into basketball and less than football.

Do you really think that the appearances in major bowls by NIU and Western do that much for the long term national prominence of the MAC?

Increasing MAC basketball budgets might be the major part of improving what ZGraff points out.


You beat me to the punch Jeff. On our limited student fee subsidized budget i don't think there is anyway that we can move up as the rich continue to get richer and the basketball only schools get better and better. Yes, we might catch lightning in a bottle like Western this year and Kent in basketball when they went to the Elite 8 or we did when we almost beat UNC but i had to go back 15 years to write this sentence.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/21/2017 6:30:34 PM 
Jeff McKinney wrote:
I don't want to hijack the thread, but look where schools with limited resources but yet try to be big time in both football and basketball fare...CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt...not that well. Mtn West and American can pull it off because they have more money overall. If national prominence is a major goal, it might be wise to consider shifting more resources into basketball and less than football.

Do you really think that the appearances in major bowls by NIU and Western do that much for the long term national prominence of the MAC?

Increasing MAC basketball budgets might be the major part of improving what ZGraff points out.


Yeah, I've been saying this for years. The mid-major conferences that have made substantial jumps don't compete at the FBS level in football. Their basketball budgets are larger, they pay their coaches more, and they get better results.

This really isn't all that complicated a thing. By and large, you get what you pay for at the conference level. The MAC will continue to be a one bid basketball league until they drop a level in football.
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OU_Country
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/21/2017 6:54:46 PM 
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
Jeff McKinney wrote:
I don't want to hijack the thread, but look where schools with limited resources but yet try to be big time in both football and basketball fare...CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt...not that well. Mtn West and American can pull it off because they have more money overall. If national prominence is a major goal, it might be wise to consider shifting more resources into basketball and less than football.

Do you really think that the appearances in major bowls by NIU and Western do that much for the long term national prominence of the MAC?

Increasing MAC basketball budgets might be the major part of improving what ZGraff points out.


Yeah, I've been saying this for years. The mid-major conferences that have made substantial jumps don't compete at the FBS level in football. Their basketball budgets are larger, they pay their coaches more, and they get better results.

This really isn't all that complicated a thing. By and large, you get what you pay for at the conference level. The MAC will continue to be a one bid basketball league until they drop a level in football.


So agree with this. Supporting a higher level basketball program is more within reality for the MAC than higher level football is ever going to be for most MAC schools. Facilities and costs make this pretty straight forward don't they?

Last Edited: 3/21/2017 6:57:41 PM by OU_Country

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greencat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 3:22:05 AM 
OU_Country wrote:
greencat wrote:
I think expanding might be important. Not schools like Marshall and Temple that join and then bolt... something different.

Back when WKU was getting back into football there was talk of trying to expand in that direction by getting WKU and MTSU into the MAC which obviously never got far. Here comes the part that is going to be unpopular...

Take a school like North Alabama for example... longtime D-2 football power. They are going D-1 in football soon. Georgia State in the heart of Atlanta added football. UNC-Charlotte added football. Kennesaw State (near Atlanta) added football. The ones who are in a stopover in 1-aa (football) can move up to full D-1 in a few years. Georgia Southern and Appy went full D-1... it is not unusual for it to happen. Also more experienced programs who have seen good years in sports in the past (East Carolina, Southern Miss, etc.) might be ripe for the picking.

These conferences all now have 14 football playing schools iirc:
AAC
ACC
Big Ten
C-USA (13?)
SEC

The MAC has room for two more schools. Or more. Other conferences aren't finished expanding. It's something to think about anyway.


I've thought for a year or so that the idea of adding teams should be explored. And while football drives the public opinion and TV for now, it can't be just big football driving the decisions. It needs to be a school that actually fits in all sports. And it can't be a geographical disaster to add teams. The MAC is a bus league for the most part, and in my opinion it needs to remain that way, so I'd say no to North Alabama only for that reason. WKU would be a fantastic addition in my opinion. MTSU, Charlotte, App State would be as well.



Appy is way off the beaten path...nowhere near a commercial airport. If EKU would go full d-1 in football, a WKU - EKU package deal would work and be within a reasonable bus ride for Ohio, Fiami, Ball State (?)

Charlotte, any school in or near Atlanta, MTSU... air flight for everything except football. Middle is so proud of being in the watered down C-USA, they might not want to bolt. If Murray State would get serious about football, they have been good in basketball for a long time. But since they are not even good at 1aa, not sure they could go D-1 in our lifetime.
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 9:36:37 AM 
Phenomenal post and very interesting data/analysis.

For those questioning our ability to move up, please consider annual MAC basketball budgets. We are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Head and shoulders above the rest of the league in attendance. And if you broke out the same data posted in this thread on the basis of individual schools earning their conference "units" in the NCAA tournament, we're head and shoulders above the rest of the league in $ earned from NCAA success over the last six years.


I've seen crazier things happen.

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bornacatfan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 9:40:54 AM 
The Optimist wrote:
Phenomenal post and very interesting data/analysis.

For those questioning our ability to move up, please consider annual MAC basketball budgets. We are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Head and shoulders above the rest of the league in attendance. And if you broke out the same data posted in this thread on the basis of individual schools earning their conference "units" in the NCAA tournament, we're head and shoulders above the rest of the league in $ earned from NCAA success over the last six years.


Is that a result of the changes during Shauz/JG era lobbying those at the MAC to award more to the teams advancing rather than spitting the share equally amongst league members? Seems like we need to get in the dance to make our shares mean more then.... Saul sitting on 2 seed byes needs to make the tourney then it seems.


never argue with idiots, they bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Winter comes and asks how you spent your summer.....

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Jeff McKinney
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 10:59:42 AM 
There are some good programs in the mid south region with good upsides, but I see geography as killing any chance to get them in the MAC. I can't see Charlotte, Middle, etc, as being interested in the MAC. Even though CUSA isn't very good at the moment, its a better fit geographically. In the MAC, they would have to contend with winter time travel. In football, they recruit kids who I doubt would be interested in freezing to death on a Tuesday night in Muncie or Mt. Pleasant.

IMO, we really missed the boat on not getting WKU in the league. I seem to remember that one barrier was that the MAC presidents viewed that school as not having the breadth of academic programs to fit with the rest of the MAC.

I was there a few months ago for our basketball game there. Great facilities, nice town, etc., and the school is good academically. I think WKU would have been a good fit for the MAC.
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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 11:16:40 AM 
Jeff McKinney wrote:
There are some good programs in the mid south region with good upsides, but I see geography as killing any chance to get them in the MAC. I can't see Charlotte, Middle, etc, as being interested in the MAC. Even though CUSA isn't very good at the moment, its a better fit geographically. In the MAC, they would have to contend with winter time travel. In football, they recruit kids who I doubt would be interested in freezing to death on a Tuesday night in Muncie or Mt. Pleasant.

IMO, we really missed the boat on not getting WKU in the league. I seem to remember that one barrier was that the MAC presidents viewed that school as not having the breadth of academic programs to fit with the rest of the MAC.

I was there a few months ago for our basketball game there. Great facilities, nice town, etc., and the school is good academically. I think WKU would have been a good fit for the MAC.


WKU and Marshall...make it happen.

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OUVan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 11:59:48 AM 
I am wholeheartedly against expansion. Football is the only reason to have a big conference. It kills basketball. The ACC is unrecognizable and it's next to impossible to keep rivalries intense. Personally, I'd prefer we dropped to 10 teams. I'm not advocating we kick any teams out but it wouldn't kill us if Eastern and Northern looked for greener pastures. Then we go to an 18-game true round-robin schedule and all is right with the world, well, my world.
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greencat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 5:23:21 PM 
Jeff McKinney wrote:
There are some good programs in the mid south region with good upsides, but I see geography as killing any chance to get them in the MAC. I can't see Charlotte, Middle, etc, as being interested in the MAC. Even though CUSA isn't very good at the moment, its a better fit geographically. In the MAC, they would have to contend with winter time travel. In football, they recruit kids who I doubt would be interested in freezing to death on a Tuesday night in Muncie or Mt. Pleasant.

IMO, we really missed the boat on not getting WKU in the league. I seem to remember that one barrier was that the MAC presidents viewed that school as not having the breadth of academic programs to fit with the rest of the MAC.

I was there a few months ago for our basketball game there. Great facilities, nice town, etc., and the school is good academically. I think WKU would have been a good fit for the MAC.


When my daughter was a senior in h.s.(2009) the acceptance rate we saw listed for WKU was 95% which raised the question... who was the one out of 20 that they DID actually turn down? (Did you find it unusual that even with the sparse crowd and students on break at WKU that night, the only concessions that were open on our side of the arena were beer kiosks?)

By the way, I was looking at Forbes college rankings a while back and noticed that Belmont was ranked the #421 best college in the nation and #291 in private colleges. Next time you hear somebody gushing about how Belmont wins so many basketball game "with those stringent high academic standards" - be sure and take it with a grain of salt. Maybe bust out laughing after they leave.
(WKU is ranked like 137 spots lower than Ohio by Forbes)
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greencat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 7:53:29 PM 
Jeff McKinney wrote:
There are some good programs in the mid south region with good upsides, but I see geography as killing any chance to get them in the MAC. I can't see Charlotte, Middle, etc, as being interested in the MAC. Even though CUSA isn't very good at the moment, its a better fit geographically. In the MAC, they would have to contend with winter time travel. In football, they recruit kids who I doubt would be interested in freezing to death on a Tuesday night in Muncie or Mt. Pleasant.

IMO, we really missed the boat on not getting WKU in the league. I seem to remember that one barrier was that the MAC presidents viewed that school as not having the breadth of academic programs to fit with the rest of the MAC.

I was there a few months ago for our basketball game there. Great facilities, nice town, etc., and the school is good academically. I think WKU would have been a good fit for the MAC.


This is how much sense the current C USA makes.

Distance driving from ODU to UTEP: 2003 miles
From Marshall to FIU: 1049 miles
from UNC-Charlotte to UTSA 1251 miles

etc etc

But...
UNC Charlotte to Athens Ohio? 350 miles
WKU to Fiami? 250 miles
ODU to Kent or Akron? Barely over 500
MTSU to Ball State? 381

You see how adding two C-USA schools actually makes more sense than it seems. Especially with the distance ODU, WKU, MTSU, and UNCC are having to already travel as it is.

Last Edited: 3/22/2017 7:53:52 PM by greencat

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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 8:30:49 PM 
greencat wrote:

You see how adding two C-USA schools actually makes more sense than it seems. Especially with the distance ODU, WKU, MTSU, and UNCC are having to already travel as it is.



Why in the WORLD would a school want to move from a conference ranked #12 (in analysis above - you could argue actually #13 if AAC #s were corrected) with a conference payout of over $200M dollars all the way down to the MAC, ranked #20, who only got $96M in that time-span?

Certainly their travel budget might go down, but likely not by the roughly $1.5M a year they'd be giving up. And that's just the basketball portion. Add in football (and the associated tv/bowl game/etc payouts) and my guess is they'd be losing anywhere from $2-5M a year to make that switch.

Makes a LOT of sense for the MAC, sure, but good luck getting those schools to pick up the phone.

Meanwhile - we turn our proverbial noses up at schools who could actually help generate real revenue for the league and schools (and gain national recognition in the process - increasing enrollment/merchandise/endowments etc) but don't have the academic standards we desire? Give me a break. Does Akron? Does EMU? Does Toledo? I'm an Engineer. I get how important academics are at universities. I have zero idea why that matters when it comes to athletics though. We're not playing in a mathletes league. This is basketball and football. Unless you're worried that your school would get steam-rolled in those sports just b/c other schools would be able to recruit from a larger pool of recruits? (I'd argue that wouldn't be true - you can recruit good athletes who are also good students). I find this whole line of thinking just silly.

Last Edited: 3/22/2017 8:38:59 PM by GraffZ06

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 8:40:18 PM 
OUVan wrote:
I am wholeheartedly against expansion. Football is the only reason to have a big conference. It kills basketball. The ACC is unrecognizable and it's next to impossible to keep rivalries intense. Personally, I'd prefer we dropped to 10 teams. I'm not advocating we kick any teams out but it wouldn't kill us if Eastern and Northern looked for greener pastures. Then we go to an 18-game true round-robin schedule and all is right with the world, well, my world.


I agree that expansion is no good, for football or for b-ball. It means that each team gets a smaller piece of the TV and bowl money pie. Which means less money for facilities, etc. And trying to renegotiate contracts to increase what we get isn't going to fly, not with ESPN cutting back on on-air people to make ends meet. Twelve is a good number for both football and b-ball. I don't mind seeing some b-ball teams only once a year. I wish the MAC would dump divisions for b-ball. We're one of only two conferences still with divisions (OVC is the other). They really don't serve a purpose anymore; scheduling could still be done as if there were divisions.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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RSBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/22/2017 9:46:09 PM 
How would the rankings change if friggin' "Kron could win an NCAA tourney game - or 2? Thinking we could just blame all this on "Kron....... :)


RS Bobcat

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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/23/2017 8:45:12 AM 
I'm against expansion. I am for cutting loose the dead weight.

If you're going to use the argument that we don't spend enough to be apart of a major conference, why not remain logically consistent and look at spending within the MAC?

Our NCAA tournament wins the past 6 years are subsidizing schools spending a heck of a lot less than us annually on Men's Basketball. I can think of one school in the other division playing the minimum number of D-1 home games allowed under conference rules to qualify for MAC shared-funds, and half of those homes games are cheap buy-games against D-2, D-3 or NAIA competition.




I've seen crazier things happen.

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OU_Country
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  Message Not Read  RE: Just how bad is the MAC - a statistical reality check
   Posted: 3/23/2017 12:23:27 PM 
The Optimist wrote:
I'm against expansion. I am for cutting loose the dead weight.

If you're going to use the argument that we don't spend enough to be apart of a major conference, why not remain logically consistent and look at spending within the MAC?

Our NCAA tournament wins the past 6 years are subsidizing schools spending a heck of a lot less than us annually on Men's Basketball. I can think of one school in the other division playing the minimum number of D-1 home games allowed under conference rules to qualify for MAC shared-funds, and half of those homes games are cheap buy-games against D-2, D-3 or NAIA competition.



Is that school located in Mt. Pleasant? ;)
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