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Topic: RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Topic: RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/26/2015 2:08:05 AM

Alan--I think everyone realizes that 20 W's is a somewhat watered down standard. But I think that most people are happy this year isn't the black hole that was last year and happy to see a rather young team hit what is for us a reasonable mark, a mark that will mean that we have to have a decent MAC season.

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Joe McKinley
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/26/2015 9:34:26 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

The Optimist wrote:

Uncle Wes wrote:

20 wins counting a couple of post season victories is doable. Figure a 9-3 regular season, 1 win in the MAC tournament and 1 win in the CIT/CBI. Ohio needs to go 9-9 in MAC play to hit 20 wins. Win an extra game in the post season and the requirement for MAC play is 8-10.

Bingo. The easy OOC games and potential games after the regular season add up quick.

Like a bowl game, 20 win seasons aren't what they used to be. Like an invitation to a bowl game, if 20 wins is the standard for success in basketball, things have really gotten watered down. When Danny and his crew won 20 four years in a row, they only played 32, 28, 30 and 30 games and won 23, 20, 22 and 22. When you are guaranteed to play 31 games, 20 isn't that big a deal any longer although I'll certainly take it over last year's 10 win season.

And as a side note, 122 D 1 schools had 20 wins last year including 8 in the MAC.

Interesting number on teams hitting the 20 game benchmark last year, thanks. This translates to 35%. I wonder if the percentage of teams hitting 20 or more wins is higher or lower than historical trends.I agree that 20 wins doesn't seem to be the same as it used to be, but I don't know if the overall percentage of teams hitting that mark is more or less.

We can look back at Ohio's records and per the athletic department stats, I found 15 of our teams which hit 20 wins on the season. Two did it in the 1960s, none in the 1970s, 4 in the 1980s, 3 in the 1990s, 2 in the 2000s and 4 in the 2010s. Thirteen of the 15 participated in a post season tournament -- 8 NCAA, 3 NIT, 1 CBI, 1 CIT.

I also looked at which game in the season the team won the 20th game. For the most part, the teams considered among our best did it sooner, regardless of number of regular season games played. The 2009-10 team is an outlier -- having finished 17-14 in the regular season, but winning the league tournament and an NCAA game. Here's the data going from fewest to most games it took to get there:

24 games

1969-70 -- 20-4 regular season, 20-5 overall. Lost in NCAA first round.
2011-12 -- 24-7 regular season, 29-8 overall. Lost in NCAA Sweet 16.

25 games

1963-64 - 19-5 regular season, 21-6 overall. Lost in NCAA Elite 8.

26 games

1984-85 -- 20-7 regular season, 22-8 overall. Lost in NCAA first round.
1985-86 -- 21-6 regular season, 22-8 overall. Lost in NIT first round.
2012-13 -- 23-8 regular season, 24-10 overall. Lost in NIT first round.

27 games

1982-83 -- 19-8 regular season, 23-9 overall. Lost in NCAA second round.
1983-84 -- 20-7 regular season, 20-8 overall. No postseason.
1993-94 -- 22-7 regular season, 23-8 overall. Lost in NCAA first round.
1994-95 -- 22-8 regular season, 24-10 overall. Lost in NIT second round.

30 games

2004-05 -- 18-10 regular season; 21-11 overall. Lost in NCAA first round.
2014-15 -- 21-10 regular season, 25-12 overall. Lost in CIT quarterfinals.

32 games

1999-00 -- 18-12 regular season, 20-13 overall. No postseason.
2007-08 -- 19-11 regular season, 20-13 overall. Lost in CBI second round.

34 games

2009-10 -- 17-14 regular season; 22-15 overall. Lost in NCAA second round

We've had seven other teams play in the NCAA/NIT. Here are those teams regular season/overall records: 1940-41 (16-3/18-4), 1959-60 (15-7/16-8), 1960-61 (17-6/17/7), 1964-65 (18-6/19-7), 1968-69 (16-8/17-9), 1971-72 (15-10/15-11) and 1973-74 (16-10/16-11)

Edit: typo in 73/74 regular season record.

Last Edited: 12/26/2015 10:44:36 AM by Joe McKinley

The Optimist
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/26/2015 9:52:51 AM

Joe McKinley wrote:

Anyone know if there is some website that has a CSV file of college basketball standings going back 50 years? It'd be an easy calculation in Excel if that data is out there.

I've seen crazier things happen.

Joe McKinley
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/26/2015 10:46:12 AM

The Optimist wrote:

Joe McKinley wrote:

Anyone know if there is some website that has a CSV file of college basketball standings going back 50 years? It'd be an easy calculation in Excel if that data is out there.

Agree. That's what I searched for initially, but couldn't find. I have a mathlete home for winter break from Ohio who could easily calculate and figure out data trends if the information was out there. Absent that, I looked at Ohio's available data.

Ted Thompson
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/26/2015 12:26:46 PM

The Optimist wrote:

Joe McKinley wrote:

Anyone know if there is some website that has a CSV file of college basketball standings going back 50 years? It'd be an easy calculation in Excel if that data is out there.

You can get CSV files from College Basketball Reference (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/) but I haven't tried to query season records for the last 50 years.

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Alan Swank
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/26/2015 1:05:10 PM

Ted Thompson wrote:

The Optimist wrote:

Joe McKinley wrote:

Anyone know if there is some website that has a CSV file of college basketball standings going back 50 years? It'd be an easy calculation in Excel if that data is out there.

You can get CSV files from College Basketball Reference (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb /) but I haven't tried to query season records for the last 50 years.

Wow - what a great link Ted! Numbers, numbers everywhere. This reminds me of a book I got for Christmas when I was 11 (1966)- Great American Athletes of the 20th Century. I still have that book on the bookshelf.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/27/2015 11:00:52 AM

Might I suggest winning percentages by season rather than total number of wins as a way to rate the success of the various teams?

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The Optimist
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/28/2015 2:46:15 PM

Ted Thompson wrote:

The Optimist wrote:

Joe McKinley wrote:

Anyone know if there is some website that has a CSV file of college basketball standings going back 50 years? It'd be an easy calculation in Excel if that data is out there.

You can get CSV files from College Basketball Reference (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb /) but I haven't tried to query season records for the last 50 years.

Thanks! Great link. I found a way to pull season-to-season overall records for all of D-1. That'll work.

I've seen crazier things happen.

The Optimist
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/28/2015 3:06:53 PM

Using this link and changing the year I was able to pull from 1996 to 2014 aqnd export to Excel.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/1996-school-s...
D-1 Teams 20+ %
2014 351 102 29.06%
2013 347 101 29.11%
2012 344 104 30.23%
2011 345 100 28.99%
2010 334 98 29.34%
2009 330 100 30.30%
2008 328 93 28.35%
2007 325 94 28.92%
2006 326 66 20.25%
2005 326 63 19.33%
2004 326 63 19.33%
2003 325 65 20.00%
2002 321 67 20.87%
2001 318 66 20.75%
2000 318 71 22.33%
1999 310 61 19.68%
1998 306 59 19.28%
1997 305 61 20.00%
1996 305 53 17.38%

Additionally, in 2014, teams on average played 32.63 games. In 1996 teams on average played 28.67 games.

The big jump in both 20 win teams and percentage of teams at 20 wins was 2007-2008 which I am guessing is because the CBI started giving lots of teams an extra chance to hit 20 wins in the postseason.

Last Edited: 12/28/2015 3:26:01 PM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

bornacatfan
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/29/2015 8:20:47 PM

The Optimist wrote:

2009 330 100 30.30%
2008 328 93 28.35%
2007 325 94 28.92%
2006 326 66 20.25%
2005 326 63 19.33%
2004 326 63 19.33%

The big jump in both 20 win teams and percentage of teams at 20 wins was 2007-2008 which I am guessing is because the CBI started giving lots of teams an extra chance to hit 20 wins in the postseason.

That is enthralling looking at those numbers going from mid 60s to mid 90s. Given that the Gazelle group started the CBI in 08 it does not quite jive with the 07 jump. The CBI only took 16 teams advancing 8 one more win and 4 2 more wins etc. That does not account for the 06 and 07 jump that is sustained at almost 30 more. I suspect the scheduling and a general move across the NCAA to cupcake scheduling in early season becoming more prevalent is more the case.

As an unrelated aside the Gazelle group also tied CBI participation to the next year scheduling for example in 08 -09 being tied to the Louisville, Indiana State, Lamar weekend where all 4 were tied to each other...

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RSBobcat
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/30/2015 10:29:27 PM

11 to go

RS Bobcat

Bobcat1998
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 12/30/2015 10:42:33 PM

I know about the schedule and the horrible non-con opponents, but after 10-20, I will completely take 9-3, even if it's against nine D-3 teams. I have to think that we can win 11 games in the conference with 7 losses. 2 against balls, 2 Miami, 2 bg, 1 kent, 1 akron, 1 eastern, 1 buffalo, 1 either western or central and a wild card game..perhaps even 12-6....I know we can do it. This last game was against a team that could win the big west.

RSBobcat
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/10/2016 12:26:16 AM

10 to go

RS Bobcat

LuckySparrow
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/10/2016 11:58:05 AM

Not doubting 20

What a day at the Convo.....Wow!

bornacatfan
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/10/2016 12:18:53 PM

LuckySparrow wrote:

Not doubting 20

That s good, KenPom only has 9 games where we are considered to have a better than 50% chance of winning. That s with Miami and BG Away games in the 51% range

DanOhio72
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/10/2016 2:46:14 PM

bornacatfan wrote:

Prior to the 2006-7 season teams were limited to 28 games which included tournament games (Great Alaska Shootout, Paradise Jam, preseason NIT, etc.). Then a team could only play in 2 tournaments in a four year period. Since 2006-7, teams could play 29 regular season or 27 regular season games plus a max. of 4 tournament games or a max. of 31 games. Plus, teams could play in these extra tournaments every year. Conference and post season tournament are not counted in the max., obviously. So these tournaments could easily add up to 4 victories to a team's total before conference and other post season tournaments.

Looking at winning percentages are probably more important than 20 wins e.g. using only regular season: 20 of 24 games = 83.3%, 20 of 28 games = 71.4%, 20 of 31 games = 64.5% (ugh!). I think a better level for the bar these days is 75% or 23 regular season games. Post season tournaments are gravy or bragging points. But that begs the question, is it better to make the sweet 16 or win one of the other post season tournaments?
Dan

Toast
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/11/2016 1:37:54 PM

To win 20 will require winning 10 of the remaining 16 games and/or win several in the Tourney.

I'd bet against that.

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100%Cat
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/11/2016 2:32:46 PM

8 home games remaining: BG, WMU, Kent, Akron, NIU, EMU, Fiami, Buffalo. I see very little chance we sweep those games 8-0. I see most likely 6-2 in those games, and that may be pushing it.

8 Away games remaining: Kent, CMU, Toledo, Ball, Buffalo, BG, Akron, Fiami. If 6-2 is the home mark in the final 8, we need to pull out 4 of these on the road. Sorry guys, just don't see it happening.

I'll stick by my prediction of 18 total wins before the MAC tourney.

Last Edited: 1/11/2016 2:33:14 PM by 100%Cat

Gallia Cat
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/11/2016 3:31:09 PM

This is a young team and I am hoping for 10-8 conference record. Hopefully peaking at right time and can make a run in Cleveland.

PhiTau74
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/12/2016 9:20:35 PM

Yes I am doubting 20 wins.

oubobcatjohn
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/12/2016 9:39:58 PM

This team has a lot of growing up to do. They lack the mental toughness that championship teams have. We up 58 points at home in the second half to BGSU.

Last Edited: 1/12/2016 9:40:27 PM by oubobcatjohn

bornacatfan
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/12/2016 11:16:06 PM

oubobcatjohn wrote:

This team has a lot of growing up to do. They lack the mental toughness that championship teams have. We up 58 points at home in the second half to BGSU.

YOu kidding? Can't imagine. 1 sr 4 jrs and the rest underclassmen with 6 frosh on the roster. I would say your statement is totally true....and fairly predictable with any club of that make up.

well not totally. we weren't up 58

Last Edited: 1/12/2016 11:18:35 PM by bornacatfan

RSBobcat
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/12/2016 11:28:20 PM

Hopefully that was the meltdown of meltdowns this year. We get that one back vs a future favored opponents meltdown vs us - you can count on that happening at least once in the MAC........

RS Bobcat

OUVan
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/13/2016 11:35:23 AM

PhiTau74 wrote:

Yes I am doubting 20 wins.

This board is a wind sock.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Anyone doubting 20 wins?

Posted: 1/13/2016 11:54:10 AM

This BGSU game reminds me of the Tulsa game. We are ahead big, and look like we are going to blow the other team out. Then down the stretch we just collapse. The other team during the collapse looks like world beaters and like they've just donned NBA uniforms for an expedition against a high school team. I know that this is because of our youth and lack of playing time together as a team. We are just not yet a well-oiled machine. As much as I had hoped to see it this year, I'm more and more thinking we are a year away from having a team that will really compete for the conference crown -- either regular season or tournament. I hope I'm wrong and that we put it together before the end of the year, but with each game I'm getting less confidence in that possibility. I'm still high on Saul and his program, but he may need a few more years to get us where we all want to be. Go OHIO!

Last Edited: 1/13/2016 11:56:18 AM by OhioCatFan

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